Nov 25, 2011

2011-12 Oshkosh Winter Forecast Based On The LRC

I first heard about Lezak's Recurring Cycle theory in early October of 2010 from WISN12's Jeremy Nelson. My initial thoughts were that it was too good to be true. Then it happened, I was convinced after one in-depth analysis that it indeed existed. I will admit it didn't take long for me to buy in and afterwards I wondered why I hadn't heard about it before. A little over a year later and an extreme amount of hours dedicated to research and analysis, following the theory has grown into a passion. To this day I endorse the theory to my fullest capacity.

Caught up in all the hype and excitement of learning more about the LRC last winter I attempted a backyard snowfall forecast. Little did I realize that this endeavor would be the proverbial tip of the iceberg. Following the LRC for the past year has led me down a path of constant learning about the upper atmosphere and how it affects the weather on the surface. The benefits of following the theory and thus knowing the likely weather and climate scenarios weeks and months ahead of time are boundless.

In 2011 the OSNW3 backyard snowfall forecast has evolved into a Oshkosh Winter Forecast pin pointing specific weather events and surface weather trends for the area. An exciting project only truly conceivable because of the LRC.


Again, What Is The LRC?
The ’LRC’ which stands for Lezak’s Recurring Cycle is a weather pattern theory based on the following:

* A unique weather pattern sets up every year between October and November
* The weather pattern cycles, repeats, and continues through winter, spring and into summer.
* Long term long-wave troughs and ridges become established and also repeat at regular times within the cycle. These dominant repeating features are a clue to where storm systems will reach peak strength, and where they will be their weakest.
* The LRC isn’t just one long-wave trough, storm system, or ridge. It is a sequence of troughs and ridges that are cycling across the Northern Hemisphere.

To put this in very simple terms, the weather pattern that occurs in October and November repeats thru the winter, spring, and into summer. The cycle length will vary each year.


The Forecast
No reason to reiterate any more words of Jeremy Nelson of WISN12 or Gary Lezak of LRC Weather. With the cycle duration in clear sites, the cycling weather patterns will now do what they do. Please visit Jeremy's and Gary's winter forecast, linked below, as they dissect the long term long wave troughs and ridges that will be our weather until summer!

Weather Watch 12
LRC Weather

To create the 2011-12 Oshkosh winter forecast I am leaning on all of my rookie year experiences following the LRC. The main focus being the affect the atmospheric flow 18,000 feet above the earth has on the OSNW3 recorded surface data throughout the seasons and each cycle of the LRC. The predictions below are based on a 46-48 day cycle duration. Shrinking and expanding of the duration will take place as the seasons move along.

Disclaimer: It is understood that the weather can change instantly and despite my best attempts to understand the weather patterns my weather predictions might be incorrect.

Notable Weather Events
Cycle 1 (Nov-25 thru Jan-2)
-Early Dec Cold
-Late Dec Snowstorm/Cold
-New Year Warm-up
Cycle 2 (Jan-3 thru Feb-19)
-Mid Jan Warm-up
-Late Jan/Early Feb Cold
-Mid Feb Snowstorm/Cold
-Mid Feb Warm-up
Cycle 3 (Feb-20 thru Apr-7)
-Early Mar Warm-up
-Late Mar/Early Apr Snowstorm/Cold
-Early Apr Warm-up (spring clean-up)
Cycle 4 (Apr-8 thru May-25)
-Early May Flakes (chilly start to golf leagues)

Events are open to deeper daily analysis queries if desired. This leads into the main focus of any winter forecast. Snowfall!

Days with Measurable Snow
C1 = 13 (Nov-25 thru Jan-2)
C2 = 12 (Jan-3 thru Feb-19)
C3 = 4 (Feb-20 thru Apr-7)
C4 = 2 (Apr-8 thru May-25)
Season = 31 (including the Nov-9 snowfall)
*9 days above average (1981-2010)

Total Snow Accumulation
C1 = 16" (Nov-25 thru Jan-2)
C2 = 17" (Jan-3 thru Feb-19)
C3 = 9" (Feb-20 thru Apr-7)
C4 = 1" (Apr-8 thru May-25)
Season = 45" (includes 2.1 from early Nov-9)
*11 inches above average (1981-2010)

The data trend leads me to believe that there will be enough warm spells to compensate for the majority of cold air events within each cycle leading to Above Average temperatures for the winter. The numbers tell me 1 to 3 degrees above average each cycle. Don't get me wrong, there will be some cold stretches this winter, there is no doubt about it, but with warm-ups scattered about may make the overall winter not seem so harsh temperature wise.


On Going Analysis and LRC Based Products
I am determined and focused on providing a different way of seeing the cycle. I have plans that include time-lapse and graphical grids. Besides that, I will keep up to date the forecast trends, calendar, and activity in the AccuWeather LRC Forum. The AccuWeather LRC Forum is a great place to exchange ideas and to continue learning the theory. I recommend it. The 2011-12 Forecast Trends are located below and are permanently located on the lower right hand side of the blog. The 2011-12 LRC Calendar can be found here and in the LRC Analysis Tools section on the upper right hand side of the blog. The trends are based on a 48 day cycle duration. The duration may be retracted or extended later on in the year as the cycle breathes if required to keep continuity.

(500mb Forecast Trend For Green Bay)

(Maximum Temperature Forecast Trend For Oshkosh)

If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading!


  1. Hi Josh,

    Sorry I haven’t kept in closer touch. Was a rather busy summer for me and the amount of hot & humid weather didn’t help either! All’s well enough down here in the ‘prairie’; hope it’s the same or better up your way.
    I just took a look through your forecast writeup. Nice presentation and I’ll be looking forward to following along to see what (if any) variations occur as well as seeing what ‘adjustments’ might have to be made from one cycle to the next.
    From what your research has provided so far, do you have any ‘feel’ as to the direction storms might ‘miss’ the presently predicted locations and thus result in ‘more snow, less cold’ or ‘more cold, less snow’? I guess what I’m asking is do you have a ‘second, but less likely’ forecast, and if so, how much does it vary from the one you’ve presented? As long as I’m in question asking mode; anything you’ve seen so far indicate potential ‘blizzard events’?

    Tony (Pl. Prairie)

  2. Tony! Great to read from you again. Thanks for stopping by. I am glad you took the time to read through it. There will be variations, that is inevitable as we move through the seasons. I don't see many adjustments to the predictions, just analysis on why something went this way or went that way.

    From what I've experienced storms will recur more south and east from previous cycles throughout the winter. I would expect a clipper or two to work their way in 'unnoticed' so to speak. And, obviously, depending on snow cover the warm-ups may not be as warm which could stress the temperature prediction.

    Blizzards. It's a tough call, but I am going to say no. I do see a winter storm warning or two for my area. Perhaps down by you there could be potential blizzard conditions with high winds and lake enhancement snows???

    Again, thanks for stopping by and I hope to communicate more often this winter. Too bad the Weather Watch 12 blog went all facebook on us. Last years comment section discussions were great!

  3. Josh,

    Good to be in contact with you again too. I’m looking forward to more of the same over the course of the winter. I share your ‘regret’ over the changes to the WW12 blog. Thanks for the reply to my questions. I don’t want this to sound too much like ‘fan mail’, but I do have a very healthy respect for your LRC and weather forecast in general endeavors. As a bit of clarification to my previous comment, the variations that I was referring to was with regards to the track of the predicted storms. Likewise, the ‘adjustments’ was primarily referring to the ‘breathing’ (time wise) of the individual iterations of the overall cycle.
    Like the vast majority of people, the weather that matters the most is that which will impact my nearby local. From my look through of Jeremy’s LRC forecast, that ‘feature #2' map didn’t exactly send tingles of excitement through me! Really hope I’m wrong, but to me, that map suggests a distinct possibility of perhaps frequent, rather intense ‘pan-handle hook’ storms followed by some pretty darn cold spells for my location. Not sure how such storms play out in the Oshkosh area, but around here; not very ‘pretty’!! For my winter weather preferences, pretty much a ‘worst case’ type of scenario. Was kind of hoping you were of the opinion that there was an outside chance of things moving more northwest from what is presently forecast. No need for an ‘apology’ that you didn’t have anything more comforting to offer me. I fully understand you have to ‘call them as you see them’.

    Tony (Pl. Prairie)

  4. Tony, I believe the cut-off lows that have been showing up may mean some 'deeper' breaths so to speak which may put the accuracy of the dates into question as the season moves forward. The flow will do what it will do. I agree with your thoughts on Jeremy's #2 feature.  The back and forth rain/snow line discussions will be heating up soon!  And, I do call them as I see them, well more of how my recorded observations see them and then using my interpretation of the cycle. I am still very green when it comes to predicting weather.  Without the LRC I wouldn't even attempt it. :)