Nov 29, 2013

Map Comparisons...

For the data impaired. A snap shot in time.


And then there is this map. I hate doing this, because there is more to it, but it's not a coincidence these maps look similar. The cycle is at ~57 and long range models are always a couple days quick.

If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions please let me know. Thanks for reading!

Nov 18, 2013

OSNW3|WxClimate Trends 2013-14

Consider the Rossby Wave, a wave train carrying with it repeating intervals of atmospheric conditions.

Rossby Wave

2013-14 marks the fourth year that I have been following the recurring long term long wave troughs and ridges. Since my first days of learning of them from Jeremy Nelson, with the likes of Gary LezakDoug Heady, and the AccuWx Forum crew, my curiosity piqued. To make this story short, I am still here, but now I am looking at this LRC stuff with hopes of forming a reliable point of view.

Reconsider the basics of LRC. Two of the main points can be described well with the opening statement of this blog entry.

* Long term long-wave troughs and ridges become established and also repeat at regular times within the cycle. These dominant repeating features are a clue to where storm systems will reach peak strength, and where they will be their weakest.
* The LRC isn’t just one long-wave trough, storm system, or ridge. It is a sequence of troughs and ridges that are cycling across the Northern Hemisphere.

But, it is these last two that cause confusion and are a hurdle.

* This unique weather pattern sets up every year between October and November
* The weather pattern cycles, repeats, and continues through winter, spring and into summer.

It was Scott Metsker, an advocate of critical thinking, who turned me onto looking at the cyclic patterns with a more focused, data driven, scientific approach. I was introduced to Intraseasonal Oscillations, Boreal Summer Monsoons, Northward Propagation Mechanisms, Rossby Waves, Standing Wave Harmonics, etc. These items soon became embedded into my daily operational thoughts of the cyclic patterns.

How do I get over this hurdle of when the weather pattern sets up? How does this annual unique cycling weather pattern come to life? A simple answer can be obtained by connecting the dots mentioned above. Choosing the correct source material will open a mind blowing path to "organic forecasting" based on the planets cyclic atmospheric behavior.

But, before I ever got to the hurdle, I attempted to prove that the first couple points could be utilized to project weather and climate conditions. The last two years I have developed a 'model', which is the main point to this entry, that attempts to forecast temperature and precipitation weeks and months into the future. My equations are simple and the 2013-14 version is ready to be tested and reviewed. I am looking forward to the results, no matter the outcome.

If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions please let me know. Thanks for reading!

Nov 5, 2013

Super Bowl XLVIII Weather Forecast

The headline "Super Bowl 2014: Farmers' Almanac Predicts Winter Storm for Northeast in Time for Game" is fun and exciting for storm enthusiasts. Unfortunately using the long range forecasting methods that I do, my headline is not as appealing as "Storm Bowl". One thing is obvious, the day will live up to the hype "THE FIRST OUTDOOR, COLD WEATHER SUPER BOWL". With the cycle duration at ~57 days this year, the pattern that surrounded October 11th is a point in time to key on. More data comes in for the February 2nd date around December 7th.

New York, NY Forecast Chart

New York, NY Forecast Table

October 11, 2012 Daily Wx Map