Jan 23, 2013

Too Early To Make Predictions For Spring Storm Outbreaks?

The other day on the AccuWx Forums LRC Thread, Apo Agathos, questioned if it was too early to make predictions for spring storm outbreaks? It has become painfully obvious that many weather enthusiasts are once again very close to giving up on winter and setting their sites towards chasing thunderstorms.

Recently I completed the work to get the daily maximum temperatures stuffed into Google Motion Charts. This output allowed me to analyze daily Midwest temperature changes as an entity. With the 'spring storm' question on my mind I was on the lookout for a drastic change from warm to cool which can potentially heighten the possibility.

The first notable frontal passage is visible in early March.

The second comes during the same pattern the next cycle in late April.

Click on the images to navigate to the Motion Chart. Choose the correct month from the menu on the right. Click the play button and watch the pretty colors of the temperature flux in the Midwest. The chart is fully controllable allowing the user to change the chart type, select locations, scroll through time, etc. The forecast numbers are updated daily and are grouped by month.

When using the theory to project weather conditions months in advance it is necessary to give or take a day for the given time frame. Currently the forecast data is derived using a 52 day cycle length. The 500mb plots for this pattern in previous cycles are below. A link to the surface plot can be obtained by clicking on the 500mb plot image.

Nov 18, 2012

Jan 10, 2013

If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the theory or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading!

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