Halloween 2014 - Based On BSR/ISO/RR Connection

Below is an image of the 12Z GFS 72HR solution for the Western Pacific.


Source: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/
Observed: pac00.500fcst.12.2014101113.gif

Below is an image of the ~32 day dominant ISO/RR frequency in Region 6


Source: http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/

Utilizing the Bering Sea Rule ~20 day connection to the CONUS, 10/11 becomes 10/31. Utilizing the Intraseasonal Oscillation and Recurring Rossby ~32 day connection mentioned above, 10/31 becomes 9/29. The image below can be used as a starting point for an analog weather pattern that may take place +/- several days centered on 10/31/14 in North America.


Source: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/

The red square in the top image is Shemya, AK. We often correlate that station to Springfield, MO. Interesting solutions. Always looking, always learning. If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Thanks for reading!