A Transient Cycle Length with Multiple Phasing Cycles

So where was I? Ah yes, I dropped the high amplitude and frequency states (ISO short-term component, 10-20 days) from the CONUS output and plotted the 30-90 day correlations exclusively. More

The map below shows the RAOB stations that I collect data from. I don't collect Canada or Mexico and it seems I randomly do not collect in the deep south US. I blame it on laziness. I am super lazy.



My thoughts are not well organized or educated. They are likely difficult to follow. I will attempt to explain them in short detail. The image below shows which region the highest correlations stem from. The range is 0-1. The higher the value, the more high correlations stem from that region. Example; the daily analysis for 2/21 shows region 5 has 9% of it's stations reporting a top 10 value. Region 8 60% and region 9 67% of it's stations in the top 10. This correlation could be considered "east based", where this region shows the most correlation.



These correlations are charted in a heat-map like table form. The image below shows the first 21 days of February. The left most table is the top 10 cycle lengths, listed from left to right, 1 through 10. The table directly to the right is the corresponding correlation values. The 3 tables to the right are mode, median, and average of cycle lengths for the previous 30 days, since December 1st, and since August 1st. The entire table can be found here.



A quick analysis of the heat-maps suggest a transient cycle length with multiple phasing cycles taking place. Similar to a standing wave. If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Thanks for reading!

Framework: Use current NOAA/ESRL Radiosonde Database to analyze large-scale upper atmosphere patterns in standing wave notation. Described specifically to harmonics, reflecting the temporal/transient behavior of the frequency wavelengths in correlation and relating Intraseasonal Oscillation to Mid-Latitude recurring weather patterns.

Goal: Forecasting skill of upper-air and surface weather trends.

Map Comparisons...

For the data impaired. A snap shot in time.

Lost in translation (left) & map comparisons are a "cancer" to the cycle (right). LOL. See image. ~57 day #LRC #ISO pic.twitter.com/d2GOL4ogpF

— Josh Herman (@OSNW3) November 29, 2013

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And then there is this map. I hate doing this, because there is more to it, but it's not a coincidence these maps look similar. The cycle is at ~57 and long range models are always a couple days quick.



If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions please let me know. Thanks for reading!

OSNW3|WxClimate Trends 2013-14

Consider the Rossby Wave, a wave train carrying with it repeating intervals of atmospheric conditions.

Rossby Wave


2013-14 marks the fourth year that I have been following the recurring long term long wave troughs and ridges. Since my first days of learning of them from Jeremy Nelson, with the likes of Gary Lezak, Doug Heady, and the AccuWx Forum crew, my curiosity piqued. To make this story short, I am still here, but now I am looking at this LRC stuff with hopes of forming a reliable point of view.

Reconsider the basics of LRC. Two of the main points can be described well with the opening statement of this blog entry.

* Long term long-wave troughs and ridges become established and also repeat at regular times within the cycle. These dominant repeating features are a clue to where storm systems will reach peak strength, and where they will be their weakest.
* The LRC isn’t just one long-wave trough, storm system, or ridge. It is a sequence of troughs and ridges that are cycling across the Northern Hemisphere.

But, it is these last two that cause confusion and are a hurdle.

* This unique weather pattern sets up every year between October and November
* The weather pattern cycles, repeats, and continues through winter, spring and into summer.

It was Scott Metsker, an advocate of critical thinking, who turned me onto looking at the cyclic patterns with a more focused, data driven, scientific approach. I was introduced to Intraseasonal Oscillations, Boreal Summer Monsoons, Northward Propagation Mechanisms, Rossby Waves, Standing Wave Harmonics, etc. These items soon became embedded into my daily operational thoughts of the cyclic patterns.

How do I get over this hurdle of when the weather pattern sets up? How does this annual unique cycling weather pattern come to life? A simple answer can be obtained by connecting the dots mentioned above. Choosing the correct source material will open a mind blowing path to "organic forecasting" based on the planets cyclic atmospheric behavior.

But, before I ever got to the hurdle, I attempted to prove that the first couple points could be utilized to project weather and climate conditions. The last two years I have developed a 'model', which is the main point to this entry, that attempts to forecast temperature and precipitation weeks and months into the future. My equations are simple and the 2013-14 version is ready to be tested and reviewed. I am looking forward to the results, no matter the outcome.

If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions please let me know. Thanks for reading!