Nov 9, 2010

Lezak's Recurring Cycle; A view from OSNW3

Lately I've been expressing my interest in the LRC and I've done a bit of digging for some personal verification of the theory. As it goes, I was informed by Jeremy Nelsen in a recent blog entry that the LRC length last year was around 60 days. Knowing the LRC is determined between Oct 1 and Nov 10, I started with the first pronounced storm system to work into the region. October 8, 2009 is where I chose to begin the cycle to see if the same storm recurred 60 days later. Indeed it did around Dec 7, 2009. Adding another 60 days from then the cycle recurs once more landing the storm system in the region around Feb 8, 2010. Again, the storm affects the region 60 days later around Apr 6, 2010. Analyzing the graph and radar loops linked below, each storm recurrence shares enough similarity to verify the 2009 60 day LRC in my opinion.

Oct 7-11, 2009
Dec 8-10, 2009
Feb 8-11, 2010
Apr 7-9, 2010


I needed another instance to verify. October 22, 2009 is where I chose to follow a second storm through the cycle. Each recurrence of this storm shared many of the similarities as did the above instance.

Oct 21-24, 2009
Dec 23-29, 2009
Feb 21-25, 2010
Apr 22-24, 2010


As of right now, I have one major interest in the upcoming LRC length. Just when will the "Great Lakes Cyclone" show it's face again? My anticipation for the 2010 LRC length is growing day to day, and as Jeremy Nelsen states in his most recent blog entry, the pattern is very close to being set! 36-38 days? That would bring a whopper of a winter storm to the region around Dec 2, 2010. We will wait and see!