Oshkosh Winters Of 1977-78 & 1978-79 Remembered & the Recurring Rossby Wave Train

With the fourth passing of the 'signature' storm in the annual RRWT and winter keeping a grip on the region I feel it is a great time to share the research I've done on the Oshkosh winters of 1977-78 and 1978-79. I decided to research these winters for a couple of reasons. The first being to learn the weather, climate and local history that accompanied the second all-time back-to-back snowiest seasons in Oshkosh's recorded history. The second reason being to research the Recurring Rossby Wave Train within them extending my learning of the method by providing visual details of the recurring patterns.

----

RESEARCH
I started my research of finding the RRWT within the two seasons by collecting the 500 mb heights from Green Bay, WI for the months of August through July (U of WY Department of Atmospheric Science). I then trended the data noting where major swings were taking place. Those swings led me to specific dates to view archived daily weather maps and compare 500mb plots (NOAA Central Library U.S. Daily Weather Maps Project). Paralleling the archived daily weather maps of U.S. with the 500mb heights from Green Bay I was able to find an average frequency for each season. 1977-78 about every 59 days and 1978-79 about every 58 days.

Framework of the Recurring Rossby Wave Train; Establish numerical output of recurring atmospheric states. Further explore the interrelated nature of planetary and synoptic waves via statistical modeling. Reflect this temporal and spatial behavior of Intraseasonal Oscillation to weather patterns based on the empirical data.

----

SUMMARY OF BOTH WINTERS AND RRWT
The winter of 1977-78 was characterized by two very snowy periods lasting about 17 days each. 28.6 inches of snow fell between Nov 23 and Dec 9, and 16.1 inches of snow fell between Jan 19 and Feb 5. The deepest depth of the winter of 19 inches was recorded in early December. Overall snowfall totaled 66.2 inches falling on 37 days with a max 24 hour snowfall of 9.0 inches which came from the worst blizzard to hit the region in quite some time. Temperatures plummeted below zero 38 times bottoming out at -11 in late January. Winter lasted 116 days starting on Nov 30 and ending on Mar 25, according to the OSNW3 Winter Duration. Click here for the winter duration graph. Click here for the daily climate data. Click the image below for newspaper headlines from the Oshkosh Northwestern dating Jan 25-31, 1978 documenting what the folks of Oshkosh were dealing with that winter.

(Worst Blizzard Of Winter Hits - Jan 26, 1978)


I chose two specific events during this season to follow through the recurring patterns; the first measurable snowfall and the first six inch snowfall of the season. The first measurable snowfall event brought a small amount of precipitation and/or snow each recurrence. A cool down followed the light precipitation during as a trough funneled in seasonably cool air to the region. The first six inch snowfall event brought a major snow storm/blizzard to the area in late January dropping 9 inches of new snow and ushering in an eight day span of daily high temps in the mid to low teens. A trough digging south into Texas brought the cold and snowy times to the region early in the season.

(First Measurable Snowfall - Nov 10-11, 1977)
This portion of the pattern took place about 61 days apart recurring on Jan 8-9, Mar 9-10 and May 9-10
Nov 10 - Jan 8, 60 days
Jan 8 - Mar 9, 61 days
Mar 9 - May 9, 62 days

Daily Weather Map Comparison (500mb map in bottom left) - 20MB

(First Six Inch Snowfall - Nov 29-Dec 1, 1977)
This portion of the pattern took place about 58 days apart recurring on Jan 24-26, Mar 23-25 and May 20-22
Nov 29 - Jan 24, 57 days
Jan 24 - Mar 23, 59 days
Mar 23 - May 20, 59 days

Daily Weather Map Comparison (500mb map in bottom left) - 30MB

The winter of 1978-79 was characterized by a persistent cold and snow that left an intensely deep snow pack that had a slow reprieve. Enduring back to back to back to back snow storms, the Jan 13 snow pack measured almost 2 feet and by Jan 25 the snow pack was at it's greatest depth of the winter, 28 inches. Not until Feb 23 did the snow pack fall below 20 inches giving the area a 20+ inch snow pack for 42 consecutive days. Overall snowfall totaled 87.5 inches falling on 44 days with a max 24 hour snowfall of 7.1 inches. This seasons snowfall total coupled with the previous seasons snowfall total of 66.2 inches is the second snowiest back-to-back winters in Oshkosh history coming in with 153.7 inches. The seasons of 1895-96 and 1896-97 are on top with 171.7 inches (the seasons of 2007-08 and 2008-09 are third with 146.0 inches). Temperatures dropped below zero 34 times with the coldest reading of -21 occurring in early January. Winter lasted 123 days starting on Dec 11 and ending on Apr 12, according to the OSNW3 Winter Duration. Click the link for the winter duration graph. Click the link for the daily climate data. Click the image below for newspaper headlines from the Oshkosh Northwestern dating Jan-Feb, 1979 documenting what the folks of Oshkosh were dealing with that winter.

(Anyone For A Picnic? - Jan 30, 1979)


With so many events taking place during this season I chose two random spots within the pattern that had a 'signature' to it and followed it through; A trough trudging it's way across the Great Lakes and a low pressure off the coast of southern California. The trough brought ridiculously cold air to the area and abnormally cool air in the early warm season.

(Trough - Nov 6-8, 1978)
This portion of the pattern took place about 58 days apart recurring on Jan 1-3, Mar 4-6 and Apr 27-29.
Nov 6 - Jan 1, 57 days
Jan 1 - Mar 4, 63 days
Mar 4 - Apr 27, 55 days

Daily Weather Map Comparison (500mb map in bottom left) - 30MB

(Low Pressure - Nov 23-26, 1978)
This portion of the pattern took place about 57 days apart recurring on Jan 17-20, Mar 16-19 and May 9-12.
Nov 23 - Jan 17, 56 days
Jan 17 - Mar 16, 59 days
Mar 16 - May 9, 55 days

Daily Weather Map Comparison (500mb map in bottom left) - 40MB

The "Firsts and Lasts" of both winters can be used as a quick comparison tool. Both winters started quick and snowy but only 78-79 was able to maintain and prolong the season into early April. Easy to tell from the list below that 78-79 was the monster of the two.

(1977-1979 Winter Firsts & Lasts)


----

FINAL THOUGHTS
Regarding Oshkosh in general, the Oshkosh Northwestern from the 77-78 winter tells a tale of snowcoverd sidewalks becoming a problem throughout the city. The lack in enforcement of the city snow removal code clogged sidewalks and news of it peppered the newspaper . The following winter, 78-79, it was noted that snow blowers had been sold out in all of Oshkosh. I have yet to experience such snow depths while living in Oshkosh, but I am certain I would have been a culprit of having a too often snow covered sidewalk. I rarely shovel anything less than an inch and if it weren't for my hard working neighbors and a periodic melt, my sidewalk would resemble my driveway most of the time, usually snow covered. (proof that the times have not changed)

The data and graphs that led me to my conclusions can be found by downloading the Microsoft Excel file located here. The file contains highlighted areas of my research which include daily surface data, atmospheric sounding data/graphs and event specific information of both winters. The archived daily weather maps used in the comparisons are located in the specific discussions but can also be found in each seasons image gallery here (1977-78) and here (1978-79). Using the spreadsheet I linked above will allow one to pin point particular weather events and dates from this time period. Referencing the maps from the NOAA Central Library U.S. Daily Weather Maps Project would then allow one to see the RRWT for themselves. I recommend using the maps to see other parts of the patterns from 77-78 and 78-79.

If anyone reading this has a memory from the time period discussed, please share your words in the comment section of this blog. It would be much appreciated. Also if there are any questions about my research and how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog as well. Thanks!

Backyard Snowfall Forecast (Feb-Mar)

My recent study of the LRC has provided a proper introduction into the world of snowfall forecasting. Without the LRC, creating a realistic backyard snowfall forecast would have been impossible and I would still be living week to week with false anticipations and snowfall anxiety. The guidance I have shamelessly acquired from LRCweather and WISN12 have been the catalyst in this endeavor.

I believe calculating and then graphing, thank you Scott, the daily maximum temperature deviation from the long term average has helped me realize that the cycle actually breathes. Analyzing the graph allowed me to line up the temperature peaks and valleys of each cycle to notice the continual change in length. The change in length is not drastic however, which I believe allows for stability in using the LRC for forecasting. The graph below displays the first three cycles, to date, of the 2010-11 LRC using 47 days as a constant. I chose 47 days because that may have been the official length of the LRC when I created my first backyard snowfall forecast on Dec 17, 2010.

(ALTDev - 2010-11 LRC)


Another way to watch the cycle breath is to analyze the 500mb plots. However daunting this task seems it is useful to make self proclamations on the length and to then let the professionals claim otherwise. There is no better way to learn than to learn from mistakes. This philosophy led me to the comparisons below. I will be comparing the plots frequently this forecast period to watch more closely when and, hopefully, why the cycle changes length.

(Oct 31, 2010 - Dec 17, 2010 - 47)


(Nov 14, 2010 - Jan 1, 2011 - 48)


(Nov 24, 2010 - Jan 10, 2011 - 47)


(Dec 2, 2010 - Jan 21, 2011 - 50)


Looking back at the past month it is obvious that this segment of the backyard snowfall forecast is calling for the "signature" storm a few days early. I am determined to not change the original forecast but at the same time correct the mistakes I made for the second forecast. A few mistakes I made were thoughtlessly thinking each storm was to provide snowfall, every snowfall was to bring a 10 to 1 ratio, and that the cycle would be static and easily determined throughout. Hopefully the correction of these ideas will help me provide my household with an improved forecast this time around as we enter the end of the third cycle and beginning of the fourth cycle. Current statistics on my first attempt at a backyard snowfall forecast are listed below. Although it looks close, the actual total of snow does not yet include the 'signature' storm which is my defining point in the forecast period length.

Actual Snow: 15.4" (to date)
Predicted Snow: 14"

I have attempted a second snowfall forecast which extends into March using a 50 day cycle constant. It is located here. It provides information on potential snowfall occurrences and accumulations. Up to 18 inches could fall between now and mid March. That amount would put OSNW3 into some of the winter forecast predictions bulls eye that were made prior to the season beginning. Well, the LRC winter forecast at least.

LRC Chit-Chat

As the month trudges on and the weather patterns cycle I can't help but think about how awesome Lezak's Recurring Cycle theory is. It allows average folk like myself to become much more aware of the struggles that exist in short and long range weather forecasting. To have forecast a month ago that a couple storm systems would pop up this coming weekend and early next week using sophisticated computer generated models would have been blasphemy. We are certain to not trust any model further out than a couple days. BUT, with the LRC it's almost second nature to do something so asinine. I strongly believe it is a tool all professional forecasters should carry. With that said, how am I doing on my rookie attempt at using the LRC to generate my backyard snowfall forecast? Currently I am 2 for 3 on predicting an actual snowfall during a forecast period. As far as amounts are concerned, I am slightly below 50% on accuracy. Not too shabby in my opinion. Total snowfall predicted for the period of Dec 17 through Jan 31 is around 14". Since Dec 17 OSNW3 has recorded 9.0" and with two predicted periods of snowfall remaining I can confidently say that 14" is certainly obtainable. More on this to come as we begin the transition out of the current forecast period and into the 4th cycle of the LRC. I am very excited to watch it all evolve. As always, the crew at WISN 12 in MKE and LRCWeather in KC are great educators on all subjects pertaining to weather, climate and the LRC. I recommend a visit to their sites for all curious persons.