Too Early To Make Predictions For Spring Storm Outbreaks?

The other day on the AccuWx Forums LRC Thread, Apo Agathos, questioned if it was too early to make predictions for spring storm outbreaks? It has become painfully obvious that many weather enthusiasts are once again very close to giving up on winter and setting their sites towards chasing thunderstorms.

Recently I completed the work to get the daily maximum temperatures stuffed into Google Motion Charts. This output allowed me to analyze daily Midwest temperature changes as an entity. With the 'spring storm' question on my mind I was on the lookout for a drastic change from warm to cool which can potentially heighten the possibility.

The first notable frontal passage is visible in early March.



The second comes during the same pattern the next cycle in late April.



Click on the images to navigate to the Motion Chart. Choose the correct month from the menu on the right. Click the play button and watch the pretty colors of the temperature flux in the Midwest. The chart is fully controllable allowing the user to change the chart type, select locations, scroll through time, etc. The forecast numbers are updated daily and are grouped by month.

When using the theory to project weather conditions months in advance it is necessary to give or take a day for the given time frame. Currently the forecast data is derived using a 52 day cycle length. The 500mb plots for this pattern in previous cycles are below. A link to the surface plot can be obtained by clicking on the 500mb plot image.

Nov 18, 2012


Jan 10, 2013


If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the theory or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading!

A Quick Rant - When Use Of The Theory Fails

Majority of people who watch the cycling weather patterns do not often exploit them when the use of them fails. I am in a position of experimentation and examination. Personally I want to see it both succeed and fail. The theory is not linear and that simple fact is blatantly obvious beginning day two of the quest to keep up.

When using the theory to project surface observations a scenario for a consistent fail is in the current pattern. Within the visually chaotic mess that this pattern holds, the previous cycle threw the 'trending' aspect for a 180° flip-flop loop. A few factors that give claim to "it all being part of the cycle" can be used for this one; seasonal twist, every other cycle, etc.

(Oct 2-7; Nov 24-29; Jan 16-21)

(click on the image for a much larger view)

Fantastic. Yes, I can see the pattern. Yes, I know surface variables are difficult to trend due to friction this close to the earth. But, like the many in the Pacific Northwest, even in the Midwest the middle of the atmosphere is blowing it for any form of "sensible" weather recognition with this pattern.



But wait! If one has been following the cycles for a few years it is likely they have grasped the many concepts of the patterns and how they might act from season to season, or cycle to cycle. Am I safe to conclude that next cycle, in Oshkosh, the below average trend will not come to fruition and it is highly likely we will experience what we did to begin December? Temperatures much above average because of the potential "every other cycle" rule?! We will see. :)



If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the theory or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading!

But What Is It Good For?

"I confess that in 1901, I said to my brother Orville that man would not fly for fifty years... Ever since, I have distrusted myself and avoided all predictions." -- Wilbur Wright, 1908

After a few muses from @kcwxguy I found myself knee deep fiddling with Google Visualization. It soon became a fresh way to visualize my forecast model data based on LRC theory. The winter of 2012-13 begins my third year following the cycling weather patterns of the northern hemisphere. An eagerness to learn has grown into a passion. From a once inconceivable backyard snowfall forecast in 2010, to a winter outlook for Oshkosh in 2011, to seasonal forecast numbers for the entire Midwest in 2012-13. The idea has certainly grown on me.

As we get "pattern change" shoved down our throats the next two weeks I want to reiterate the fact that this "pattern change" is not something new to the eyeballs that have been following the cycling patterns of 2012-13. The particular pattern has been projected for months. It is evident in all of the trends for the cities that will be affected. I will focus on temperatures. Below is a screenshot animation from the OSNW3|WxClimate site of a Google Geo Chart depicting the maximum temperature deviation for the Midwest cities selected for trends this season. There are three images in the animation. An image for Dec 1-14, Dec 15-28 and Dec 29-31. Clicking on the image will take you to the maps website for a larger view.



What isn't on the media radar yet, well at least I haven't seen it, is the extreme warm-up that could take place in the Midwest the last few days of 2012. Below is another screen capture of the OSNW3|WxClimate site. This Google Motion Chart is showing all of the cities max temperature departures from average for the month of December. By following the thick blue line it is evident something warm will be recurring near the end of the year. The same idea is shown above in the third frame of the animation.


(From the Event Mapping page click on "Motion Chart" to use the chart yourself)

We all know a weather prediction made one month out is seldom followed through to fruition. Most of us will not trust a computer generated forecast more than 3 days out. A major asset of the theory, in my opinion, is it's ability to predict significant "pattern change". Give or take a day, I am confident this will all take place, even before the populous had hints from long range computer models.

If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading!

Actively Seeking A Cycle Length

On Nov-4 I posted about a seasonal twist. The outcome of the so-called twist led me down a path of a new and extended cycle duration leaving an unanswered question as to why. I passed on the attempt to answer the question. Instead I followed this new cycle duration for another 10 ish days until the patterns yet again switched on me. Or did they? The cycle duration flux is documented in the comments of the linked entry above. To make a long story short, time has pushed forth and the map comparison below is where I am at in the cycle as of this posting. I will call it "55-ish" days.

(Sep-29)


(Nov-25 | 18Z GFS Nov-16)


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For the past year I've been working on a way to utilize the knowledge of cycling weather patterns. While I know there will be better ways to present the massive amounts of data in future renditions, with potential future partners, I decided I needed to pull the trigger with what I had built to see how it would perform in a real time environment. The host website will likely always be "under construction" but under most circumstances will always be in production. I invite everyone reading to gander at what I think our cycling weather patterns have to offer for weather and climate forecasting.



Click on the screen shot to navigate to the trends. I welcome all feedback on the site, the data, the 'model' output... anything, as it will help me improve/disregard the product in the future.

If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading!

AccuWx 25 vs LRC 25

The numbers are in for the @AccuWx 25 vs the #LRC comparison! You be the judge! tiny.cc/awxlrc0412 May comparison begins soon. #wiwx
— Josh Herman (@OSNW3) May 2, 2012

--- Original Entry Below (4/4/12)

AccuWeather.com released a 25-Day Forecast that can help users make informed decisions about long-term plans. ow.ly/a4Rsw
— Meghan Evans ☂ (@WxMeghanEvans) April 4, 2012

Accuweather debuts new 25-day forecasts. In the words of John McEnroe, "You cannot be serious!" wapo.st/Het9eT
— Minnesota Forecaster (@MNforecaster) April 4, 2012

I promote looking into a crystal ball. Especially if one has the means and tener cojones. I agree with what the AccuWx how to article states... "following trends in the weather is key".

(AccuWeather's 25 Day Forecast Trend for Oshkosh, WI)

(OSNW3's April Forecast Trend based on the LRC for Oshkosh, WI)



Analyzing the two trends above it is apparent they differ in the long range. I've cached the webpage that generated the AccuWx trend on April 4. It can be found here. As the month moves forward I will be comparing the trends and grading the verification. Fun, fun, fun. (the LRC based trends will update automatically as the actual temperatures are updated every couple days)

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If someone unfamiliar with the LRC looks at my trends they'll most likely blow them off as some hodge podge BS, as many did toward the AccuWx 25 in the comments of the article linked above. But, on the other hand, if one is a little familiar with the LRC and follows along once and a while, then it is possible they will understand just what the trends provide. By analyzing the 500mb maps and data one can find the cycle within each year. It's a task not for the lighthearted. One thing to remember about the LRC is that it is not one storm that cycles, it is the longwave troughs and ridges that cycle. Seasonal positioning of the jet brings twists to each cycling pattern. It is important to 'live' the cycle. Taking a couple weeks off makes it very difficult to pick back up. I keep a 'LRC calendar' to aid in following along each year. Consider it my crutch. Total satisfaction can really only be achieved by following along.

I am bias to my region when following the LRC. However, this year I branched out and created more trends for other cities. The branching out proves to me that it would take quadruple the time and effort to follow along in all corners of the CONUS. I commend all who do. Currently I trend min/max temps and precip days. Each trend is laid out as if it were one cycle. Vertically scrolling up and down will lead the trends in and out of different cycles. The x's are the daily min/max deviation from the long term temperature average for the corresponding days in each cycle. The green line is the median deviation from average for the corresponding days in each cycle. The black line is the long term average. Precip occurring during a cycle is given a value of five on the scale. If precip occurs again in another cycle on the corresponding day, five is added to the number for the next cycle trend. Some days have better odds of precipitation because precipitation was recorded on the corresponding days in the cycle. They are displayed as a higher vertical line. For the days that have been archived, a "green cap" on the vertical line means precipitation was recorded on that day. Basically a tiered bias growing in potential each recurrence of recorded precip on corresponding days in the cycle.

All of the min/max temp and precip trends based on the LRC can be found here.

I truly believe anyone can make weather projections long term using the LRC. I've spent an great deal of effort coding this particular 'LRC model' and I am always trying to improve it. If you have any suggestions please let me know. It's all very obvious how a long range forecast can aid the average person, like myself. I use the LRC trend everyday.

A potential situation for sensitive vegetation in the long range temp forecast based on the #LRC. twitpic.com/8xjo4f
— Josh Herman (@OSNW3) March 17, 2012

If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading!

Oshkosh Winter Prediction - Cycle 2 Performance Review

Back in late November when I pulled the first cycle data together to produce the Oshkosh Winter Forecast I banked on the cycle averaging 48 days per cycle. As we LRC followers know the cycle breathes and is never a static length. To this day the cycle in 2011-12 is averaging 46 ish days. This obviously means the dates and times of month I chose to pin point events is skewed slightly. With that said, the original forecast is still comprehendible with minimal self interpolation.

The original forecast called for the cycle 2 forecast period to fall between Jan-3 through Feb-19. In actuality it is Jan-2 through Feb-17. The OSNW3 LRC Calendar can shed more light on the cycle duration. Below I compare the OSNW3 surface observations between Jan-2 through Feb-17 against the LRC based forecast conditions for Jan-3 through Feb-19 made in late Nov and analyze how they have performed in forecast cycle 2.

Prediction
Days with Measurable Snow (0.1" or greater)
Forecast Cycle 2 = 12 days (Jan-3 thru Feb-19)
- Actual
Actual Cycle 2 (Jan-2 thru Feb-17)
- 13 days with 0.1" or greater snowfall.
- 92% accuracy

Prediction
Total Snow Accumulation
Forecast Cycle 2 = 17 inches of snow (Jan-3 thru Feb-19)
- Actual
Actual Cycle 2 (Jan-2 thru Feb-17)
- 11.7 inches of snow
- 1.41 inches of precipitation. A 10:1 snow to water ratio would have equaled 14.1 inches of snow had it all been snow.
- 68% accuracy

Prediction
Temperatures
The data trend leads me to believe that there will be enough warm spells to compensate for the majority of cold air events within each cycle leading to Above Average temperatures for the winter. The numbers tell me 1 to 3 degrees above average each cycle. Don't get me wrong, there will be some cold stretches this winter, there is no doubt about it, but with warm-ups scattered about may make the overall winter not seem so harsh temperature wise.
- Actual
- Daily Maximum temperatures were an astonishing 7 degrees above the (81-10) 30 year average for the actual cycle 2 period.

Note on temperatures... using the LRC I was convinced temps would be above average while others were calling for a cold winter. The calculated average temp from cycle 1 was 3+ degrees above average. I biased the prediction on the low side because the pros were calling for colder than average. I may have learned a lesson. The LRC data doesn't lie and it is a very powerful forecasting tool.

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What should we expect in Cycle 3?
Sticking with the original forecast numbers made back in November for cycle 3, we should expect about 4 days with measurable snowfall accumulating around 9 inches. Temperatures should stay above average for the cycle once again. Spring should arrive mid March and rarely regress to a winter feel like most early spring events do. When using the LRC forecast trend below remember to give or take a day, or two!

(Temperature & Precipitation Chances Forecast Trend For Oshkosh)


If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading!

Oshkosh Winter Prediction - Cycle 1 Performance Review

How is the winter forecast based on the LRC performing as we begin a new cycle? I will admit my thinking in November was that long term climatology would prevail and not become the preventing factor in snow production as it has been thus far. The much advertised 'split flow jet' and 'bottled up AO' are the culprits in busting my snowy predictions this cycle. As for temperatures, however, the prediction of a warmer than average winter is steadfast. Overall the middle of the atmosphere keeps on the cycling and we can look forward to the 2011-12 LRC feature patterns again and again. Below are some numbers to quantify the first cycle forecast performance.

Prediction
Days with Measurable Snow (0.1" or greater)
Cycle 1 = 13 days (Nov-16 thru Jan-2)
- Actual
- 5 days with 0.1" or greater snowfall.
- 14 days with Trace or greater snowfall.
- 38% accuracy

Prediction
Total Snow Accumulation
Cycle 1 = 16 inches of snow (Nov-16 thru Jan-2)
- Actual
- 2.4 inches of snow
- 2.18 inches of precipitation. A 10:1 snow to water ratio would have equaled 21 inches of snow had it all been snow.
- 15% accuracy

Prediction
Temperatures
The data trend leads me to believe that there will be enough warm spells to compensate for the majority of cold air events within each cycle leading to Above Average temperatures for the winter. The numbers tell me 1 to 3 degrees above average each cycle. Don't get me wrong, there will be some cold stretches this winter, there is no doubt about it, but with warm-ups scattered about may make the overall winter not seem so harsh temperature wise.
- Actual
- Daily Maximum temperatures are currently 4.5 degrees above the (81-10) 30 year average.

What should we expect in Cycle 2? The trends show a mild start to January with a cool down by the end of the month. February should continue with what we saw in much of December but hopefully this time around most of the precipitation will fall as snow. The most recent snowfall and wind event (Jan 1-2) should recur sometime around Feb-17. Sticking with the original forecast made back in November for this cycle, we should expect about 12 days with measurable snowfall accumulating around 17 inches. Temperatures should stay above average for the cycle once again. For an idea of when the precipitation may occur see the OSNW3 LRC Calendar 2011-12 and follow the blue highlighted dates. Remember to give or take a day, or two!

(500mb Forecast Trend For Green Bay)


(Temperature Forecast Trend For Oshkosh)


If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading!

Signature Patterns & Backyard Temperature Forecast

I have been hedging my bets for this weekends warm-up to take place for many weeks now. I am able to because of my confidence in Lezak's Recurring Cycle. Each time through the cycle at OSNW3 this pattern has produced multiple days that were 10+ degrees above the Oshkosh average maximum temperature.

Nov 8-12 (+15°)
Dec 30-31, Jan 1 (+17°)
Feb 14-18 (+12°)

10+ degrees above average on any day between Apr 7-11 would put OSNW3 into the 60's. These types of temperatures will feel mighty nice after enduring the last gasp of winter the past two weeks. For an interactive look at this particular pattern I would suggest opening each of the 500mb maps, linked below, in their own browser tab. Then move the maps forward in time from each instance to the dates mentioned above paying particular attention to the movement of the atmosphere. It is evident a warm up was coming months ago due to the cycling pattern.

- Nov 5, 2010
- Dec 26, 2010
- Feb 14, 2011

One can do the same thing for the cold snap that followed the Great Lakes Cyclone, more popularly known as this years LRC 'signature' storm, by opening the links below and working through them as explained above. A persistent northwest flow set up ushering in cooler than average air.

- Oct 26, 2010
- Dec 11, 2010
- Feb 1, 2011
- Mar 23, 2011

(500mb Heights - 14 days centered on dates above)


More in depth information about these particular patterns within this years LRC can be found in the WeatherWatch12 and LRCweather blogs. Following these and other cycle analysis blogs acts as a catalyst for taking the bull by the horns. Recently I have been working with OSNW3 surface data attempting to forecast temperatures using the LRC. I came up with a very crude and simplistic formula that proved to have a 50% verification within a 10-15 degree range during the previous cycles 3 and 4. A good success rate for predicting temperatures a month or more in advance in my opinion. See graphs below for an analysis of previous cycles and a backyard temperature forecast through mid May using the formula. A larger view of each graph can be found by clicking on the image. The forecast graph for cycle 5 says it should certainly be near or above 60 here at OSNW3 this weekend!





The formula I created finds the mean deviation from the 30 year average for the particular day using the temp from that day, the day before and the day after within each cycle. The graph legend consists of the following acronyms. Cycle Max (CycMax), Cycle Min (CycMin), Forecast Max Temp (ForMaxT), Forecast Max Temp Range Hi (ForMaxTRH, Forecast Max Temp Range Lo (ForMaxTRL), Actual Max Temp at OSNW3 (ActualMaxT), and the Oshkosh Average Max Temp (OshAvgMaxT).

If there are any questions about my research or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks!