Mar 25, 2013

Archived Forecast - April - WIWX

Having a little fun with the cats over at Wisconsin Weather. I tossed together an April forecast for the Facebook Group page. Hopefully I'll be allowed to stick around. LOL.

Originally posted on the Wisconsin Weather Facebook page.

The traditional etymology of the word April is from the verb aperire, which means "to open". (Wiki) This definition is precise, and correlates well with the month that signifies the beginning of the growing season here in Wisconsin. Average temperatures increase ~15 degrees and daylight hours extend over one hour. These two ingredients, warmth and longer days, encourage the spring growth that shapes our lifestyle.

Utilizing intraseasonal oscillations (ISO) and applying a cycling weather pattern called Lezak's Recurring Cycle (LRC), we attempt to project weather conditions weeks and months into the future. The outlook for April, based on our current interpretation of both, is listed below. (

•Below average precipitation.
•Below average temperatures first half of month.
•Above average temperatures second half of month.
•Two notable storms will take place within the region;
Around the 3rd. (Draco, Orko)*
Around the 10th. (Brutus, Fryer, Plato)*
•The final week should include a steady warm-up followed by a frontal passage providing a sharp cool down to end the month.

The time frame of the second and final week of the month could include severe weather chances just outside the state border. Stick with Wisconsin Weather forecasters Justin Poublon and Hunter Anderson for daily forecasts.

More information on LRC and ISO.

*These are Weather Channel named storms that have recurred within the particular cycling weather pattern. See the OSNW3|WxClimate LRC calendar - - for more information on a particular storm.

If there are any questions or thoughts on the forecast or the presented material, please let us know by leaving a comment. Thanks for reading!

Mar 1, 2013

Midwest Snowfall - February and Meteorological Winter Forecast Results

Actual surface data is obtained from the Southern Region Headquarters of the National Weather Service. A handful of stations do not provide complete data from the website above and I am forced to find it manually via other sources. These stations are listed below with their data source.

Oshkosh, WI; WI-WN-4 CoCoRaHS
Ann Arbor, MI; MI-WS-11 CoCoRaHS
Houghton, MI; MI-HG-1 CoCoRaHS
Escanaba, MI; NWS Station GLADSTONE NO 2
Traverse City, MI; NWS station TRAVERSE CITY MUNSON
Champaign, IL; IL-CP-47 CoCoRaHS

February Forecast Snow Results
February Forecast "Snowfall" results
13 out of the 40 stations finished within +/- 30% of forecast total.
February Forecast "Days With Measurable Snowfall" results
17 out of the 40 stations finished within +/- 2 days of forecast total.
Met Winter Forecast Snow Results
Met Winter Forecast "Snowfall" results
12 out of the 40 stations finished within +/- 30% of forecast total.
Met Winter Forecast "Days With Measurable Snowfall" results
21 out of the 40 stations finished within +/- 4 days of forecast total.

For more information visit the OSNW3|WxClimate Maps webpage.

If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the cycle or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading!