My Interpretation of the Recent Patterns - What is Your Take?

Oct 25, 2012

Feb 10, 2013 - 108 ish days from above date (54 average)

The map below, of the specific pattern in the cycle between the cycles mentioned above, may be the odd ball out. Perhaps an interference behavior of a wave? Some science.

Dec 17, 2012 - 53 ish days from Oct 25, 55 ish days from Feb 10.

Below is a graph of the 500mb numbers for a five day stretch encompassing this comparison of each cycle. The blue and green match up pretty well while the red is slightly different.

----

A step further, another map to map. The "cancer", as it has been mentioned, to following the cycle. Was this feature introduced back in the December cycle? No real glimpse of it back in October. Node or antinode?

Dec 19, 2012 - See Calendar

Feb 12, 2013 - 55 ish days from Dec 19.

If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the cycle or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading!

Thoughts On Upcoming Patterns

Could this be a sign of new patterns in a new cycle? A 50-51 cycle duration? I find analyzing 500mb maps is a fun pastime. The old 'stare and compare' method.

Aug-18 correlates to the GFS Oct-6
Aug-25 correlates to the GFS Oct-14



I've been following a couple cycles as of late. The 2011-12 46-ish day cycle has had a few last gasps and I picked up on a 40 ish day cycle that quickly shrunk down to 30 ish day cycle (see Aug-18 and Sep-21 and go backwards for an example) that I am losing confidence in, but now...

Sep-7 correlates to the GFS Oct-6, it grows a day or two...
Sep-12 correlates to the GFS Oct-15



----
(first posted on Sep-24, 2012)

Cycle length is still shrinking. New energy is being added to the patterns.

(Aug-30)


(GFS Oct-3: 204hr Forecast Sep-24)


I love me some map to map comparisons. Knowing the LR models are usually a day or two early, put this comparison in motion and it would seem the GFS has the right idea with a near 40 day cycle length.

----
(first posted on Sep-10, 2012)

Back to back to back troughs forecast (0-168hr) in the BS/GOA. Correlates well w/ first half of August E CONUS troughs and the 2011-12 #LRC.

— Josh Herman (@OSNW3) September 7, 2012

There has been activity in the Bearing Sea and Gulf Of Alaska lately that will soon resemble a unique pattern of this years LRC.

(Pacific 500 Analysis: Aug-29/Sep-9)


This particular pattern started to take form during the middle of September last year and then solidified itself a spot in the 2011-12 cycle the first half of November. Recurring the second half of December, first half of February, second half of March, first half of May, second half of June, first half of August, and now likely to recur one more time the second half of this September. (Follow this pattern through the seasons by utilizing the 2011-12 LRC Calender A linked date will bring up the 500 map for that day)

Hmmm... #LRC March 1st vs September 4th via.me/-4r2u4wk via.me/-4r2u8cw
— Joe Renken (@TriStatesWx) September 4, 2012

The 2011-12 cycle patterns are transitioning. Since middle August the duration of the cycle has seemed to slowly shrink. In other words the patterns are cycling through at a quicker pace and likely morphing as "new energy" is introduced with our strengthening jet stream. For example, the first half of August is showing a strong resemblance to the GFS 500 forecast beginning September 13. 40-ish day duration. Back to back to back eastern half of CONUS/CANADA troughs.

(Aug-4, 2012)


(GFS Sep-10: 075hr Forecast Sep-13)


It would seem there should be three or four consecutive troughs entering the eastern half of CONUS/CANADA during the second half of September which is a pattern that has been recurring since last November. Soon after this has taken place, confidence is high that 2012-12 cycle patterns will begin to reveal themselves with a more eye popping appeal. Game on?

If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading!

Eastern WI - May 10, 1990 & the LRC

The latest snowstorm on record to affect our area took place on May 10, 1990. I was living in Suamico, WI at the time and remember it well. Obviously, these record conditions sparked my interest of following it through the cycle to analyze the behavior of our atmosphere that year.

Below is the archived map from May 10, 1990. Easy to see from the map that there was a potent low pressure centered in Lower MI streaming cooler air into WI helping to produce the snow that fell.

Analyzing the data and maps from 1989-90 I concluded the cycle averaged around 54 days. Starting with May 10, 1990 moving back through the year I ran into these dates.

Oct-10, 1989 - 19891009-19891015.djvu
Dec-02, 1989 - 19891127-19891203.djvu - 54 days
Jan-25, 1990 - 19900122-19900128.djvu - 55 days
Mar-19, 1990 - 19900319-19900325.djvu - 54 days
May-10, 1990 - 19900507-19900513.djvu - 53 days

By using the archived maps above I was able to pick out the storm in every cycle with ease. I would suspect this storm could have been labeled a 'signature storm' that season. It recurred on schedule in the Great Lakes each and every time. Simply amazing. See the image below. Right click, select open in new tab/window to see a larger version.

The image below is of a tree that fell onto our garage that day due to the weight of the heavy snow.

(Suamico, WI - May 10, 1990)

Besides that particular storm the late winter season of 1989-90 had an extreme warm-up on March 12, 1990 that melted snow quickly creating flood conditions. I suspect that is me in the flood waters and I am sure I was wearing knee high rubber boots in the photo below.

(Suamico, WI - March 12, 1990)

Sticking with the same duration of around 54 days I was able to pick the dates listed below when following this particular pattern through the cycle. I am questioning my January comparison as it wavers from the average a little bit, but with this comparison the average is around 53 days. It is darn close.

Oct-05 - 19891002-19891008.djvu
Nov-27 - 19891127-19891203.djvu - 53 days
Jan-17 - 19900115-19900121.djvu - 51 days
Mar-12 - 19900312-19900318.djvu - 54 days
May-04 - 19900430-19900506.djvu - 53 days

By using the archived maps above I was able to pick out the western trough in every cycle with ease. It recurred on schedule and brought a southerly flow into the Great Lakes each time. Again, simply amazing. See the image below. Right click, select open in new tab/window to see a larger version.

If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading! To see the archived maps click on the links next to the dates. You will need the Djvu Browser Plug-In to view the maps.

Signature Event #1

October 11-16
November 25-30
January 10-15
(first posted Dec-8, 2011)
(updated Jan-22, 2012)

I am labeling this a 'signature event' because of the significant warm up, temps 10+ degrees above average, followed by a cool down bringing temps back to average or slightly below and the half inch plus of precipitation in each of the first two cycles, a little less than a half inch in the third cycle. The cycle duration around this recurrence is about 46-ish days. It's plain to see the trough was oppositely tilted from one cycle to the next. The high pressures on both coasts could be considered culprits for the tilting and the squishing of the November trough tightly together while the Atlantic high then aided in creating a 'cut-off' low to form. Perhaps slowing the cycle a bit. The January version of the pattern had hints of both previous versions within it.

500mb Plot Comparison

(click on the image for a larger view)

Radar Comparisons
(20111011-16_usradar)

(click image for the loop - 14MB)

(20111125-30_usradar)

(click image for the loop - 14MB)

(20120110-15_usradar)

(click image for the loop - 14MB)

500mb Height and Max Temp Trends

I am anticipating the recurrence of this pattern in middle January. I wrote the previous sentence back on Dec 8, and now with this update the recurrence of this pattern will take place near the end of February and beginning of March. Will it bring snow or will it bring rain? If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading!

Consecutive LRC Cycle Years & Repeat 'Signature' Features Within Them

In the debate of previous cycle year patterns repeating in the new cycle year, I took the time to analyze two specific back to back cycle years. 1977-78/78-79 and 2009-10/10-11. While certain 'signature' features seem to repeat, the overall patterns are quite different. For the storm that was labeled the 'signature' storm in 2010-11 it doesn't surprise me that a conclusion could be made from a GFS forecast model that it may repeat in the 2011-12 cycle year. However, I am confident that the patterns leading up to it and following it are/will be different. I will provide links to my analysis below.

LRC 1977 thru 1979
For the 1977-79 time frame I choose one 'signature' feature to follow. To get a better glimpse of what the LRC calendar looked like for that time period please follow the Calendar7779 link. Click on the links below to bring up the maps for those days and follow the cycle through starting with Jan-9, 1978 and Jan-4, 1979. The signature feature in the middle atmosphere is noticeable, but as the days stray from the feature the pattern takes on a different look and feel from one another. See the Calendar7779 for daily surface observations as well. You will need the DjVu viewer (link to download below) to open the maps. I recommend it as I believe this is a good example of yearly differences.

1977-78 cycle averaged 59 ish days. (Start with 1/9/78)
http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/dwm/1978/19780109-19780115.djvu
http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/dwm/1978/19780116-19780122.djvu

1978-79 cycle averaged 57 ish days. (Start with 1/4/79)
http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/dwm/1979/19790101-19790107.djvu
http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/dwm/1979/19790108-19790114.djvu

Calendar7779
http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/Calendar7779.html

Original Blog Entry & Data
http://osnw3lrc.blogspot.com/2011/03/oshkosh-winters-of-1977-78-1978-79.html
http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/lrc_7779.xlsx

DjVu Viewer Download
http://www.celartem.com/en/download/djvu.asp#win

LRC 2009 thru 2011
Bringing myself closer to the present and watching events I can actually remember I analyzed the past two years. I defined my time keeper as the signature storm from 2010-11 and followed it back through 2009. It is certainly a feature that could be considered a repeat feature but in reality it is all actually quite different.

Calendar091011
http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/Calendar091011.html

Map links for easy access
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20090925.html
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20091116.html
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20091231.html
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20100223.html
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20100416.html
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20100603.html
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20100724.html
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20100911.html
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20101026.html
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20101211.html

If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading!