Western Great Lakes Region 2015-16 Winter Forecast Snapshot (DJFM)

The Framework: Utilize NOAA/ESRL Radiosonde Database to analyze large-scale upper atmosphere patterns in standing wave notation. Described specifically to harmonics, reflecting the temporal/transient behavior of the frequency wavelengths in correlation and relating Intraseasonal Oscillation to Mid-Latitude recurring weather patterns. The Goal: Forecast skill of upper-air and surface weather trends. The Test: Recurring Rossby Wave Train.

As of November 10, 2015 two dominant frequencies of correlation are identifiable. A low 30 and mid 40 day wavelength. Simply put, my model projects based on the weather pattern correlation standing wave behavior. Forecasts and analyses of this behavior can be found here. If more indepth information is desired I often Tweet and post on the AccuWx Forums.

Western Great Lakes Region 2015-16 Winter Forecast Snapshot (DJFM)
If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Click on the images for a larger view. Thanks for reading!

Testing of the Recurring Rossby Wave Train Continues

The 2015-16 website is located here. I've scaled down the amount of station trends I provide on the website. I sort of upped the ante with forecasts utilizing ESRL mapping techniques. I have partnered with some others to use their frequency and run it through my framework and push the results back to them. I am providing plenty of pattern correlation analysis as well. It's still fun I guess. If there are any questions or concerns about any of the material please leave a comment or email me.

I have provided links to the evolution of this farcical process. Each year it evolves, and I am looking forward to what I learn this year.

2014-15
2013-14
2012-13
2011-12
2010-11

Random Verification

I did a quick verification on my forecast maps that use the ESRL mapping. I picked a random projection range. 6/29-7/3. See the observed surface temp in attached image. Projection images listed below. (more here).



us-t2125-20150608-20150629-20150703
us-t1620-20150613-20150629-20150703
us-t1115-20150618-20150629-20150703
us-t0610-20150623-20150629-20150703

Seems my short-term forecasts 6-15 days were off a bit in this instance. The 16-25 days did OK. If you need help decoding the file name list above, see this link.

If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Click on images for larger views. Thanks for reading! #workinprogress

Current Recurring Rossby Components and a 2014-15 LRC Duration Hint

Let's begin with last years dominant components. (01AUG13-31JUL14)



75-79
49-51
40-42
26-26
14-15

Requirements are such that the correlation equals 0.4 or greater for any day throughout the year. The chart below shows how using the dominant harmonic may prove to be solid guidance as the short-term, mid-term, and long-term will all have their days in the sun so to speak. With a broad brush, when one component is out of frequency the other components are not. Difficult to imagine that ~57 didn't show up at all.



Below is the average of each component in 2013-14. 10-20, 30-60, and 60-90 days.



We caught onto the LRC duration last year around this time. What about this coming season? 17-18 days are tops this morning (31AUG14). 74-76 days are right behind. However, through August, 58-60 days has been the most dominant. Likely to swerve in the coming weeks.



With the long-term likely to cycle negative soon, the short/mid-term should recover and produce new patterns for the upcoming season. Discussing this with some others, I agree we can use the 74-76 day to find the LRC duration and confirm with the short-term using standing wave harmonics. Some suggest taking the current short-term from the current long-term for this years LRC duration. Give or take a day of course.

If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. New framework, new website, new content will be live sometime around 01OCT14. Thanks for reading!