In the debate of previous cycle year patterns repeating in the new cycle year, I took the time to analyze two specific back to back cycle years. 1977-78/78-79 and 2009-10/10-11. While certain 'signature' features seem to repeat, the overall patterns are quite different. For the storm that was labeled the 'signature' storm in 2010-11 it doesn't surprise me that a conclusion could be made from a GFS forecast model that it may repeat in the 2011-12 cycle year. However, I am confident that the patterns leading up to it and following it are/will be different. I will provide links to my analysis below.
LRC 1977 thru 1979
For the 1977-79 time frame I choose one 'signature' feature to follow. To get a better glimpse of what the LRC calendar looked like for that time period please follow the Calendar7779 link. Click on the links below to bring up the maps for those days and follow the cycle through starting with Jan-9, 1978 and Jan-4, 1979. The signature feature in the middle atmosphere is noticeable, but as the days stray from the feature the pattern takes on a different look and feel from one another. See the Calendar7779 for daily surface observations as well. You will need the DjVu viewer (link to download below) to open the maps. I recommend it as I believe this is a good example of yearly differences.
1977-78 cycle averaged 59 ish days. (Start with 1/9/78)
http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/dwm/1978/19780109-19780115.djvu
http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/dwm/1978/19780116-19780122.djvu
1978-79 cycle averaged 57 ish days. (Start with 1/4/79)
http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/dwm/1979/19790101-19790107.djvu
http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/dwm/1979/19790108-19790114.djvu
Calendar7779
http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/Calendar7779.html
Original Blog Entry & Data
http://osnw3lrc.blogspot.com/2011/03/oshkosh-winters-of-1977-78-1978-79.html
http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/lrc_7779.xlsx
DjVu Viewer Download
http://www.celartem.com/en/download/djvu.asp#win
LRC 2009 thru 2011
Bringing myself closer to the present and watching events I can actually remember I analyzed the past two years. I defined my time keeper as the signature storm from 2010-11 and followed it back through 2009. It is certainly a feature that could be considered a repeat feature but in reality it is all actually quite different.
Calendar091011
http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/Calendar091011.html
Map links for easy access
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20090925.html
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20091116.html
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20091231.html
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20100223.html
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20100416.html
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20100603.html
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20100724.html
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20100911.html
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20101026.html
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20101211.html
If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading!
Sep 18, 2011
The LRC Versus The GFS; Let The Fun Begin
I've been designing several LRC analysis tools the past few months and recently put the final touches on a 500mb height trend tool that will forecast said trends and compare them against the forecasts of the 7-14 day GFS (Global Forecast System). I am hopeful this tool will aid in my learning and understanding of the LRC.
The guts of the tool begin with 3 basic steps; the ability to access daily forecast and observed 500mb heights, extraction of the data into a configurable format and the task of manipulating the data into a structured database. The rest then is up to the beholder. Admittedly, a large amount of work which has culminated into a very user-friendly interface.
At the moment I have two specifics I want to accomplish with this tool. One, provide a sense of confidence in acknowledging when the patterns begin to stray from their predessors. With the past years cycle currently morphing into a new cycle, following the cycle in this manner should do just that. Two, is to contend the GFS 14 day 500mb forecast accuracy with that of the LRC 500mb trend accuracy. A trend that is simply a total mean blend of prior cycle heights. This coming winter season will provide a perfect battle ground. Below is a graph representing the latest cycle forecast period. Incredible how the LRC predicted the latest geopotential height plunge while the 7-14 day GFS forecast failed to do so.
(Green Bay, WI 500mb Forecast using the LRC - Aug 8 thru Sep 26, 2001)
It is noticeable in the graph above that the actual 500mb numbers do not precisely follow the LRC trend. That fault is directly tied to my personal interpretation of the theory as I am using the average amount of days (50) between recurring features. A self interpolation of the trend is required.
I am excited for my sophomore year following the LRC and what will be learned about the cyclic patterns within our atmosphere. For the entire set of the 2010-11 LRC season 500mb height forecast graphs please click here. If there is an interest in learning how to use the tool or obtaining any other tool I used to build it, feel free to inquire. I will be more than happy to share and exchange ideas. It is conceivable that this tool can be used for any location that has the required data available.
If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading!
----
Tools (right click - save as)
- Daily 500mb Height Extraction
- GFS Forecast 500mb Height Extraction
- 500mbDailyForecast Dynamic Data & Charts
If there are any problems or questions let me know.
The guts of the tool begin with 3 basic steps; the ability to access daily forecast and observed 500mb heights, extraction of the data into a configurable format and the task of manipulating the data into a structured database. The rest then is up to the beholder. Admittedly, a large amount of work which has culminated into a very user-friendly interface.
At the moment I have two specifics I want to accomplish with this tool. One, provide a sense of confidence in acknowledging when the patterns begin to stray from their predessors. With the past years cycle currently morphing into a new cycle, following the cycle in this manner should do just that. Two, is to contend the GFS 14 day 500mb forecast accuracy with that of the LRC 500mb trend accuracy. A trend that is simply a total mean blend of prior cycle heights. This coming winter season will provide a perfect battle ground. Below is a graph representing the latest cycle forecast period. Incredible how the LRC predicted the latest geopotential height plunge while the 7-14 day GFS forecast failed to do so.
(Green Bay, WI 500mb Forecast using the LRC - Aug 8 thru Sep 26, 2001)
It is noticeable in the graph above that the actual 500mb numbers do not precisely follow the LRC trend. That fault is directly tied to my personal interpretation of the theory as I am using the average amount of days (50) between recurring features. A self interpolation of the trend is required.
I am excited for my sophomore year following the LRC and what will be learned about the cyclic patterns within our atmosphere. For the entire set of the 2010-11 LRC season 500mb height forecast graphs please click here. If there is an interest in learning how to use the tool or obtaining any other tool I used to build it, feel free to inquire. I will be more than happy to share and exchange ideas. It is conceivable that this tool can be used for any location that has the required data available.
If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading!
----
Tools (right click - save as)
- Daily 500mb Height Extraction
- GFS Forecast 500mb Height Extraction
- 500mbDailyForecast Dynamic Data & Charts
If there are any problems or questions let me know.
Sep 1, 2011
Waiting For The Next Genesis
We are now entering September and I want to keep track of where we are in the LRC patterns that we grew to love last year. I think the two maps below suggest we are still in the same pattern.
Sep 25, 2010
Sep 4, 2011
Almost identical and about a year apart in LRC terms. 345 days apart. Roughly 49 days per cycle as we are in the seventh cycle of the 2010-2011 LRC.
The warm up we are experiencing is the "big warm up" we've been talking about during each cycle this past year here in the Midwest through the Great Lakes region.
Sep 22, 2010
Nov 11, 2010
Dec 31, 2010
Feb 18, 2011
Apr 10, 2011
May 31, 2011
Jul 17, 2011
Sep 1, 2011
It will be interesting to see what happens in middle October when it cycles back around. It's been ingrained into my brain that the cycle will change come October as the troughs and ridges set up in slightly different areas of the continent. I hope we can pool our efforts and watch the new cycle come alive! Exciting times!
And on that note, I admit, my time allotted for this analysis is limited so watching it live from last September until now is all I have currently, but if I had extra time I would follow this back into September of 2009 and see where the pattern was back then and watch it through the 2009-10 LRC year, etc.
The dates I chose to analyze were derived from the LRC calendar I try to keep up to date as best I can. The calendar can be found here. If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading.
Sep 25, 2010
Sep 4, 2011
Almost identical and about a year apart in LRC terms. 345 days apart. Roughly 49 days per cycle as we are in the seventh cycle of the 2010-2011 LRC.
The warm up we are experiencing is the "big warm up" we've been talking about during each cycle this past year here in the Midwest through the Great Lakes region.
Sep 22, 2010
Nov 11, 2010
Dec 31, 2010
Feb 18, 2011
Apr 10, 2011
May 31, 2011
Jul 17, 2011
Sep 1, 2011
It will be interesting to see what happens in middle October when it cycles back around. It's been ingrained into my brain that the cycle will change come October as the troughs and ridges set up in slightly different areas of the continent. I hope we can pool our efforts and watch the new cycle come alive! Exciting times!
And on that note, I admit, my time allotted for this analysis is limited so watching it live from last September until now is all I have currently, but if I had extra time I would follow this back into September of 2009 and see where the pattern was back then and watch it through the 2009-10 LRC year, etc.
The dates I chose to analyze were derived from the LRC calendar I try to keep up to date as best I can. The calendar can be found here. If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading.
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