May 3, 2011

May 19-21 2011 Spring Itch Classic Forecast Attempt - Bring Your A Game

** Update 5/16 **

The 2011 Spring Itch Classic golf tournament is taking place May 19-21 in the Upper Peninsula of MI. My goal with this forecast is to give the ones attending the event a good idea of what gear they should bring knowing they will be enduring many hours outdoors during these days.

This pattern in each of the cycles has had a persistent northwest flow concentrated near the upper Great Lakes. All the way back to September it was evident in the 500mb plots and surface observations. As the pattern cycled it produced considerably cooler than average temperatures. Surface observations at OSNW3 during this time period regarding cloud cover included at least one full day with mostly sunny skies which would be key in overcoming early morning frost if it were to occur. Precipitation was minimal along with no recorded strong wind events. It is to be noted that what has occurred in and around Northeast WI on the surface is likely to be different than what has occurred on the surface in the UP during this pattern through the cycles. Without researching surface observations from the UP during these time periods, I feel I can still boldly state that temps will be at the least 5-10 degrees cooler than Oshkosh and the chance of a mostly sunny day is less likely due to the proximity of Lake Superior. With that said an overall forecast for this time period based on the LRC can be summed up in few words, in my opinion. Mostly cloudy, cold and breezy with a small chance of an isolated light rain shower. Which means, bring long johns, winter gloves and hats, and rain gear. Keep the shorts at home fellas.

This part of the pattern takes place about a week or so before the 'big warm up' many of us in Northeast WI look forward to in this years LRC. A nice 'night cap' to end the cool and wet period we have all endured many times before this season. How high will the temps climb for a day or two near the end of May giving us a taste of summer? We will wait and see.

(500mb plots)
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20100914.html
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20101031.html
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20101217.html
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20110209.html
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20110329.html

OSNW3 surface observations can be found here.

To help keep LRC dates and data in order I created a LRC calendar. To keep time I highlighted this years signature storm and referenced the above comparisons in similar fashion. The LRC calendar can be found here. If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Good luck to all the golfers!

Thanks for reading!

** Update 5/10 **
Analyzing the latest model run for the 500mb vorticity, wind, and height for Thursday May 19, 2011 the flow doesn't seem to fit any other past cycle flows. Right now the projection is for a south southeast flow. Analyzing the AO and PNA Teleconnections however tell a different story in my opinion. The AO is trending negative and the PNA is mostly trending positive which usually means, if I understand them correctly, cooler times for our neck of the woods. It will be fun to watch the pattern evolve over the next week and a half.

(500mb vorticity, wind, and height forecast on May 10 for May 19)


** Update 5/11 **
And here it is. A complete change from one run to the next. This looks more like it! In the LRC I trust! Stiff north northwest flow early morning on May 19th lessening to a weaker west flow as the week ends. Notice the flow of the map below, compare it with previous cycles by clicking the links above. For a loop of the map below click here.

(500mb vorticity, wind, and height forecast on May 11 for May 19)


** Update 5/16 **
After analyzing the past few 500mb daily height contour maps and the 500mb vorticity, wind, and height forecast for Thu/Fri/Sat it seems I have misinterpreted the seasonal weakening of the jet and the effects it has on the LRC. The pattern will not be as potent from the north northwest as I originally thought back in the beginning of the month. In my eyes the signature storm cut-off from the main flow and is helping prevent the elongated north northwest flow and cool air of previous cycles. I am still learning and as spring turns to summer there is much more to learn. This instance being a great learning experience in my opinion. All in all, this is a GOOD THING. 7 day forecasts from the NWS give the area GOOD to GREAT WEATHER for spring golf in the UP. I would still keep the shorts at home and keep the winter hat, winter gloves and rain gear very close by, but as for the prediction of needing long johns because of the cold, I no longer see a need for them.

To find out more about the Teleconnections mentioned above click on the graphs at the top right.
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11 comments:

  1. Wednesday, May 4, 2011

    Hi Josh,

    Wow! That LRC calender alone was worth the price of admission! I hope I understand it as well as I think I do. DIC = days into cycle? Not sure what the column heading DMT is. Likewise with the yellow highlighted areas identified as SIC. Hope you’ll have some time to let me know. Good luck with the upcoming golf tournament!

    Cordially,
    Tony (Pl. Prairie)

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  2. Hey Tony, glad you made it over here. You are correct with the days in cycle. The DMT is "daily max temp deviation from average" and the SIC, well that is just another acronym for the "Spring Itch Classic". We like our acronyms over here.

    The yellow highlighted days are the days that I feel correspond to May 19-21 in each of the past cycles. If you click on the linked daily maps in the entry and move them forward in time you may see the same thing I do. If you have the time, let me know what you think!

    The bolded days are the days I linked the daily maps to...

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  3. Hi Josh,
    Thanks for making me feel welcomed. I appreciate you taking the time to answer my questions. I’m not into this deep enough to try comparing maps, but I just might take a look out of curiosity. For me anyway, the calender really illustrated this whole LRC for me. Any chance you might be presenting similar calenders for the past years you’ve researched?
    Speaking of the past, I’d like to offer another possibly ‘interesting’ year. Winter of 75/76. Not sure of your history knowledge so I’m just tossing this out in case you weren’t aware. Nov 10, 1975; the freighter Edmund Fitzgerald sank during a ferocious storm. Of course the main LRC connection is the date as in the Oct - Nov period often mentioned for the setting up of the LRC. Like I said, just a possible suggestion I wanted to pass along to you. Looking forward to following your blogs.
    Glad you took the ‘rice paddy’ comment for the humor I intended it to be!

    Cordially,
    Tony (Pl. Prairie)

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  4. Tony, I appreciate your ideas. I currently have two LRC projects in the queue. One is actually your idea from a comment on the WISN12 blog a couple months back of researching a year or two back in the 80s due to the extreme cold that occurred. It would mean a great deal to me if you reiterated the exact years, I have searched many comments on the WISN12 blog and have yet to find the actual comment. For my lack of memory I apologize.

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  5. Hi Josh,

    Checked my records. I’m fairly certain the post you’re referring to was actually to your other blog. 04-16-2011. The suggestion was for the winter of 81/82. I offer my suggestions as a way of saying thanks and to show my appreciation for you sharing so much with me and others. If any of my suggestions helps in even the smallest way, glad to have offered them to you. Please do not feel the slightest bit of obligation to give me any credit whatsoever.

    I’ll be keeping in touch,
    Tony (Pl. Prairie)

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  6. Saturday, May 7, 2011 11:13 pm

    Hi Josh,

    I just happened to remember that one of the first posts I made to WW12 was about that cold winter of 81/82. I don’t recall nor have a record readily available, but I think it was sometime around Oct/Nov of last year. Perhaps you happened upon that comment and that’s the ‘original’ one you were thinking of. In any case, the more recent comment I posted to your regular OSNW3 blog on 04-16-2011 is essentially the same and even more relevant since it was posted directly to you. Just thought you’d like to know in case you had some nagging doubt that you were sure you came across that info earlier and were sure it was in the WW12 blog. No need to go try and find it and no need to ‘worry’ that your memory may have been playing tricks on you.

    Cordially,
    Tony (Pl. Prairie)

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  7. Thanks Tony! The time looking back at the WISN12 blog was well spent even though I didn't find what I was looking for. Great info and insight inside that blog site and it's comments.

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  8. Wednesday, May 11, 2011 12:13 pm

    Hi Josh,

    Not sure what to think about the current weather. Usually around this part of a ‘signature’ storm, the talk on the WW12 blog is mostly about the track the storm is taking and what the models are showing. While there is some storminess around, I’m not to sure I understand it being associated with any particular storm system as such. Are we in the process of a ‘signature storm’ or not? No need for a prompt reply. I’ll check back occasionally. Just wanted you to know my present thinking.

    Cordially,
    Tony (Pl. Prairie)

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  9. Tony, yes indeed we are dealing with the 'signature' storm currently. It has arrived right on time. I will add more thoughts later as it is difficult to do so when I am not at a computer... phones are great but mine is limiting... thanks for thinking of coming over here to ask the question! I'm sure Jeremy will post another blog soon that will probably answer all your questions. :-) Fun stuff!

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  10. Tony, definitely the signature storm. I am guessing the track and model output is less significant as it will not be dropping several inches of snow. In my research of past years I recall noticing this same type of scenario with the jet scaling back... very interesting stuff. Once this baby gets out of here I put together the radar loop.

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  11. Thanks Josh. Will be looking forward to your write up.

    Tony (Pl. Prairie)

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