Every Other Cycle?!

Update: June 26, 2012

"If you look at this play what we're trying to get is a seal here, and a seal here, and we're gonna run this play in the alley" - Vince Lombardi

Two cycles ago. Mar 19, 2012.

And two cycles before that. Dec 14, 2011.

Did you see it coming?

Next week. Jun 18, 2012 (Jun 11 - 18Z GFS Forecast)

Turns out Jun 20, 2012 was the day. 
Good job GFS, just 2-ish days early...

Below are duration calculations to put the time frames into perspective.

Dec 14 to Mar 19 = 97 days / 2 cycles = 48.5 days
Dec 14 to Jun 18 = 188 days / 4 cycles = 47 days
*Mar-19 to Jun-18 = 92 days / 2 cycles = 46 days **
**As jdrenken has proven, the computer models are usually a day or two quick this far out. Click on his forum handle to learn more.

Mar-19 to Jun-20 = 94 days / 2 cycles = 47 days

As always, all these comparisons boil down to the beholders interpretation of the cycle and I can't emphasize this feeling enough. My interpretation of the cycle is lined out in my cycle calendar. If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading!

Eastern WI - May 10, 1990 & the LRC

The latest snowstorm on record to affect our area took place on May 10, 1990. I was living in Suamico, WI at the time and remember it well. Obviously, these record conditions sparked my interest of following it through the cycle to analyze the behavior of our atmosphere that year.

Below is the archived map from May 10, 1990. Easy to see from the map that there was a potent low pressure centered in Lower MI streaming cooler air into WI helping to produce the snow that fell.

Analyzing the data and maps from 1989-90 I concluded the cycle averaged around 54 days. Starting with May 10, 1990 moving back through the year I ran into these dates.

Oct-10, 1989 - 19891009-19891015.djvu
Dec-02, 1989 - 19891127-19891203.djvu - 54 days
Jan-25, 1990 - 19900122-19900128.djvu - 55 days
Mar-19, 1990 - 19900319-19900325.djvu - 54 days
May-10, 1990 - 19900507-19900513.djvu - 53 days

By using the archived maps above I was able to pick out the storm in every cycle with ease. I would suspect this storm could have been labeled a 'signature storm' that season. It recurred on schedule in the Great Lakes each and every time. Simply amazing. See the image below. Right click, select open in new tab/window to see a larger version.

The image below is of a tree that fell onto our garage that day due to the weight of the heavy snow.

(Suamico, WI - May 10, 1990)

Besides that particular storm the late winter season of 1989-90 had an extreme warm-up on March 12, 1990 that melted snow quickly creating flood conditions. I suspect that is me in the flood waters and I am sure I was wearing knee high rubber boots in the photo below.

(Suamico, WI - March 12, 1990)

Sticking with the same duration of around 54 days I was able to pick the dates listed below when following this particular pattern through the cycle. I am questioning my January comparison as it wavers from the average a little bit, but with this comparison the average is around 53 days. It is darn close.

Oct-05 - 19891002-19891008.djvu
Nov-27 - 19891127-19891203.djvu - 53 days
Jan-17 - 19900115-19900121.djvu - 51 days
Mar-12 - 19900312-19900318.djvu - 54 days
May-04 - 19900430-19900506.djvu - 53 days

By using the archived maps above I was able to pick out the western trough in every cycle with ease. It recurred on schedule and brought a southerly flow into the Great Lakes each time. Again, simply amazing. See the image below. Right click, select open in new tab/window to see a larger version.

If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading! To see the archived maps click on the links next to the dates. You will need the Djvu Browser Plug-In to view the maps.

The 'Big Warm Up" Repeats Again

The 'Big Warm Up' as named by WeatherWatch12 this year is the part of the pattern that brought Oshkosh an Indian summer in late September and early November, an exceptionally warm New Years Eve, subsequent warm-ups in mid February, early April, late May, and now this weekend. It's evident from the maps below that the jet stream and pattern features are further north but yet still plainly visible into mid July. It's gonna get hot this weekend and early next week (Jul 16-18).

(500mb map from May-31)

(500mb forecast from Jul-12 for Sunday Jul-17)

For more information on this part of the pattern please click on the "WeatherWatch12" text linked above. Jeremy Nelson drops knowledge on this feature and it's recurrence in this years LRC. I also had an entry about this part of the pattern back in April, it can be found here.

The dates I chose to analyze were derived from the LRC calendar I try to keep up to date as best I can. The calendar can be found here. If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading.

Signature Patterns & Backyard Temperature Forecast

I have been hedging my bets for this weekends warm-up to take place for many weeks now. I am able to because of my confidence in Lezak's Recurring Cycle. Each time through the cycle at OSNW3 this pattern has produced multiple days that were 10+ degrees above the Oshkosh average maximum temperature.

Nov 8-12 (+15°)
Dec 30-31, Jan 1 (+17°)
Feb 14-18 (+12°)

10+ degrees above average on any day between Apr 7-11 would put OSNW3 into the 60's. These types of temperatures will feel mighty nice after enduring the last gasp of winter the past two weeks. For an interactive look at this particular pattern I would suggest opening each of the 500mb maps, linked below, in their own browser tab. Then move the maps forward in time from each instance to the dates mentioned above paying particular attention to the movement of the atmosphere. It is evident a warm up was coming months ago due to the cycling pattern.

- Nov 5, 2010
- Dec 26, 2010
- Feb 14, 2011

One can do the same thing for the cold snap that followed the Great Lakes Cyclone, more popularly known as this years LRC 'signature' storm, by opening the links below and working through them as explained above. A persistent northwest flow set up ushering in cooler than average air.

- Oct 26, 2010
- Dec 11, 2010
- Feb 1, 2011
- Mar 23, 2011

(500mb Heights - 14 days centered on dates above)


More in depth information about these particular patterns within this years LRC can be found in the WeatherWatch12 and LRCweather blogs. Following these and other cycle analysis blogs acts as a catalyst for taking the bull by the horns. Recently I have been working with OSNW3 surface data attempting to forecast temperatures using the LRC. I came up with a very crude and simplistic formula that proved to have a 50% verification within a 10-15 degree range during the previous cycles 3 and 4. A good success rate for predicting temperatures a month or more in advance in my opinion. See graphs below for an analysis of previous cycles and a backyard temperature forecast through mid May using the formula. A larger view of each graph can be found by clicking on the image. The forecast graph for cycle 5 says it should certainly be near or above 60 here at OSNW3 this weekend!





The formula I created finds the mean deviation from the 30 year average for the particular day using the temp from that day, the day before and the day after within each cycle. The graph legend consists of the following acronyms. Cycle Max (CycMax), Cycle Min (CycMin), Forecast Max Temp (ForMaxT), Forecast Max Temp Range Hi (ForMaxTRH, Forecast Max Temp Range Lo (ForMaxTRL), Actual Max Temp at OSNW3 (ActualMaxT), and the Oshkosh Average Max Temp (OshAvgMaxT).

If there are any questions about my research or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks!