Jan 22, 2012

Signature Event #1

October 11-16
November 25-30
January 10-15
(first posted Dec-8, 2011)
(updated Jan-22, 2012)

I am labeling this a 'signature event' because of the significant warm up, temps 10+ degrees above average, followed by a cool down bringing temps back to average or slightly below and the half inch plus of precipitation in each of the first two cycles, a little less than a half inch in the third cycle. The cycle duration around this recurrence is about 46-ish days. It's plain to see the trough was oppositely tilted from one cycle to the next. The high pressures on both coasts could be considered culprits for the tilting and the squishing of the November trough tightly together while the Atlantic high then aided in creating a 'cut-off' low to form. Perhaps slowing the cycle a bit. The January version of the pattern had hints of both previous versions within it.

500mb Plot Comparison
(click on the image for a larger view)

Radar Comparisons
(click image for the loop - 14MB)

(click image for the loop - 14MB)

(click image for the loop - 14MB)

500mb Height and Max Temp Trends

I am anticipating the recurrence of this pattern in middle January. I wrote the previous sentence back on Dec 8, and now with this update the recurrence of this pattern will take place near the end of February and beginning of March. Will it bring snow or will it bring rain? If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading!


  1. Hi Josh,

    Just took a quick look through your latest blog posting. If you can manage the time to do so, I’d like to hear (read) what your present thoughts are with regards to a Xmas-NYear storm. From my admittedly ‘rather elementary’ understanding of the LRC, I’m assuming such a storm would be related to the Nov 8-10 weather (+ roughly fifty days) that occurred which would put the storm around Dec 28. It seems you’re presently using a basis of around 45 days per cycle and thus an earlier appearance (Dec 23 or so?). The confusion factor for me is the forecast of a storm for Dec 14 with a presently projected track very similar to the Nov 8 - 10 storm. It seems that the storm next week might be a ‘pseudo repeat’ to be followed 9 to 12 days later by the ‘real deal’ repeat that could possibly track more SE and be a snow maker?? However, it also seems possible that with the appearance of a storm on the 14th, present thinking on the later storm might need to be given some additional thought as to ‘when’.
    I like the addition of the ‘notes centered on Wi’ to your LRC calendar. Looking forward to consulting it throughout the year.

    Tony (Pl. Prairie)

  2. Hi Tony,

    Thanks for visiting! I think you are correct about the timing of the Nov 8-10 repeat being somewhere between xmas and nye. The other night I was digging through the 500's and came up with a 47-ish day duration. My little hand dandy calendar is currently pinned at 48 days. As for the next hand full of days I believe the 500 maps of Oct-27 and the GFS forecast model for Dec-14 match up quite nicely. Lately I've been using the NAM and staying 84hr and in, but in this particulat instance I like what the GFS is spitting out versus the NAM. Surface features around that time were rements of a low that slid through IA around Oct-25 and then a few days later a low that dropped into WI around Oct-29. I would think you'll be seeing some sort of action soon. Thanks for the impromptu analysis.

  3. Josh,

    Thanks for sharing your latest thinking, particularly with regards to possible end of year storm. I was really curious (LRC wise) as to whether or not the presently predicted Dec 14th or so storm was cause to ‘rethink’ the likely hood (and timing) of an end of year one. I don’t have any plans (travel etc) that would be seriously disrupted, but if I could pick a time, I’d prefer an event centered on the 28th rather than earlier or later, especially if it’s a snow rather than rain event. It seems that more often than not, my location is kind of ‘dicey’ when it comes to the rain/snow line. For the time being anyway, it seems I should still expect (based on LRC) to be dealing with an end of year storm; type and quantity of precip yet to be determined. Thanks again for letting me know (with considerable detail) how things seem to be shaping up from your perspective.

    Tony (Pl. Prairie)

  4. This is great stuff! Keep up the good work :)

    Dan K

  5. Thanks for stopping by Dan! I am anxious to watch this part of the pattern evolve once again.

  6. Hi Josh,

    How’s things looking for a ‘biggy’ or is it ‘biggie’ snow storm for around Valentines day?? Seems to me that would fall in line pretty good with the Nov 8-10 & Dec 28 events, based on your LRC calendar as well as how things looked at the time of your full winter forecast.

    Tony (Pl. Prairie)

  7. Ryan, thanks for stopping by! If you have any comments, ideas, or questions feel free to comment about them. The LRC continues to amaze me on a daily basis. For an example check out the three links below.

    Duluth, MN
    Oshkosh, WI
    Columbia, MO

    Hi Tony! How is extreme SE WI doing? Hmm, a V-DAY 'biggie', eh?! That is indeed the time frame of the recurrence for the systems that dropped copious amounts of precip on the region back in early November. However, the setup for it in late December was further east and was a total bust for us. With the dynamic spring like winter we're having there is no telling how the next recurrence will behave. Let's hope this cycle acts more like November. We could be in for some snow and a 'biggie' if we're lucky!

    Info on that time frame here.