The Intraseasonal Oscillation Evolution of Jonas Based on the 30-90 Day Average Oscillation Frequency

The Intraseasonal Oscillation evolution of #Jonas based on the 30-90 day average oscillation frequency.









+/- 3 Days





If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know.

Daily Analysis of the Recurring Rossby Wave Train

RRWT analysis suggests the Four Corners are closest to the long-term longwave in 2015-16. Click image for larger view. More charts here


I had a feeling it was going to look a bit ominous when DEC came calling again. RRWT 21-25 Day 2TM anomaly. Odds of this happening? Click image for larger view. More maps here.


If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know.

The Evolution of the Daily Trend - Suggested Weather Pattern to Begin 2016

In early September I Tweeted the January 2016 Daily Trends for Wausau, Milwaukee, Madison, and Oshkosh.

#RRWT freqs since 8/1 suggest a BN start to the new year for #wiwx http://t.co/qlFvUgOAXB @JPWIWX #elnino #rebound pic.twitter.com/ZoF9C0VFsx

— Josh Herman (@OSNW3) September 9, 2015

The Daily Trends showed a time period of below average temperatures for all locations to begin the new year. Since that day, the CONUS weather pattern correlation envelope has evolved daily. This group velocity is monitored in standing wave notation, so I would expect that the Daily Trends wouldn't change all that much.

With the Bering Sea Rule showing a storm to impact the ECONUS, I felt it time worthy to look at what the Daily Trends currently have in store for the new year.

Animated GIF: The GFS modeled #BSR suggests a system will affect the ECONUS to start 2016. (See image) pic.twitter.com/QLppcnEMRJ

— Josh Herman (@OSNW3) December 10, 2015

The Daily Trends model run of 12/10 shows a similar pattern response but the temperature amplitude from average is less dramatic. The overall idea now is that temps will remain at or above average, instead of 5 to 7 degrees below average. We shall see!

In regard to the storm, below are possible Recurring Rossby Wave Train systems, based on current individual correlation waves of ~70 and ~50 days. If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Click on the images for a larger view. Thanks for reading!

WARNING: #Christmas #Weather

WARNING: #Christmas #weather Tweet. Per #BSR and #RRWT. More info at link: https://t.co/E4nU7Rmoqs pic.twitter.com/Bqn20gRvaF

— Josh Herman (@OSNW3) December 7, 2015

Click the forum link in the Tweet above. It will provide a 15 second read of what I was thinking with the posted images. If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know.

Seasonal Variation of a Signature Rossby Wave Train

Oh and of course, the July version, 7/5, ~45 days from 8/19. But, it's a new pattern! Lol. Easy to follow https://t.co/Rbo9ApVzHI @OSNW3

— Josh Herman (@OSNW3) November 11, 2015

Above is a Tweet designating dates of previously high correlated patterns for the storm occurring in the middle of the CONUS on 11/11/15.
(US Radar Loop). The image below depicts the correlation frequencies of the recurring RWT and focuses on the significant disturbance. Click on the image for a larger view. (bigger yet)

If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Click on the images for a larger view. Thanks for reading!

Fundamental Frequency

A changing of the guard? Notice the temporal elongation of frequency, ~30 transitions to ~35 and ~60 transitions to ~70. A phasing of the wave is taking place with a moderate ~40 now showing up.



This paints an anomalously warm ECONUS the next few weeks, with a late July, early Aug reprieve.



My calcs are showing an upper 40s for a Lezak/Heady style cycle length. A forecast value going above 50 as we head through September. I wonder what these guys will come up with through Summer and into Fall. Both of their blogs are listed in the Blog Roll on the right.



If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Click on images for larger views. Thanks for reading!

Random Verification

I did a quick verification on my forecast maps that use the ESRL mapping. I picked a random projection range. 6/29-7/3. See the observed surface temp in attached image. Projection images listed below. (more here).



us-t2125-20150608-20150629-20150703
us-t1620-20150613-20150629-20150703
us-t1115-20150618-20150629-20150703
us-t0610-20150623-20150629-20150703

Seems my short-term forecasts 6-15 days were off a bit in this instance. The 16-25 days did OK. If you need help decoding the file name list above, see this link.

If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Click on images for larger views. Thanks for reading! #workinprogress

Using the Bering Sea Rule to Predict Severe Weather Events and Verifying the Prediction with the Recurring Rossby Wave Train

The images in the Tweet below show the Bering Sea Rule correlation to the CONUS. Based on our research (page 46), Shemya, AK connects to Columbia, MO. The premise is that observed weather in the Bering Sea region shows up in the CONUS 17-21 days later. Click on the Tweet below to see the larger images. (More predictive data related to BSR here)

Potential severe weather events ~May14 & ~May20 based on #BSR? What do you think @TriStatesWx and @jnelsonweather? pic.twitter.com/BWI50VQhy9

— Josh Herman (@OSNW3) May 3, 2015

JD suggests deep south and wants a harmonic relationship based on the Recurring Rossby Wave Train.

The PNA has been cycling ~32 days. (click on PNA) As far as the CONUS 500s, strong correlation exists in these windows as well. (click on REGIONAL+). Seems that fancy LRC length has been showing up in the REGIONAL+ the past 10 days too. Harmonics for everyone.

Getting to the point.

~May 20 going back ~32 days...
150416_rpts
150417_rpts
150418_rpts
150419_rpts

~May 20 going back ~LRC days...
150331_rpts
150401_rpts
150402_rpts
150403_rpts

~May 20 going back ~64 (nothing special)
150318_rpts
150319_rpts

The current frequency and harmonic certainly show a possibility. I know JN has been using late Oct as an analog for his version of the LRC lately. If you go back to Nov 16, it could connect to ~May 20, if you like averaging 185 days to find the wheelhouse prophecy. On a side note, going further into the future with the GFS, #chasecation2015 might get sucked into a vortex.

@islivingston @TriStatesWx @jnelsonweather let the hilarity ensue. See yellow box. #BSR #GFS :) pic.twitter.com/z0dtuAEBlX

— Josh Herman (@OSNW3) May 3, 2015

If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Thanks for reading!

High Correlation in the Mid 30 Day Frequency

I am currently recording near 0.8 correlation in the mid 30 day frequency in Region 7. I plotted the 500s for two stations (KILX and KILN) in what I label Region 7 to show the pattern consistency. Region 7 consists of stations in the Ohio Valley (Central). This region has all stations reporting within the daily top 10 frequencies.





I would suspect that if someone analyzed CONUS 500 maps during this time frame there would be regions that do not match up within this frequency. Analysis suggests that a transient cycle frequency with multiple phasing cycles is taking place. Something similar to a standing wave. Not an all encompassing macro cycle that Lezak suggests. See the heat-map table for more.

Lezak tweeted me that his cycle range has been 43-50 days since 10/1. The chart below shows this range correlating well near the end of November and early December. The wheelhouse time when Lezak discovers his cycle length each year, then back dates it to when it "began" in October. The past few months his range of days hasn't been performing well.



Calculating the median and average of the top-10 daily frequencies yield results very close to what Lezak states as his cycle length range. Most recently the range has been 42-49 days. The chart below shows the range of the median and average since 8/1/14.



If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Click on the images for a larger view. Thanks for reading!

A Random ERSL Map Verification Analysis

I am not sure how I will conduct auto verification for these ESRL map type projections. A random case below.

-Surface Temperature Anomaly
-Observed 20150308-20150312


-Surface Temperature Anomaly Forecast
-Initialized 20150215, 21-25 Day Forecast 20150308-20150312


This might look OK, but it is just one instance. I am archiving all of the past projections here. On a side note, I am currently working on auto verification for the Trends. It's a long way off yet, but it is in the works. All of this is an ongoing work in progress. If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Thanks for reading!

A Transient Cycle Length with Multiple Phasing Cycles

So where was I? Ah yes, I dropped the high amplitude and frequency states (ISO short-term component, 10-20 days) from the CONUS output and plotted the 30-90 day correlations exclusively. More

The map below shows the RAOB stations that I collect data from. I don't collect Canada or Mexico and it seems I randomly do not collect in the deep south US. I blame it on laziness. I am super lazy.



My thoughts are not well organized or educated. They are likely difficult to follow. I will attempt to explain them in short detail. The image below shows which region the highest correlations stem from. The range is 0-1. The higher the value, the more high correlations stem from that region. Example; the daily analysis for 2/21 shows region 5 has 9% of it's stations reporting a top 10 value. Region 8 60% and region 9 67% of it's stations in the top 10. This correlation could be considered "east based", where this region shows the most correlation.



These correlations are charted in a heat-map like table form. The image below shows the first 21 days of February. The left most table is the top 10 cycle lengths, listed from left to right, 1 through 10. The table directly to the right is the corresponding correlation values. The 3 tables to the right are mode, median, and average of cycle lengths for the previous 30 days, since December 1st, and since August 1st. The entire table can be found here.



A quick analysis of the heat-maps suggest a transient cycle length with multiple phasing cycles taking place. Similar to a standing wave. If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Thanks for reading!

Framework: Use current NOAA/ESRL Radiosonde Database to analyze large-scale upper atmosphere patterns in standing wave notation. Described specifically to harmonics, reflecting the temporal/transient behavior of the frequency wavelengths in correlation and relating Intraseasonal Oscillation to Mid-Latitude recurring weather patterns.

Goal: Forecasting skill of upper-air and surface weather trends.

I dropped the high amplitude and high frequency states and plotted the 30-90 day correlations exclusively

I dropped the high amplitude and frequency states (ISO short-term component, 10-20 days) from the CONUS output and plotted the 30-90 day correlations exclusively.



What is this junk? Back when I followed Lezak's Recurring Cycle and/or the Heady Pattern, comparing 500mb maps with the naked eye was the only way to find/follow the cycle. I quickly learned everyone has a different eye. Instead of looking for blessings from the cyclic masters I decided to seek the cyclic nature in data. Much like how they (LRC/HP) compare maps I decided to compare legitimate peer reviewed oscillations in a similar manner. Rather than look for a recurring cycle at ~50 days every couple days (or what is perceived as the cycle length) in maps, I formulate correlation of a 10 to 90 day range from sounding data on a daily basis. I find the dominant recurring patterns and plot the output.

A correlation example. Say I am finding the correlation for the date 9/1, for day 20 in the 10-90 day range. The data arrays that are used to find the correlation consist of data within the dates 9/1 thru 8/12 and 8/11 thru 7/22. I find the correlation for day 10 through day 90 and plot the highest correlations. This is what is plotted in the tables of the image above. The left table is the region* the top correlations in the middle table originated from, the middle table is the top 10 oscillation frequencies (aka "cycle" length) and the right table is the corresponding correlation value of the middle table. At the very bottom of the table is mode, mean, and average statistics as well.

*I categorize the CONUS RAOB stations in regions of climate. I simply label them region 1 through 9, see image below.


Framework: Use current NOAA/ESRL Radiosonde Database to analyze large-scale upper atmosphere patterns in standing wave notation. Described specifically to harmonics, reflecting the temporal/transient behavior of the frequency wavelengths in correlation and relating Intraseasonal Oscillation to Mid-Latitude recurring weather patterns.

Goal: Forecasting skill of upper-air and surface weather trends.

This is just quick summary that stemmed from this twitter thread. I will likely add to the entry in the future. If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Thanks for reading!

LRC'ers using a different cycle duration? How can this be?

GL sees 41.



DH sees 62.

@OSNW3 Hey Josh, You can plot all day long. You can't beat my eye. We are 100% 62 days no doubt. The cycle started July 31st.

— Doug Heady (@DougHeady) December 10, 2014

JN sees 60-63.



I think the LRC/HP was a good starting point a handful of years ago. It helped me realize that things were cycling. Kinda like learning how to dribble a basketball and run at the same time. "Seeing" the "cycle/pattern" just isn't in my vocabulary anymore. I have done my share of research/experimenting based on the core principles of the LRC/HP. I need to keep moving forward.

GL sees 41. DH sees 62. JN sees 60-63. Personally I think it's great. Are they in harmony? Below is a chart showing correlations for each duration mentioned above.

CONUS Correlations


Some Regions are noisy. Coastal usually. Continental a different story. Region 3 is locked in. Closer to the recurring long-term longwave perhaps? (analysis)

Region 3 Correlations


Originally posted on the AccuWx ISO/Rossby/BSR/TR 2014-2015 forum. If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Thanks for reading!

Current Harmonic State ~Mid 40s

Current forecast pattern compared to the dominant harmonic pattern from ~mid 40 days ago (analysis). Originally posted on the AccuWx ISO/Rossby/BSR/TR 2014-2015 forum.





If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Thanks for reading!

BSR Case Study and a RR Correlation Timelapse

Upcoming Bering Sea Rule verification case study. The first one is a lock, the second not so much. We shall see.



The mid-latitude Rossby wave train long-term correlation over the CONUS is making the way back to positive.



If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Thanks for reading!

Recurring Rossby Regional Analysis

Is one region dictating? Region 3 feedback suggests close proximity to the recurring long-term longwave.



Region 3 the quietest of all nine. ECONUS becoming noisy. Region 6 hanging onto the high frequency short-term recurring wave. (ANALYSIS)

If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Thanks for reading!

Interpreting the BSRi

A visual of the Bering Sea Rule Index. More info can be found here.



Going deeper. In Joseph Renken's 24OCT14 LR Disco he states "matches a storm threat for Central Missouri on the 12th of November" via the Typhoon Rule (based off a long range model I assume) AND then states "there will be storms during November 14th and 16th" via the BSR (based off a short range model I assume). Same or different energy? Anyway, the solutions presented below have begun to show up in the BSRi (image at bottom), and match what was discussed in JD's latest.





Plugging the ISO/RR. A ~34 day dominant harmonic gives us the solution below, connecting mid November dates bolded above.



KCOU could be looking at their first hard freeze of the season.



I think the BSRi shows this well (image below). A large negative change in SLP that basically holds there with minimal slow positive change for a few days following the referenced time frame.



Original content posted on the ISO/Rossby/BSR/TR 2014-2015 AccuWx Forum. If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Thanks for reading!

Halloween 2014 - Based On BSR/ISO/RR Connection

Below is an image of the 12Z GFS 72HR solution for the Western Pacific.


Source: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/
Observed: pac00.500fcst.12.2014101113.gif

Below is an image of the ~32 day dominant ISO/RR frequency in Region 6


Source: http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/

Utilizing the Bering Sea Rule ~20 day connection to the CONUS, 10/11 becomes 10/31. Utilizing the Intraseasonal Oscillation and Recurring Rossby ~32 day connection mentioned above, 10/31 becomes 9/29. The image below can be used as a starting point for an analog weather pattern that may take place +/- several days centered on 10/31/14 in North America.


Source: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/

The red square in the top image is Shemya, AK. We often correlate that station to Springfield, MO. Interesting solutions. Always looking, always learning. If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Thanks for reading!

OSNW3 | WxClimate 2014-15 Ensemble

This blog post will act as a "help" page for the 2014-15 ensemble member descrptions.

Framework: Use current NOAA/ESRL Radiosonde Database to analyze large-scale upper atmosphere patterns and relate the tropical Intraseasonal oscillation to Mid-Latitude recurring weather patterns.

Goal: Long Range forecasting skill of surface weather trends.

Last year I integrated a three member ensemble seeking better resolution to the cycling weather pattern. The 2013-14 method was based on specific ideas of the LRC/Heady Pattern. Since that time I have discovered that the LRC/Heady Pattern are just names for a specific harmonic in the overall Rossby standing wave. Utilizing this new information I have revised the ensemble members for this year.

Member 1 (M1) scales the 10-30 and 60-90 day daily 500mb correlation to the 30-60 day Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO).

Member 2 (M2) scales the 10-30 day daily 500mb correlation to the 30-90 day tropical Intraseasonal oscillation (ISO).

Member 3 (M3) does not utilize MJO/ISO scaling. This is a 1 to 1 connection of the mid-latitude Rossby standing wave 10-90 daily 500mb correlation.

Doing this has disconnected my data from the LRC/Heady Pattern thought process. The 2014-15 data is ready for testing/review and can be found here.

Often times this blog is neglected. Many of my ramblings can be found in the AccuWeather ISO/Rossby/BSR/TR threads. Please check it out, go here for the 2014-15 version. If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Thanks for reading!

Forecasts Begin Oct 2, 2014

A great day in OSNW3 history. LOL. I have unplugged the 2013-14 WxClimate model from automation. 2014-15 begins peer review on Oct 2, 2014. Along with the long range forecasts, an upgraded suite of products will include new analysis tools and daily verification measures.

Framework: Use current NOAA/ESRL Radiosonde Database to analyze large-scale upper atmosphere patterns and relate the Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillation to Mid-Latitude recurring weather patterns.

Goal: Long Range forecasting skill of surface weather trends.