Eastern WI - May 10, 1990 & the LRC

The latest snowstorm on record to affect our area took place on May 10, 1990. I was living in Suamico, WI at the time and remember it well. Obviously, these record conditions sparked my interest of following it through the cycle to analyze the behavior of our atmosphere that year.

Below is the archived map from May 10, 1990. Easy to see from the map that there was a potent low pressure centered in Lower MI streaming cooler air into WI helping to produce the snow that fell.

Analyzing the data and maps from 1989-90 I concluded the cycle averaged around 54 days. Starting with May 10, 1990 moving back through the year I ran into these dates.

Oct-10, 1989 - 19891009-19891015.djvu
Dec-02, 1989 - 19891127-19891203.djvu - 54 days
Jan-25, 1990 - 19900122-19900128.djvu - 55 days
Mar-19, 1990 - 19900319-19900325.djvu - 54 days
May-10, 1990 - 19900507-19900513.djvu - 53 days

By using the archived maps above I was able to pick out the storm in every cycle with ease. I would suspect this storm could have been labeled a 'signature storm' that season. It recurred on schedule in the Great Lakes each and every time. Simply amazing. See the image below. Right click, select open in new tab/window to see a larger version.

The image below is of a tree that fell onto our garage that day due to the weight of the heavy snow.

(Suamico, WI - May 10, 1990)

Besides that particular storm the late winter season of 1989-90 had an extreme warm-up on March 12, 1990 that melted snow quickly creating flood conditions. I suspect that is me in the flood waters and I am sure I was wearing knee high rubber boots in the photo below.

(Suamico, WI - March 12, 1990)

Sticking with the same duration of around 54 days I was able to pick the dates listed below when following this particular pattern through the cycle. I am questioning my January comparison as it wavers from the average a little bit, but with this comparison the average is around 53 days. It is darn close.

Oct-05 - 19891002-19891008.djvu
Nov-27 - 19891127-19891203.djvu - 53 days
Jan-17 - 19900115-19900121.djvu - 51 days
Mar-12 - 19900312-19900318.djvu - 54 days
May-04 - 19900430-19900506.djvu - 53 days

By using the archived maps above I was able to pick out the western trough in every cycle with ease. It recurred on schedule and brought a southerly flow into the Great Lakes each time. Again, simply amazing. See the image below. Right click, select open in new tab/window to see a larger version.

If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading! To see the archived maps click on the links next to the dates. You will need the Djvu Browser Plug-In to view the maps.

Weather Event Forecasting - Second Week Of May

I've updated the 500mb maps below with GFS 500mb forecast maps for the upcoming second week of May. They are the first map of each comparison and look different (there is yellow in them) than the archived maps. Again, the LRC provides a significant confidence factor in the long range models forecast. How will the surface weather affect us this Spring versus last Fall? Whatever it is, this version will provide a significant learning opportunity for all who follow the cycling weather patterns.

As for using the LRC trends to provide a weather forecast for Oshkosh, they point to a 2 in 5 chance of preicp for the 8th, but we are in the odd cycle of the 'every other' add-on theory. If it works out, it probably won't rain at OSNW3. High temps should range in the 60s. As for the 14th, the 2 in 5 chance of precip presents itself again but this recurrence is in the even cycle of the 'every other' add-on theory. This leads me to believe it will precipitate at OSNW3. Highs should be in the 60s. We'll see what happens.

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originally posted on Apr 1, 2012
Potential #1 & #2 recurred on schedule. With these recurrences the precipitation made it back into NE WI. Potential #1 dropped over an inch. The cold air made it into the area as suspected as well. Places in northern WI had freezing overnight lows. These recurring features should repeat between May 8 and May 14. Maps and radar are updated. Perhaps some thunderstorms in Potential #1 and a cool and damp spell in Potential #2 ??? We shall see.

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originally posted on Mar 19, 2012
These systems are on track and on schedule for the Midwest. This is another example of how the LRC provides a greater confidence factor in the long range models forecast.  In particular the GFS.  I have included the forecast 500mb maps for each potential. They are the first map in each sequence and are labeled as such.  As the time creeps closer I will be updating the forecast maps...

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originally posted on Feb 14, 2012
The two events below will return during the last ten days of March. With the jet beginning the annual northward retreat around this time it will be interesting to see how much cold air comes down from Canada after Potential #2 moves out. This cold air could leave us with daily maximum temperatures in the 30's if it transpires. I would assume many spring activities will already be in full swing by this time and it will be a kind reminder that the winter of 2011-12 never really happened.

Potential #1 - May 8-9, 2012
Here at OSNW3 we recorded an inch of rain with this system back in early November, since that occurrence though, each counterpart has lacked the precipitation element as the system keeps ejecting east rather than northeast leaving Northeast WI out of the action. Colorado, Kansas, and Missouri on the other hand, have seen great energy released with this recurring storm system.

(Nov 3, 2011 - 500mb)

(Dec 21, 2011 - 500mb)

(Feb 5, 2012 - 500mb)

(Mar 23, 2012 - 500mb) 

(May 9, 2012 - 500mb)

Nov 2-11, 2011 - Radar
Dec 19-27, 2011 - Radar
Feb 3-11, 2012 - Radar
Mar 21-30, 2012 - Radar

Potential #2 - May 13-14, 2012
This storm initially created the case to be labeled the 'signature' storm for this years LRC in our area. It was our first good snowfall of the year. It is the 'notable event' in the OSNW3-Oshkosh Winter Forecast labeled 'Snowstorm/Cold' in each cycle. Here at OSNW3 we recorded over 3 inches of precip and over 2 inches of snow in a 3 day period in the first cycle. Without phasing of the jet stream the split flow has kept this system screaming further south and east each time through the cycle. While it gives the area a chance at precip and a sudden drop in temperature it certainly lacks 'signature storm' criteria.

(Nov 9, 2011 - 500mb)

(Dec 27, 2011 - 500mb)

(Feb 11, 2012 - 500mb)

(Mar 28, 2012 - 500mb)

(May 13, 2012 - 500mb)

If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. To follow the cycling patterns please click on the 500mb maps and navigate back and forth from each of dates paying close attention to the overall flow.

A Biography of the 2010-2011 LRC 'Signature Storm'

As the ‘signature storm’ approaches, I think it provides a good lesson on how the cycling patterns change through the seasons. It is evident that the feature, the 'signature storm', exists and that a ridge is setting up in relatively the same spot in similar type seasons like May and Sep if you believe we can go that far back. I like Sep 10 and Jun 30 forecast 500mb maps, 294 days apart, which averages 49 days. The 2010-2011 LRC is cycling between 45 and 54 days.

(Sep 10, 2010 - Cycle A)

(Jun 30, 2011 - Cycle 6 - Forecast)

Exciting to see the seasonal twists as the jet becomes more powerful peaking in Feb and then weakening as we roll through into Jul and Aug. The 500mb plots of the 'signature storm' cycle 1 through 5 are linked below.

Oct 26, 2010
Dec 11, 2010
Feb 1, 2011
Mar 22, 2011
May 11, 2011

For the sake of labeling and keeping a tracking system closely related to the professionals, I labeled Aug 1 through the first 50 days this season "Cycle A" and then each cycle after that numerically 1-6.

The dates I chose to analyze were derived from the LRC calendar I try to keep up to date as best I can. The calendar can be found here. If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading.