Predicting Future Weather Using Unproven Ideas and Other Voodoo

After further analysis I may have had a miscue in my day counting back in May. Never the less. It is summer in the CONUS. The jet is moving pole ward. Looks like there may be an event this time around, but as pointed out way back in January, it's a wimpy Low.

I will likely be posting the 7/7 map, along with storm reports from the forecast below.



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originally posted May 18, 2013

BUST - I think that H in the four corners held the system from dropping down. A result of the jet stream shifting north? Slowly but surely. No matter, I'm confident that the pattern we are moving into spun several @weatherchannel named storms this winter (grey shade). Will watch this particular pattern (yellow shade) through it's entirety - in early July (5-6) when WI will surely be in the path. LOL.

"Cycle 5" May 13-14, 2013




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originally posted Apr 28, 2013
Again the time is nearing. How is this pattern going to act this time around? The bet has evolved into an accompanied count of reports from just a warned area. This idea is absurd. Right? I assume I will be laughing at myself in two plus weeks. (For some reason I banked on the cycle coming in at 51 this time around. Seems it may be 52 or 53. My dates need to be extended by a day or two)

A projection - May 13-14, 2013


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originally posted Mar 25, 2013

The time has passed, I lost the bet. Now we wait until May 13-14 for the next recurrence. How will it act?

"Cycle 4" March 23-24, 2013




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originally posted Mar 12, 2013

Update: Archived radar loops of this storm from past cycles.

20121016-20 "Cycle 1"
20121208-12 "Cycle 2"
20130129-31 "Cycle 3"

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originally posted Jan 28, 2013

We may have been a bit cryptic on the AccuWx Forum LRC Thread, so I will attempt to toss all the images into a quick blog entry. Click on each of the images for more information.

"Cycle 1" October 17-18, 2012




"Cycle 2" December 8-9, 2012




"Cycle 3" January 29-30, 2013




This is the pattern I have chosen to wager a "weather future" on. While the future may not be my retirement fund, it very well could be some of the best BBQ I have ever tasted. I am not a severe weather guy, nor have I ever chased, but if I were to pick dates on when I would, it would be March 25-26, 2013 ish. Using a 53 day cycle length I may be a day or two long on my dates. We'll see how it turns out. I've already read some trash talk of my choice; "you will need it to wrap up more next time. Wimpy surface low" - LOL. Be that as it may, I am wishcasting a winner! We will have a very good idea of what it looks like in the Pacific 2.5 - 3 weeks prior to the CONUS version. Stay tuned to the AccuWx Forum LRC Thread.

If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the theory or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading!

My Interpretation of the Recent Patterns - What is Your Take?

Oct 25, 2012

Feb 10, 2013 - 108 ish days from above date (54 average)

The map below, of the specific pattern in the cycle between the cycles mentioned above, may be the odd ball out. Perhaps an interference behavior of a wave? Some science.

Dec 17, 2012 - 53 ish days from Oct 25, 55 ish days from Feb 10.

Below is a graph of the 500mb numbers for a five day stretch encompassing this comparison of each cycle. The blue and green match up pretty well while the red is slightly different.

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A step further, another map to map. The "cancer", as it has been mentioned, to following the cycle. Was this feature introduced back in the December cycle? No real glimpse of it back in October. Node or antinode?

Dec 19, 2012 - See Calendar

Feb 12, 2013 - 55 ish days from Dec 19.

If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the cycle or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading!

Quick Cycle Duration Check

Could we be seeing a cycle 'extension' like Gilbertfly mentioned in the AccuWx Forum LRC Thread early on due to a late winter southern reach of snow pack? See Calendar as I have it 'marked'. What do you all think? Off my rocker? This is the time frame where 53 days was consistent last cycle. We shall see!

Oct 23, 2012


Dec 15, 2012 - 53 ish days from above date


Feb 7, 2013 - 54 ish days from above date


If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the theory or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading!

Midwest Snowfall - January Forecast Results Are In

Actual surface data is obtained from the Southern Region Headquarters of the National Weather Service.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/product_sites.php?pil=CF6&max=61

A handful of stations do not provide complete data from the website above and I am forced to find it manually via other sources. These statons are listed below with their data source.

Oshkosh, WI; WI-WN-4 CoCoRaHS
Ann Arbor, MI; MI-WS-11 CoCoRaHS
Houghton, MI; MI-HG-1 CoCoRaHS
Escanaba, MI; NWS Station GLADSTONE NO 2
Traverse City, MI; NWS station TRAVERSE CITY MUNSON
Champaign, IL; IL-CP-47 CoCoRaHS

January Forecast "Snowfall" results
9 out of the 40 cities finished within +/- 30% of forecast total.

January Forecast "Days With Measurable Snowfall" results
28 out of the 40 cities finished within +/- 2 days of forecast total.

For more information visit the OSNW3|WxClimate Maps webpage.

If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the theory or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading!

Too Early To Make Predictions For Spring Storm Outbreaks?

The other day on the AccuWx Forums LRC Thread, Apo Agathos, questioned if it was too early to make predictions for spring storm outbreaks? It has become painfully obvious that many weather enthusiasts are once again very close to giving up on winter and setting their sites towards chasing thunderstorms.

Recently I completed the work to get the daily maximum temperatures stuffed into Google Motion Charts. This output allowed me to analyze daily Midwest temperature changes as an entity. With the 'spring storm' question on my mind I was on the lookout for a drastic change from warm to cool which can potentially heighten the possibility.

The first notable frontal passage is visible in early March.



The second comes during the same pattern the next cycle in late April.



Click on the images to navigate to the Motion Chart. Choose the correct month from the menu on the right. Click the play button and watch the pretty colors of the temperature flux in the Midwest. The chart is fully controllable allowing the user to change the chart type, select locations, scroll through time, etc. The forecast numbers are updated daily and are grouped by month.

When using the theory to project weather conditions months in advance it is necessary to give or take a day for the given time frame. Currently the forecast data is derived using a 52 day cycle length. The 500mb plots for this pattern in previous cycles are below. A link to the surface plot can be obtained by clicking on the 500mb plot image.

Nov 18, 2012


Jan 10, 2013


If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the theory or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading!

A Quick Rant - When Use Of The Theory Fails

Majority of people who watch the cycling weather patterns do not often exploit them when the use of them fails. I am in a position of experimentation and examination. Personally I want to see it both succeed and fail. The theory is not linear and that simple fact is blatantly obvious beginning day two of the quest to keep up.

When using the theory to project surface observations a scenario for a consistent fail is in the current pattern. Within the visually chaotic mess that this pattern holds, the previous cycle threw the 'trending' aspect for a 180° flip-flop loop. A few factors that give claim to "it all being part of the cycle" can be used for this one; seasonal twist, every other cycle, etc.

(Oct 2-7; Nov 24-29; Jan 16-21)

(click on the image for a much larger view)

Fantastic. Yes, I can see the pattern. Yes, I know surface variables are difficult to trend due to friction this close to the earth. But, like the many in the Pacific Northwest, even in the Midwest the middle of the atmosphere is blowing it for any form of "sensible" weather recognition with this pattern.



But wait! If one has been following the cycles for a few years it is likely they have grasped the many concepts of the patterns and how they might act from season to season, or cycle to cycle. Am I safe to conclude that next cycle, in Oshkosh, the below average trend will not come to fruition and it is highly likely we will experience what we did to begin December? Temperatures much above average because of the potential "every other cycle" rule?! We will see. :)



If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the theory or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading!

December Snow Forecast Results & New Locations Added to the Trends

Recently I added three new locations to the Trend output. (thanks for the inquiries gentlemen, you know who you are)

Dayton, OH
Davenport, IA
Seattle, WA

These locations have now been added to the snow forecast outputs as well. Also, with the close of December I've put together the results of the December snow forecast. They can be accessed by clicking on the "Results" link next to the "December" map link on the bottom right side of the maps webpage linked below.



The result columns can be sorted by clicking on the table headers. The Error slider will list the stations based on the criteria selected.

For anyone who checks the results out, I would be very interested in your thoughts in regards to accuracy, presentation, etc. For example, is six inches too much of a difference between forecast and actual to give the forecast a passing grade? How many Days With Snow from actual would be considered a fail? Is there another category of analysis I should be presenting? This use of the theory is a bunch of crock and should be halted at once.

All feedback/ideas are welcome.

Something to note with precipitation forecasts for Jan and Feb. Something I call the 'cycle ratio' of the algorithm updates Jan-11. Consider it a new initialization of the modeled precip for future cycles. What this actually means is that the numbers that are forecast now will likely change on Jan-11. The next 'cycle ratio' update occurs Mar-6.

2012-13 Cycle: 500mb Map Loops

The Northern Hemisphere 500mb map compare for the 2012-13 cycle has begun at the OSNW3|WxClimate website. Click on the image, then use the drop down selection and select "2012-13 Loops" to check them out.



"The loops are a tool to capture and correlate the flow of the entire Northern Hemisphere from cycle to cycle. Each individual cycle is dated and determined by the average cycle length. Each loop is manually animated in either direction by clicking on the arrow buttons. Each day in a cycle is numbered. Use the calendar to easily find and compare specific dates."
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But What Is It Good For?

"I confess that in 1901, I said to my brother Orville that man would not fly for fifty years... Ever since, I have distrusted myself and avoided all predictions." -- Wilbur Wright, 1908

After a few muses from @kcwxguy I found myself knee deep fiddling with Google Visualization. It soon became a fresh way to visualize my forecast model data based on LRC theory. The winter of 2012-13 begins my third year following the cycling weather patterns of the northern hemisphere. An eagerness to learn has grown into a passion. From a once inconceivable backyard snowfall forecast in 2010, to a winter outlook for Oshkosh in 2011, to seasonal forecast numbers for the entire Midwest in 2012-13. The idea has certainly grown on me.

As we get "pattern change" shoved down our throats the next two weeks I want to reiterate the fact that this "pattern change" is not something new to the eyeballs that have been following the cycling patterns of 2012-13. The particular pattern has been projected for months. It is evident in all of the trends for the cities that will be affected. I will focus on temperatures. Below is a screenshot animation from the OSNW3|WxClimate site of a Google Geo Chart depicting the maximum temperature deviation for the Midwest cities selected for trends this season. There are three images in the animation. An image for Dec 1-14, Dec 15-28 and Dec 29-31. Clicking on the image will take you to the maps website for a larger view.



What isn't on the media radar yet, well at least I haven't seen it, is the extreme warm-up that could take place in the Midwest the last few days of 2012. Below is another screen capture of the OSNW3|WxClimate site. This Google Motion Chart is showing all of the cities max temperature departures from average for the month of December. By following the thick blue line it is evident something warm will be recurring near the end of the year. The same idea is shown above in the third frame of the animation.


(From the Event Mapping page click on "Motion Chart" to use the chart yourself)

We all know a weather prediction made one month out is seldom followed through to fruition. Most of us will not trust a computer generated forecast more than 3 days out. A major asset of the theory, in my opinion, is it's ability to predict significant "pattern change". Give or take a day, I am confident this will all take place, even before the populous had hints from long range computer models.

If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading!

Actively Seeking A Cycle Length

On Nov-4 I posted about a seasonal twist. The outcome of the so-called twist led me down a path of a new and extended cycle duration leaving an unanswered question as to why. I passed on the attempt to answer the question. Instead I followed this new cycle duration for another 10 ish days until the patterns yet again switched on me. Or did they? The cycle duration flux is documented in the comments of the linked entry above. To make a long story short, time has pushed forth and the map comparison below is where I am at in the cycle as of this posting. I will call it "55-ish" days.

(Sep-29)


(Nov-25 | 18Z GFS Nov-16)


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For the past year I've been working on a way to utilize the knowledge of cycling weather patterns. While I know there will be better ways to present the massive amounts of data in future renditions, with potential future partners, I decided I needed to pull the trigger with what I had built to see how it would perform in a real time environment. The host website will likely always be "under construction" but under most circumstances will always be in production. I invite everyone reading to gander at what I think our cycling weather patterns have to offer for weather and climate forecasting.



Click on the screen shot to navigate to the trends. I welcome all feedback on the site, the data, the 'model' output... anything, as it will help me improve/disregard the product in the future.

If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading!

Intangible Arguments Within The 2012-13 Cycle

Hurricane Sandy.

It is unlikely that the moisture from Sandy will be a recurring feature in this years cycle. It is a tropical entity and while another ULL may form again in other cycles, the genesis placement, path, and strength will most certainly differ as the Jet steadily marches south.

But first. As I understand, the cycle breathes, the duration of the cycle oscillates inside a 1-2 day window on either side. My last map to map correlation had a duration of around 53 days. Reanalyzing, now that the end date (Oct-23) is real and not a forecast model, I now see something just a little different. 51 days.

(Sep-5, 2012)


(Oct-25, 2012)


The map comparison above and the image combining them below show Low's in similar position. More info on the ULL off of Florida from early September click here. And, obviously Hurricane #Sandy.

(Sep-5 and Oct-25)


If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading!

The 2012-13 Cycle - From The OSNW3 Perspective

Finding the "transition" cycle was not easy. It took me over two years to even grasp the thought. The late summer and early fall of 2012 has been a break through season. I have to give credit to Doug Heady and Scott Metsker for assisting me in finding it. It truly does exist. The old 3/4-ish harmonic, below. (32 days)

(Sep-14)


(Oct-15)


Take a moment to follow this pattern back/forth through time (click on the images they will open a new tab). It can be a good lesson on how seasonal "twists" evolve. While this is the overly mentioned and often misinterpreted "stare and compare" method of viewing the correlations, to me it is still the preferred method. Unmolested data.

With hints from other theorists, I have been able to personally discover that it is possible to find the new cycle one to two months prior to the core theory, Gary Lezak, rule of October and November. While some will argue, I maintain my stance and make the effort in providing visual proof. Take the maps below for an example (50-ish days)...

(Aug-13)


(Oct-1)


Click on the images (they will open a new tab) and move the maps forward in time. A pattern exists six consecutive days until a seasonal twist interrupts the flow in the August pattern. After all, it was August and the waning anti-cyclone of summer was prevalent. Now, take the comparison below (53-ish days), here we are again seeing the same patterns of late summer and early autumn.

(Sep-1, 2012)


(Oct-23, 2012)


I am 99.9% confident that we have met the patterns that will be the cycle of 2012-13. Allowing the patterns to evolve with the season (patience) will harbor a definite and accurate long range forecast probability.

If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading!