![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjx__3YHjqZwxfm4rwfgJ6Neu-Ai6p2-lCIrT-yq9MIqBhncB_MwPANQ9vUpLgE0iiBcQSsFFjscf9yKJoofXAYXwvrOHS8sugu6Ut32CZXj87Dx01iGA_B3GlCaH9oK9_gbG5UfHMw-79/s1600/bsr004+(1).png)
Going deeper. In Joseph Renken's 24OCT14 LR Disco he states "matches a storm threat for Central Missouri on the 12th of November" via the Typhoon Rule (based off a long range model I assume) AND then states "there will be storms during November 14th and 16th" via the BSR (based off a short range model I assume). Same or different energy? Anyway, the solutions presented below have begun to show up in the BSRi (image at bottom), and match what was discussed in JD's latest.
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMNwqYiuGA2aoMrJZptSua93El1afFSpVu6y79n9hoOj86hzCfFZIh2DWEBy9eP6kTUfBftMfEhfTipsG1GMk6GYu6N358FiXmkx-B8NuwORSeur0REcdRHIqyIUn6Tv0CxKw87LnFGYY-/s1600/gfs_z500_vort_wpac_1+(1).png)
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjEVb8xCi4SDX3Wg8cZQ_aa3gbX6C-ca4CWTjK_9xD8wbVabvvsgwgdXzNoM6wtKMek7qSuzfKCCZq467U2aj0b92qz1gDsNnZRDeZdHhLgSou4wIG4A0jC6cBtBmSdSNGX8Mp2nYHndeLm/s1600/gfs_mslpa_wpac_1+(1).png)
Plugging the ISO/RR. A ~34 day dominant harmonic gives us the solution below, connecting mid November dates bolded above.
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLRd0-9Gv5F4Tm_FAAST-RiNvgbLpPOjUZgOVG4TBMGLwSfl3I0wjJI14t8REK4wgCzMl-BhcflO_HurWH7XrOXiZyxttdw7U9SURZ47dq5-vH12z146Gf081NH3b0HNEzeERwODND90IP/s1600/dwm500_test_20141012.gif)
KCOU could be looking at their first hard freeze of the season.
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiXAJGvsKFFZJGJwq2EYAAlE2uPVJy6kkEszA6yAkoqdSI6QdlDSlH4sty48HOR6buJqwTkinliuvnRBk85J0aCbp-w6IG4X-Xc3y46TImUv-rAK5UFNQWPiH2K7DVnwM9Afb4qTevZ85yS/s1600/1415mbCOU_image011.gif)
I think the BSRi shows this well (image below). A large negative change in SLP that basically holds there with minimal slow positive change for a few days following the referenced time frame.
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiAveFGzIe0rUwGjjlCzfiSS4fz67RCUaHcGrjTN52KDWtMQqfLe3WTG6GFSXX53DeVXc7V0UszsnCJe9SjwvFdn63TA41xikgjmHBumyi8BnuK5AAGA-hps-K-7_eUh_2WxxJTfC5PMBlK/s1600/bsr11.gif)
Original content posted on the ISO/Rossby/BSR/TR 2014-2015 AccuWx Forum. If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Thanks for reading!