Aug 31, 2014

Current Recurring Rossby Components and a 2014-15 LRC Duration Hint

Let's begin with last years dominant components. (01AUG13-31JUL14)


Requirements are such that the correlation equals 0.4 or greater for any day throughout the year. The chart below shows how using the dominant harmonic may prove to be solid guidance as the short-term, mid-term, and long-term will all have their days in the sun so to speak. With a broad brush, when one component is out of frequency the other components are not. Difficult to imagine that ~57 didn't show up at all.

Below is the average of each component in 2013-14. 10-20, 30-60, and 60-90 days.

We caught onto the LRC duration last year around this time. What about this coming season? 17-18 days are tops this morning (31AUG14). 74-76 days are right behind. However, through August, 58-60 days has been the most dominant. Likely to swerve in the coming weeks.

With the long-term likely to cycle negative soon, the short/mid-term should recover and produce new patterns for the upcoming season. Discussing this with some others, I agree we can use the 74-76 day to find the LRC duration and confirm with the short-term using standing wave harmonics. Some suggest taking the current short-term from the current long-term for this years LRC duration. Give or take a day of course.

If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. New framework, new website, new content will be live sometime around 01OCT14. Thanks for reading!