LRC'ers using a different cycle duration? How can this be?

GL sees 41.



DH sees 62.

@OSNW3 Hey Josh, You can plot all day long. You can't beat my eye. We are 100% 62 days no doubt. The cycle started July 31st.

— Doug Heady (@DougHeady) December 10, 2014

JN sees 60-63.



I think the LRC/HP was a good starting point a handful of years ago. It helped me realize that things were cycling. Kinda like learning how to dribble a basketball and run at the same time. "Seeing" the "cycle/pattern" just isn't in my vocabulary anymore. I have done my share of research/experimenting based on the core principles of the LRC/HP. I need to keep moving forward.

GL sees 41. DH sees 62. JN sees 60-63. Personally I think it's great. Are they in harmony? Below is a chart showing correlations for each duration mentioned above.

CONUS Correlations


Some Regions are noisy. Coastal usually. Continental a different story. Region 3 is locked in. Closer to the recurring long-term longwave perhaps? (analysis)

Region 3 Correlations


Originally posted on the AccuWx ISO/Rossby/BSR/TR 2014-2015 forum. If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Thanks for reading!

Current Harmonic State ~Mid 40s

Current forecast pattern compared to the dominant harmonic pattern from ~mid 40 days ago (analysis). Originally posted on the AccuWx ISO/Rossby/BSR/TR 2014-2015 forum.





If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Thanks for reading!

BSR Case Study and a RR Correlation Timelapse

Upcoming Bering Sea Rule verification case study. The first one is a lock, the second not so much. We shall see.



The mid-latitude Rossby wave train long-term correlation over the CONUS is making the way back to positive.



If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Thanks for reading!

Recurring Rossby Regional Analysis

Is one region dictating? Region 3 feedback suggests close proximity to the recurring long-term longwave.



Region 3 the quietest of all nine. ECONUS becoming noisy. Region 6 hanging onto the high frequency short-term recurring wave. (ANALYSIS)

If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Thanks for reading!

Interpreting the BSRi

A visual of the Bering Sea Rule Index. More info can be found here.



Going deeper. In Joseph Renken's 24OCT14 LR Disco he states "matches a storm threat for Central Missouri on the 12th of November" via the Typhoon Rule (based off a long range model I assume) AND then states "there will be storms during November 14th and 16th" via the BSR (based off a short range model I assume). Same or different energy? Anyway, the solutions presented below have begun to show up in the BSRi (image at bottom), and match what was discussed in JD's latest.





Plugging the ISO/RR. A ~34 day dominant harmonic gives us the solution below, connecting mid November dates bolded above.



KCOU could be looking at their first hard freeze of the season.



I think the BSRi shows this well (image below). A large negative change in SLP that basically holds there with minimal slow positive change for a few days following the referenced time frame.



Original content posted on the ISO/Rossby/BSR/TR 2014-2015 AccuWx Forum. If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Thanks for reading!

Halloween 2014 - Based On BSR/ISO/RR Connection

Below is an image of the 12Z GFS 72HR solution for the Western Pacific.


Source: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/
Observed: pac00.500fcst.12.2014101113.gif

Below is an image of the ~32 day dominant ISO/RR frequency in Region 6


Source: http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/

Utilizing the Bering Sea Rule ~20 day connection to the CONUS, 10/11 becomes 10/31. Utilizing the Intraseasonal Oscillation and Recurring Rossby ~32 day connection mentioned above, 10/31 becomes 9/29. The image below can be used as a starting point for an analog weather pattern that may take place +/- several days centered on 10/31/14 in North America.


Source: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/

The red square in the top image is Shemya, AK. We often correlate that station to Springfield, MO. Interesting solutions. Always looking, always learning. If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Thanks for reading!

OSNW3 | WxClimate 2014-15 Ensemble

This blog post will act as a "help" page for the 2014-15 ensemble member descrptions.

Framework: Use current NOAA/ESRL Radiosonde Database to analyze large-scale upper atmosphere patterns and relate the tropical Intraseasonal oscillation to Mid-Latitude recurring weather patterns.

Goal: Long Range forecasting skill of surface weather trends.

Last year I integrated a three member ensemble seeking better resolution to the cycling weather pattern. The 2013-14 method was based on specific ideas of the LRC/Heady Pattern. Since that time I have discovered that the LRC/Heady Pattern are just names for a specific harmonic in the overall Rossby standing wave. Utilizing this new information I have revised the ensemble members for this year.

Member 1 (M1) scales the 10-30 and 60-90 day daily 500mb correlation to the 30-60 day Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO).

Member 2 (M2) scales the 10-30 day daily 500mb correlation to the 30-90 day tropical Intraseasonal oscillation (ISO).

Member 3 (M3) does not utilize MJO/ISO scaling. This is a 1 to 1 connection of the mid-latitude Rossby standing wave 10-90 daily 500mb correlation.

Doing this has disconnected my data from the LRC/Heady Pattern thought process. The 2014-15 data is ready for testing/review and can be found here.

Often times this blog is neglected. Many of my ramblings can be found in the AccuWeather ISO/Rossby/BSR/TR threads. Please check it out, go here for the 2014-15 version. If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Thanks for reading!

Forecasts Begin Oct 2, 2014

A great day in OSNW3 history. LOL. I have unplugged the 2013-14 WxClimate model from automation. 2014-15 begins peer review on Oct 2, 2014. Along with the long range forecasts, an upgraded suite of products will include new analysis tools and daily verification measures.

Framework: Use current NOAA/ESRL Radiosonde Database to analyze large-scale upper atmosphere patterns and relate the Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillation to Mid-Latitude recurring weather patterns.

Goal: Long Range forecasting skill of surface weather trends.

Current Recurring Rossby Components and a 2014-15 LRC Duration Hint

Let's begin with last years dominant components. (01AUG13-31JUL14)



75-79
49-51
40-42
26-26
14-15

Requirements are such that the correlation equals 0.4 or greater for any day throughout the year. The chart below shows how using the dominant harmonic may prove to be solid guidance as the short-term, mid-term, and long-term will all have their days in the sun so to speak. With a broad brush, when one component is out of frequency the other components are not. Difficult to imagine that ~57 didn't show up at all.



Below is the average of each component in 2013-14. 10-20, 30-60, and 60-90 days.



We caught onto the LRC duration last year around this time. What about this coming season? 17-18 days are tops this morning (31AUG14). 74-76 days are right behind. However, through August, 58-60 days has been the most dominant. Likely to swerve in the coming weeks.



With the long-term likely to cycle negative soon, the short/mid-term should recover and produce new patterns for the upcoming season. Discussing this with some others, I agree we can use the 74-76 day to find the LRC duration and confirm with the short-term using standing wave harmonics. Some suggest taking the current short-term from the current long-term for this years LRC duration. Give or take a day of course.

If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. New framework, new website, new content will be live sometime around 01OCT14. Thanks for reading!

500mb Rossby Correlation

Finally had a breakthrough in my correlation programming method. I often wonder why these breakthroughs take so much time to come about. Why didn't I think of this before? A long story short, I can now correlate one days worth of soundings in four seconds. Not bad. Still room for improvement. Below are this years sounding correlations in chart format and table format.

500mb Rossby Correlation Chart 01SEP13-20JUL14 (larger chart)

(X = Duration, Y = Correlation Coefficient)

500mb Rossby Correlation Table 01SEP13-20JUL14 (larger table)

(Daily Top 10 Duration)

It is easy to depict that the dominant recurring oscillation is constantly evolving. All of the above jabber stems from THIS and THIS.

Sounding Domain (larger view)

(Keeping it local - OSNW3|WxClimate)

If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Thanks for reading! More to come.

500mb Intraseasonal Oscillation Correlation - April through June

The correlation of the 500mb flow over the OSNW3 domain. Y axis is correlation coefficient, X axis is days. Analyzing the oscillations we can apply standing wave harmonics to find the recurring weather patterns based on the dominant ISO component.

500mb ISO Correlation Apr-Jun (larger chart)

ISO and Rossby; Harmony 101

An auto-discovery "cycle" duration. Obtainable by finding the dominant ISO component. On a daily basis I am doing just that. A while back I began following a specific feature and tracking it back through the long-term recurring Rossby.

Observations


Short-term ISO on Apr-13


Midwest 500mb Correlations Apr 1-30


What are these charts showing? The correlation of the 500mb flow over the Midwest. Y axis is correlation coefficient, X axis is days. I correlate each station on a daily basis looped 10-80 days backward in time to find the most positive correlation. The change is in days of the ISO translated to the mid latitude Rossby wave. Analyzing the oscillations we can then apply standing wave harmonics to find the recurring weather patterns.

Below is a KMCI MaxT reanalysis based on ISO (r=0.716) and LRC (r=0.017). Out with the old and in with the new?



If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Thanks for reading! More to come.

Current Pattern and Prior Cycle Engagements

Give or take a day, this is where the current pattern engaged within each "cycle" aka the long-term ISO component, ~57 days.

20131008


20131203


20140130


20140329


Please attempt a stare & compare method analysis by moving the maps back and forth (click image). Currently my favorite way to get GFS guidance is via Tropical Tidbits. If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Thanks for reading!

A Short Discussion - Second Half of April Temperature Trend

The below tweet prompted a response from @Blizzardof96 on the AccuWx Forums. Always an insightful read from him.

A regional #midwest warm-up will come - http://t.co/ZbmCC8aJmU #organicforecasting #BSR @TriStatesWx @theblockking pic.twitter.com/LfhjcT7z4e

— Josh Herman (@OSNW3) March 30, 2014

His response mused me into responding. My response is below.

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In regard with the long-term ISO, late April should be watched for another cold intrusion. However, with the jet transitioning northward, I am not against departures coming in less dramatic. Take a similar jet position, in a similar transition (to winter, instead of summer), the first half of November the midwest was riddled with short lived ridges.











It is the short-term ISO that will pick up on this soon, shall the Rossby recur in such a way.

----

If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Thanks for reading!

Seeking an Auto Discovery Cycle Duration - Part 4

The patterns are cycling but the season they recur in is likely the missing feedback in the Trend. I am seeking to eliminate this seasonal hiccup. An accurate dominant harmonic correlation must be integrated into the formula. The short-term ISO may allow the trend to latch onto seasonal change and produce a more accurate projection. Testing out a new formula to calculate a dominant harmonic correlation, a recent analysis produced a short-term ISO of 18 days. This number led me to potential analogs at specific harmonics.

~18, 36, 54, 72

Correlations




The primary and second harmonic were the most dominant as there wasn't regional consistency in positive correlation past 40 days (see above images). I chose the second harmonic. Give or take a couple days, 36 days away from mid March was early/mid February. I knew that back on Feb 20 (see tweet below) the atmospheric setup produced a severe weather event that had recurred on two separate occasions in the long-term cycle.

Primary harmonic ~18. Seeing good correlation in the 2nd harmonic. Could this be recurring at the end of March? #ISO pic.twitter.com/pEXlv49uyQ
— Josh Herman (@OSNW3) March 17, 2014

----

The SPC had nothing in their D4-8 forecasts on Mar 20 or Mar 22. They did in the D3 on Mar 25 though. Very good.

Just saying. See image. The potential power of knowing the #ISO and the recurring #Rossby it produces. @OSNW3 pic.twitter.com/awCkrgH7bG

— Josh Herman (@OSNW3) March 25, 2014

----

The above observation is over a week old and the dominant ISO components have evolved. Below is the Mar 26 run. More to come.

Correlations


If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Thanks for reading! More to come.

Seeking an Auto Discovery Cycle Duration - Part 3

I am putting the 500mb sounding correlations to use and seeking the recurring weather pattern. There is talk about severe weather approaching. The SPC probabilistic outlook for 2/20-21 is below. This feature has occurred before.



I want to track this feature back in time through the ISO. I start by seeking the dominant components in the correlations. The listed correlations are the greatest positive correl from the short and long term ISO components. Short-term is on the left, long-term is on the right. Give or take a day or two on each side, I see a consistent short-term component of 20-21 days in the FEB correls. I utilize standing wave harmonics and pin point a long-term component of 60-63 days. I see a consistent long-term component of ~50 days in the DEC correls.

FEB Correlations


DEC Correlations


Observations and Forecasts


Starting with the forecast date of 2/20/14 I subtract ~60 days and find 12/21/13, I then subtract ~50 days from 12/21/13 and find 10/31/13. Simply put, from within the correlations we are seeing the movement of ISO components in relation to the recurring Rossby Wave Train and cyclic weather patterns. If there is interest in the data it can be found here. Another step closer.

Click for FEB observations
500-Millibar Height Contour Map 20140220
Storm Prediction Center Storm Reports 20140220

If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Thanks for reading!

Seeking an Auto Discovery Cycle Duration - Part 2

Stemming from seeking an auto discovery cycle duration I started running the sounding correlations on a daily basis. They now begin from the current day and loop 10-80 days backward in time.

When I first began correlating the soundings I started the sample period on 10/1/13. I recall ~15 days being the short-term component from those runs - a consensus on positive correlation from all stations. Beginning from the current day the short-term 10-20 day ISO still holds the top positive correlation, but now ~20 days has the consistent positive correlation. It seems to me that the short-term cycle of the ISO stands out as the dominant component this season.



I am very interested to see what happens to this correlation as the days move along. Should I expect the wave to continue on or will it roll back towards ~15? Am I seeing a seasonal ISO in the 70-80 day range? I should loop to 90 or beyond to get a better glimpse? It's a work in progress, but I think we are very close to finding an index to aid in calculating a daily cycle duration based on a primary harmonic. More to come.

If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Thanks for reading!