Actual surface data is obtained from the Southern Region Headquarters of the National Weather Service.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/product_sites.php?pil=CF6&max=61
A handful of stations do not provide complete data from the website above and I am forced to find it manually via other sources. These statons are listed below with their data source.
Oshkosh, WI; WI-WN-4 CoCoRaHS
Ann Arbor, MI; MI-WS-11 CoCoRaHS
Houghton, MI; MI-HG-1 CoCoRaHS
Escanaba, MI; NWS Station GLADSTONE NO 2
Traverse City, MI; NWS station TRAVERSE CITY MUNSON
Champaign, IL; IL-CP-47 CoCoRaHS
January Forecast "Snowfall" results
9 out of the 40 cities finished within +/- 30% of forecast total.
January Forecast "Days With Measurable Snowfall" results
28 out of the 40 cities finished within +/- 2 days of forecast total.
For more information visit the OSNW3|WxClimate Maps webpage.
If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the theory or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading!
Showing posts with label Winter Forecast Attempt. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Winter Forecast Attempt. Show all posts
Jan 2, 2013
December Snow Forecast Results & New Locations Added to the Trends
Recently I added three new locations to the Trend output. (thanks for the inquiries gentlemen, you know who you are)
Dayton, OH
Davenport, IA
Seattle, WA
These locations have now been added to the snow forecast outputs as well. Also, with the close of December I've put together the results of the December snow forecast. They can be accessed by clicking on the "Results" link next to the "December" map link on the bottom right side of the maps webpage linked below.
The result columns can be sorted by clicking on the table headers. The Error slider will list the stations based on the criteria selected.
For anyone who checks the results out, I would be very interested in your thoughts in regards to accuracy, presentation, etc. For example, is six inches too much of a difference between forecast and actual to give the forecast a passing grade? How many Days With Snow from actual would be considered a fail? Is there another category of analysis I should be presenting? This use of the theory is a bunch of crock and should be halted at once.
All feedback/ideas are welcome.
Something to note with precipitation forecasts for Jan and Feb. Something I call the 'cycle ratio' of the algorithm updates Jan-11. Consider it a new initialization of the modeled precip for future cycles. What this actually means is that the numbers that are forecast now will likely change on Jan-11. The next 'cycle ratio' update occurs Mar-6.
Dayton, OH
Davenport, IA
Seattle, WA
These locations have now been added to the snow forecast outputs as well. Also, with the close of December I've put together the results of the December snow forecast. They can be accessed by clicking on the "Results" link next to the "December" map link on the bottom right side of the maps webpage linked below.
The result columns can be sorted by clicking on the table headers. The Error slider will list the stations based on the criteria selected.
For anyone who checks the results out, I would be very interested in your thoughts in regards to accuracy, presentation, etc. For example, is six inches too much of a difference between forecast and actual to give the forecast a passing grade? How many Days With Snow from actual would be considered a fail? Is there another category of analysis I should be presenting? This use of the theory is a bunch of crock and should be halted at once.
All feedback/ideas are welcome.
Something to note with precipitation forecasts for Jan and Feb. Something I call the 'cycle ratio' of the algorithm updates Jan-11. Consider it a new initialization of the modeled precip for future cycles. What this actually means is that the numbers that are forecast now will likely change on Jan-11. The next 'cycle ratio' update occurs Mar-6.
Nov 16, 2012
Actively Seeking A Cycle Length
On Nov-4 I posted about a seasonal twist. The outcome of the so-called twist led me down a path of a new and extended cycle duration leaving an unanswered question as to why. I passed on the attempt to answer the question. Instead I followed this new cycle duration for another 10 ish days until the patterns yet again switched on me. Or did they? The cycle duration flux is documented in the comments of the linked entry above. To make a long story short, time has pushed forth and the map comparison below is where I am at in the cycle as of this posting. I will call it "55-ish" days.
(Sep-29)
(Nov-25 | 18Z GFS Nov-16)
----
For the past year I've been working on a way to utilize the knowledge of cycling weather patterns. While I know there will be better ways to present the massive amounts of data in future renditions, with potential future partners, I decided I needed to pull the trigger with what I had built to see how it would perform in a real time environment. The host website will likely always be "under construction" but under most circumstances will always be in production. I invite everyone reading to gander at what I think our cycling weather patterns have to offer for weather and climate forecasting.
Click on the screen shot to navigate to the trends. I welcome all feedback on the site, the data, the 'model' output... anything, as it will help me improve/disregard the product in the future.
If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading!
(Sep-29)
(Nov-25 | 18Z GFS Nov-16)
----
For the past year I've been working on a way to utilize the knowledge of cycling weather patterns. While I know there will be better ways to present the massive amounts of data in future renditions, with potential future partners, I decided I needed to pull the trigger with what I had built to see how it would perform in a real time environment. The host website will likely always be "under construction" but under most circumstances will always be in production. I invite everyone reading to gander at what I think our cycling weather patterns have to offer for weather and climate forecasting.
Click on the screen shot to navigate to the trends. I welcome all feedback on the site, the data, the 'model' output... anything, as it will help me improve/disregard the product in the future.
If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading!
Feb 23, 2012
Oshkosh Winter Prediction - Cycle 2 Performance Review
Back in late November when I pulled the first cycle data together to produce the Oshkosh Winter Forecast I banked on the cycle averaging 48 days per cycle. As we LRC followers know the cycle breathes and is never a static length. To this day the cycle in 2011-12 is averaging 46 ish days. This obviously means the dates and times of month I chose to pin point events is skewed slightly. With that said, the original forecast is still comprehendible with minimal self interpolation.
The original forecast called for the cycle 2 forecast period to fall between Jan-3 through Feb-19. In actuality it is Jan-2 through Feb-17. The OSNW3 LRC Calendar can shed more light on the cycle duration. Below I compare the OSNW3 surface observations between Jan-2 through Feb-17 against the LRC based forecast conditions for Jan-3 through Feb-19 made in late Nov and analyze how they have performed in forecast cycle 2.
Prediction
Days with Measurable Snow (0.1" or greater)
Forecast Cycle 2 = 12 days (Jan-3 thru Feb-19)
- Actual
Actual Cycle 2 (Jan-2 thru Feb-17)
- 13 days with 0.1" or greater snowfall.
- 92% accuracy
Prediction
Total Snow Accumulation
Forecast Cycle 2 = 17 inches of snow (Jan-3 thru Feb-19)
- Actual
Actual Cycle 2 (Jan-2 thru Feb-17)
- 11.7 inches of snow
- 1.41 inches of precipitation. A 10:1 snow to water ratio would have equaled 14.1 inches of snow had it all been snow.
- 68% accuracy
Prediction
Temperatures
The data trend leads me to believe that there will be enough warm spells to compensate for the majority of cold air events within each cycle leading to Above Average temperatures for the winter. The numbers tell me 1 to 3 degrees above average each cycle. Don't get me wrong, there will be some cold stretches this winter, there is no doubt about it, but with warm-ups scattered about may make the overall winter not seem so harsh temperature wise.
- Actual
- Daily Maximum temperatures were an astonishing 7 degrees above the (81-10) 30 year average for the actual cycle 2 period.
Note on temperatures... using the LRC I was convinced temps would be above average while others were calling for a cold winter. The calculated average temp from cycle 1 was 3+ degrees above average. I biased the prediction on the low side because the pros were calling for colder than average. I may have learned a lesson. The LRC data doesn't lie and it is a very powerful forecasting tool.
----
What should we expect in Cycle 3?
Sticking with the original forecast numbers made back in November for cycle 3, we should expect about 4 days with measurable snowfall accumulating around 9 inches. Temperatures should stay above average for the cycle once again. Spring should arrive mid March and rarely regress to a winter feel like most early spring events do. When using the LRC forecast trend below remember to give or take a day, or two!
(Temperature & Precipitation Chances Forecast Trend For Oshkosh)
If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading!
The original forecast called for the cycle 2 forecast period to fall between Jan-3 through Feb-19. In actuality it is Jan-2 through Feb-17. The OSNW3 LRC Calendar can shed more light on the cycle duration. Below I compare the OSNW3 surface observations between Jan-2 through Feb-17 against the LRC based forecast conditions for Jan-3 through Feb-19 made in late Nov and analyze how they have performed in forecast cycle 2.
Prediction
Days with Measurable Snow (0.1" or greater)
Forecast Cycle 2 = 12 days (Jan-3 thru Feb-19)
- Actual
Actual Cycle 2 (Jan-2 thru Feb-17)
- 13 days with 0.1" or greater snowfall.
- 92% accuracy
Prediction
Total Snow Accumulation
Forecast Cycle 2 = 17 inches of snow (Jan-3 thru Feb-19)
- Actual
Actual Cycle 2 (Jan-2 thru Feb-17)
- 11.7 inches of snow
- 1.41 inches of precipitation. A 10:1 snow to water ratio would have equaled 14.1 inches of snow had it all been snow.
- 68% accuracy
Prediction
Temperatures
The data trend leads me to believe that there will be enough warm spells to compensate for the majority of cold air events within each cycle leading to Above Average temperatures for the winter. The numbers tell me 1 to 3 degrees above average each cycle. Don't get me wrong, there will be some cold stretches this winter, there is no doubt about it, but with warm-ups scattered about may make the overall winter not seem so harsh temperature wise.
- Actual
- Daily Maximum temperatures were an astonishing 7 degrees above the (81-10) 30 year average for the actual cycle 2 period.
Note on temperatures... using the LRC I was convinced temps would be above average while others were calling for a cold winter. The calculated average temp from cycle 1 was 3+ degrees above average. I biased the prediction on the low side because the pros were calling for colder than average. I may have learned a lesson. The LRC data doesn't lie and it is a very powerful forecasting tool.
----
What should we expect in Cycle 3?
Sticking with the original forecast numbers made back in November for cycle 3, we should expect about 4 days with measurable snowfall accumulating around 9 inches. Temperatures should stay above average for the cycle once again. Spring should arrive mid March and rarely regress to a winter feel like most early spring events do. When using the LRC forecast trend below remember to give or take a day, or two!
(Temperature & Precipitation Chances Forecast Trend For Oshkosh)
If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading!
Jan 2, 2012
Oshkosh Winter Prediction - Cycle 1 Performance Review
How is the winter forecast based on the LRC performing as we begin a new cycle? I will admit my thinking in November was that long term climatology would prevail and not become the preventing factor in snow production as it has been thus far. The much advertised 'split flow jet' and 'bottled up AO' are the culprits in busting my snowy predictions this cycle. As for temperatures, however, the prediction of a warmer than average winter is steadfast. Overall the middle of the atmosphere keeps on the cycling and we can look forward to the 2011-12 LRC feature patterns again and again. Below are some numbers to quantify the first cycle forecast performance.
Prediction
Days with Measurable Snow (0.1" or greater)
Cycle 1 = 13 days (Nov-16 thru Jan-2)
- Actual
- 5 days with 0.1" or greater snowfall.
- 14 days with Trace or greater snowfall.
- 38% accuracy
Prediction
Total Snow Accumulation
Cycle 1 = 16 inches of snow (Nov-16 thru Jan-2)
- Actual
- 2.4 inches of snow
- 2.18 inches of precipitation. A 10:1 snow to water ratio would have equaled 21 inches of snow had it all been snow.
- 15% accuracy
Prediction
Temperatures
The data trend leads me to believe that there will be enough warm spells to compensate for the majority of cold air events within each cycle leading to Above Average temperatures for the winter. The numbers tell me 1 to 3 degrees above average each cycle. Don't get me wrong, there will be some cold stretches this winter, there is no doubt about it, but with warm-ups scattered about may make the overall winter not seem so harsh temperature wise.
- Actual
- Daily Maximum temperatures are currently 4.5 degrees above the (81-10) 30 year average.
What should we expect in Cycle 2? The trends show a mild start to January with a cool down by the end of the month. February should continue with what we saw in much of December but hopefully this time around most of the precipitation will fall as snow. The most recent snowfall and wind event (Jan 1-2) should recur sometime around Feb-17. Sticking with the original forecast made back in November for this cycle, we should expect about 12 days with measurable snowfall accumulating around 17 inches. Temperatures should stay above average for the cycle once again. For an idea of when the precipitation may occur see the OSNW3 LRC Calendar 2011-12 and follow the blue highlighted dates. Remember to give or take a day, or two!
(500mb Forecast Trend For Green Bay)
(Temperature Forecast Trend For Oshkosh)
If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading!
Prediction
Days with Measurable Snow (0.1" or greater)
Cycle 1 = 13 days (Nov-16 thru Jan-2)
- Actual
- 5 days with 0.1" or greater snowfall.
- 14 days with Trace or greater snowfall.
- 38% accuracy
Prediction
Total Snow Accumulation
Cycle 1 = 16 inches of snow (Nov-16 thru Jan-2)
- Actual
- 2.4 inches of snow
- 2.18 inches of precipitation. A 10:1 snow to water ratio would have equaled 21 inches of snow had it all been snow.
- 15% accuracy
Prediction
Temperatures
The data trend leads me to believe that there will be enough warm spells to compensate for the majority of cold air events within each cycle leading to Above Average temperatures for the winter. The numbers tell me 1 to 3 degrees above average each cycle. Don't get me wrong, there will be some cold stretches this winter, there is no doubt about it, but with warm-ups scattered about may make the overall winter not seem so harsh temperature wise.
- Actual
- Daily Maximum temperatures are currently 4.5 degrees above the (81-10) 30 year average.
What should we expect in Cycle 2? The trends show a mild start to January with a cool down by the end of the month. February should continue with what we saw in much of December but hopefully this time around most of the precipitation will fall as snow. The most recent snowfall and wind event (Jan 1-2) should recur sometime around Feb-17. Sticking with the original forecast made back in November for this cycle, we should expect about 12 days with measurable snowfall accumulating around 17 inches. Temperatures should stay above average for the cycle once again. For an idea of when the precipitation may occur see the OSNW3 LRC Calendar 2011-12 and follow the blue highlighted dates. Remember to give or take a day, or two!
(500mb Forecast Trend For Green Bay)
(Temperature Forecast Trend For Oshkosh)
If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading!
Nov 25, 2011
2011-12 Oshkosh Winter Forecast Based On The LRC
I first heard about Lezak's Recurring Cycle theory in early October of 2010 from WISN12's Jeremy Nelson. My initial thoughts were that it was too good to be true. Then it happened, I was convinced after one in-depth analysis that it indeed existed. I will admit it didn't take long for me to buy in and afterwards I wondered why I hadn't heard about it before. A little over a year later and an extreme amount of hours dedicated to research and analysis, following the theory has grown into a passion. To this day I endorse the theory to my fullest capacity.
Caught up in all the hype and excitement of learning more about the LRC last winter I attempted a backyard snowfall forecast. Little did I realize that this endeavor would be the proverbial tip of the iceberg. Following the LRC for the past year has led me down a path of constant learning about the upper atmosphere and how it affects the weather on the surface. The benefits of following the theory and thus knowing the likely weather and climate scenarios weeks and months ahead of time are boundless.
In 2011 the OSNW3 backyard snowfall forecast has evolved into a Oshkosh Winter Forecast pin pointing specific weather events and surface weather trends for the area. An exciting project only truly conceivable because of the LRC.
----
Again, What Is The LRC?
The ’LRC’ which stands for Lezak’s Recurring Cycle is a weather pattern theory based on the following:
* A unique weather pattern sets up every year between October and November
* The weather pattern cycles, repeats, and continues through winter, spring and into summer.
* Long term long-wave troughs and ridges become established and also repeat at regular times within the cycle. These dominant repeating features are a clue to where storm systems will reach peak strength, and where they will be their weakest.
* The LRC isn’t just one long-wave trough, storm system, or ridge. It is a sequence of troughs and ridges that are cycling across the Northern Hemisphere.
To put this in very simple terms, the weather pattern that occurs in October and November repeats thru the winter, spring, and into summer. The cycle length will vary each year.
----
The Forecast
No reason to reiterate any more words of Jeremy Nelson of WISN12 or Gary Lezak of LRC Weather. With the cycle duration in clear sites, the cycling weather patterns will now do what they do. Please visit Jeremy's and Gary's winter forecast, linked below, as they dissect the long term long wave troughs and ridges that will be our weather until summer!
Weather Watch 12
LRC Weather
To create the 2011-12 Oshkosh winter forecast I am leaning on all of my rookie year experiences following the LRC. The main focus being the affect the atmospheric flow 18,000 feet above the earth has on the OSNW3 recorded surface data throughout the seasons and each cycle of the LRC. The predictions below are based on a 46-48 day cycle duration. Shrinking and expanding of the duration will take place as the seasons move along.
Disclaimer: It is understood that the weather can change instantly and despite my best attempts to understand the weather patterns my weather predictions might be incorrect.
Notable Weather Events
Cycle 1 (Nov-25 thru Jan-2)
-Early Dec Cold
-Late Dec Snowstorm/Cold
-New Year Warm-up
Cycle 2 (Jan-3 thru Feb-19)
-Mid Jan Warm-up
-Late Jan/Early Feb Cold
-Mid Feb Snowstorm/Cold
-Mid Feb Warm-up
Cycle 3 (Feb-20 thru Apr-7)
-Early Mar Warm-up
-Late Mar/Early Apr Snowstorm/Cold
-Early Apr Warm-up (spring clean-up)
Cycle 4 (Apr-8 thru May-25)
-Early May Flakes (chilly start to golf leagues)
Events are open to deeper daily analysis queries if desired. This leads into the main focus of any winter forecast. Snowfall!
Days with Measurable Snow
C1 = 13 (Nov-25 thru Jan-2)
C2 = 12 (Jan-3 thru Feb-19)
C3 = 4 (Feb-20 thru Apr-7)
C4 = 2 (Apr-8 thru May-25)
Season = 31 (including the Nov-9 snowfall)
*9 days above average (1981-2010)
Total Snow Accumulation
C1 = 16" (Nov-25 thru Jan-2)
C2 = 17" (Jan-3 thru Feb-19)
C3 = 9" (Feb-20 thru Apr-7)
C4 = 1" (Apr-8 thru May-25)
Season = 45" (includes 2.1 from early Nov-9)
*11 inches above average (1981-2010)
Temperatures
The data trend leads me to believe that there will be enough warm spells to compensate for the majority of cold air events within each cycle leading to Above Average temperatures for the winter. The numbers tell me 1 to 3 degrees above average each cycle. Don't get me wrong, there will be some cold stretches this winter, there is no doubt about it, but with warm-ups scattered about may make the overall winter not seem so harsh temperature wise.
----
On Going Analysis and LRC Based Products
I am determined and focused on providing a different way of seeing the cycle. I have plans that include time-lapse and graphical grids. Besides that, I will keep up to date the forecast trends, calendar, and activity in the AccuWeather LRC Forum. The AccuWeather LRC Forum is a great place to exchange ideas and to continue learning the theory. I recommend it. The 2011-12 Forecast Trends are located below and are permanently located on the lower right hand side of the blog. The 2011-12 LRC Calendar can be found here and in the LRC Analysis Tools section on the upper right hand side of the blog. The trends are based on a 48 day cycle duration. The duration may be retracted or extended later on in the year as the cycle breathes if required to keep continuity.
(500mb Forecast Trend For Green Bay)
(Maximum Temperature Forecast Trend For Oshkosh)
If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading!
Caught up in all the hype and excitement of learning more about the LRC last winter I attempted a backyard snowfall forecast. Little did I realize that this endeavor would be the proverbial tip of the iceberg. Following the LRC for the past year has led me down a path of constant learning about the upper atmosphere and how it affects the weather on the surface. The benefits of following the theory and thus knowing the likely weather and climate scenarios weeks and months ahead of time are boundless.
In 2011 the OSNW3 backyard snowfall forecast has evolved into a Oshkosh Winter Forecast pin pointing specific weather events and surface weather trends for the area. An exciting project only truly conceivable because of the LRC.
----
Again, What Is The LRC?
The ’LRC’ which stands for Lezak’s Recurring Cycle is a weather pattern theory based on the following:
* A unique weather pattern sets up every year between October and November
* The weather pattern cycles, repeats, and continues through winter, spring and into summer.
* Long term long-wave troughs and ridges become established and also repeat at regular times within the cycle. These dominant repeating features are a clue to where storm systems will reach peak strength, and where they will be their weakest.
* The LRC isn’t just one long-wave trough, storm system, or ridge. It is a sequence of troughs and ridges that are cycling across the Northern Hemisphere.
To put this in very simple terms, the weather pattern that occurs in October and November repeats thru the winter, spring, and into summer. The cycle length will vary each year.
----
The Forecast
No reason to reiterate any more words of Jeremy Nelson of WISN12 or Gary Lezak of LRC Weather. With the cycle duration in clear sites, the cycling weather patterns will now do what they do. Please visit Jeremy's and Gary's winter forecast, linked below, as they dissect the long term long wave troughs and ridges that will be our weather until summer!
Weather Watch 12
LRC Weather
To create the 2011-12 Oshkosh winter forecast I am leaning on all of my rookie year experiences following the LRC. The main focus being the affect the atmospheric flow 18,000 feet above the earth has on the OSNW3 recorded surface data throughout the seasons and each cycle of the LRC. The predictions below are based on a 46-48 day cycle duration. Shrinking and expanding of the duration will take place as the seasons move along.
Disclaimer: It is understood that the weather can change instantly and despite my best attempts to understand the weather patterns my weather predictions might be incorrect.
Notable Weather Events
Cycle 1 (Nov-25 thru Jan-2)
-Early Dec Cold
-Late Dec Snowstorm/Cold
-New Year Warm-up
Cycle 2 (Jan-3 thru Feb-19)
-Mid Jan Warm-up
-Late Jan/Early Feb Cold
-Mid Feb Snowstorm/Cold
-Mid Feb Warm-up
Cycle 3 (Feb-20 thru Apr-7)
-Early Mar Warm-up
-Late Mar/Early Apr Snowstorm/Cold
-Early Apr Warm-up (spring clean-up)
Cycle 4 (Apr-8 thru May-25)
-Early May Flakes (chilly start to golf leagues)
Events are open to deeper daily analysis queries if desired. This leads into the main focus of any winter forecast. Snowfall!
Days with Measurable Snow
C1 = 13 (Nov-25 thru Jan-2)
C2 = 12 (Jan-3 thru Feb-19)
C3 = 4 (Feb-20 thru Apr-7)
C4 = 2 (Apr-8 thru May-25)
Season = 31 (including the Nov-9 snowfall)
*9 days above average (1981-2010)
Total Snow Accumulation
C1 = 16" (Nov-25 thru Jan-2)
C2 = 17" (Jan-3 thru Feb-19)
C3 = 9" (Feb-20 thru Apr-7)
C4 = 1" (Apr-8 thru May-25)
Season = 45" (includes 2.1 from early Nov-9)
*11 inches above average (1981-2010)
Temperatures
The data trend leads me to believe that there will be enough warm spells to compensate for the majority of cold air events within each cycle leading to Above Average temperatures for the winter. The numbers tell me 1 to 3 degrees above average each cycle. Don't get me wrong, there will be some cold stretches this winter, there is no doubt about it, but with warm-ups scattered about may make the overall winter not seem so harsh temperature wise.
----
On Going Analysis and LRC Based Products
I am determined and focused on providing a different way of seeing the cycle. I have plans that include time-lapse and graphical grids. Besides that, I will keep up to date the forecast trends, calendar, and activity in the AccuWeather LRC Forum. The AccuWeather LRC Forum is a great place to exchange ideas and to continue learning the theory. I recommend it. The 2011-12 Forecast Trends are located below and are permanently located on the lower right hand side of the blog. The 2011-12 LRC Calendar can be found here and in the LRC Analysis Tools section on the upper right hand side of the blog. The trends are based on a 48 day cycle duration. The duration may be retracted or extended later on in the year as the cycle breathes if required to keep continuity.
(500mb Forecast Trend For Green Bay)
(Maximum Temperature Forecast Trend For Oshkosh)
If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading!
Nov 11, 2011
Some Thoughts On The New, Still Evolving, 2011-12 LRC
*Update Nov-11, 2011
It's getting down to crunch time! The professionals that base their winter forecasts on the LRC are building the hype for their respective release within the next week! Exciting times. As for what I am seeing, well, it is a 45 ish cycle duration currently. The other morning I found a comparison that was 46. I am leaning toward a mid to high forty right now rather than a 50+ I saw a week ago. This really is a fun part of the LRC, I will admit. Similar to a treasure hunt!
(Oct-8, 2011)
(Nov-22, 2011 Forecast)
---- Original Post Nov-7, 2011
And it keeps evolving. Today I like Sep-30 and Nov-20. 52 days. Notice the GFS Nov-20 forecast map is different from yesterday? I know Tim enjoys this fantasy land stuff! ;)
(Sep-30, 2011)
(Nov-20, 2011 Forecast)
---- Original Post Nov-6, 2011
Hints of the cycle length are coming in. The 500mb map comparison below is evidence. Potentially 48-ish days. Admittedly this comparison puts a lot faith into the GFS long range. Clicking on the maps will bring you to their respective websites.
(Oct-4, 2011)
(Nov-20, 2011 Forecast)
---- Original Post Oct-30, 2011
I am getting excited, like a kid in a candy store, about the first few weeks of November as they will complete our analysis for the first cycle of the 2011-12 LRC.
As far as Oshkosh is concerned, today's (Oct-30) precipitation could certainly be a nice snowfall in December. However, up until now we haven't had any 'storms' to reference that would provide anything over 4 inches of snowfall in a 24 hour period. The way I see it breaking down for Oshkosh thus far in the cycle is, the second half of the first half of the cycle could be riddled with clippers which will hopefully keep the relatively warm "snow melting air" out of the area. If we get clipper after clipper it could carve out a great time period of LES in the Lake Superior snow belts. Also, there were two potent systems that traveled to our north in late September and middle October, perhaps they could be snow makers as the jet dips south come late November through January as well. Unfortunately the ridge that built up during the time between the two storms could bring some warm air rushing into the area which could spell doom for snow lovers... we'll see! These are my preliminary thoughts on the currently evolving 2011-12 LRC. I plan to attempt a winter forecast for Oshkosh during the Thanksgiving time frame.
The recent snow out East was certainly epic and I have confidence that it will recur multiple times until next summer. Signs point to an extremely active year in the NE. I would expect this storm to move slightly south and east each time it recurs. We'll see. To view a US radar loop of the recent Nor'Easter click the link below.
http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/z20111030.html
If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. The 2011-12 LRC calendar can be found here and is also accessible from the LRC Analysis Tools section in the upper right portion of the blog. Thanks for reading!
It's getting down to crunch time! The professionals that base their winter forecasts on the LRC are building the hype for their respective release within the next week! Exciting times. As for what I am seeing, well, it is a 45 ish cycle duration currently. The other morning I found a comparison that was 46. I am leaning toward a mid to high forty right now rather than a 50+ I saw a week ago. This really is a fun part of the LRC, I will admit. Similar to a treasure hunt!
(Oct-8, 2011)
(Nov-22, 2011 Forecast)
---- Original Post Nov-7, 2011
And it keeps evolving. Today I like Sep-30 and Nov-20. 52 days. Notice the GFS Nov-20 forecast map is different from yesterday? I know Tim enjoys this fantasy land stuff! ;)
(Sep-30, 2011)
(Nov-20, 2011 Forecast)
---- Original Post Nov-6, 2011
Hints of the cycle length are coming in. The 500mb map comparison below is evidence. Potentially 48-ish days. Admittedly this comparison puts a lot faith into the GFS long range. Clicking on the maps will bring you to their respective websites.
(Oct-4, 2011)
(Nov-20, 2011 Forecast)
---- Original Post Oct-30, 2011
I am getting excited, like a kid in a candy store, about the first few weeks of November as they will complete our analysis for the first cycle of the 2011-12 LRC.
As far as Oshkosh is concerned, today's (Oct-30) precipitation could certainly be a nice snowfall in December. However, up until now we haven't had any 'storms' to reference that would provide anything over 4 inches of snowfall in a 24 hour period. The way I see it breaking down for Oshkosh thus far in the cycle is, the second half of the first half of the cycle could be riddled with clippers which will hopefully keep the relatively warm "snow melting air" out of the area. If we get clipper after clipper it could carve out a great time period of LES in the Lake Superior snow belts. Also, there were two potent systems that traveled to our north in late September and middle October, perhaps they could be snow makers as the jet dips south come late November through January as well. Unfortunately the ridge that built up during the time between the two storms could bring some warm air rushing into the area which could spell doom for snow lovers... we'll see! These are my preliminary thoughts on the currently evolving 2011-12 LRC. I plan to attempt a winter forecast for Oshkosh during the Thanksgiving time frame.
The recent snow out East was certainly epic and I have confidence that it will recur multiple times until next summer. Signs point to an extremely active year in the NE. I would expect this storm to move slightly south and east each time it recurs. We'll see. To view a US radar loop of the recent Nor'Easter click the link below.
http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/z20111030.html
If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. The 2011-12 LRC calendar can be found here and is also accessible from the LRC Analysis Tools section in the upper right portion of the blog. Thanks for reading!
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