A Biography of the 2010-2011 LRC 'Signature Storm'

As the ‘signature storm’ approaches, I think it provides a good lesson on how the cycling patterns change through the seasons. It is evident that the feature, the 'signature storm', exists and that a ridge is setting up in relatively the same spot in similar type seasons like May and Sep if you believe we can go that far back. I like Sep 10 and Jun 30 forecast 500mb maps, 294 days apart, which averages 49 days. The 2010-2011 LRC is cycling between 45 and 54 days.

(Sep 10, 2010 - Cycle A)

(Jun 30, 2011 - Cycle 6 - Forecast)

Exciting to see the seasonal twists as the jet becomes more powerful peaking in Feb and then weakening as we roll through into Jul and Aug. The 500mb plots of the 'signature storm' cycle 1 through 5 are linked below.

Oct 26, 2010
Dec 11, 2010
Feb 1, 2011
Mar 22, 2011
May 11, 2011

For the sake of labeling and keeping a tracking system closely related to the professionals, I labeled Aug 1 through the first 50 days this season "Cycle A" and then each cycle after that numerically 1-6.

The dates I chose to analyze were derived from the LRC calendar I try to keep up to date as best I can. The calendar can be found here. If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading.

Early June Analysis: A Heat Wave?

Much of our region just endured the first significant heat wave of the season. This heat wave came relatively 'out of no where' according to the 2010-11 LRC trends, or at least how I interpret the trends. On average, the 7-10 day period after the "big warm-up" was followed by average to below average temperatures each time through the cycle. Looking at the maps below it is obvious the Nov, Jan, Feb, and Apr maps look similar while the Oct, and Jun maps look similar.

(Oct 5, 2010) 

(Nov 19, 2010) 46 days from Oct 5

(Jan 7, 2011) 51 days from Nov 19

(Feb 25, 2011) 49 days from Jan 7

(Apr 18, 2011) 53 days from Feb 25

(Jun 5, 2011) 49 days from Apr 18

Learning that the pattern takes on seasonal twists and then tracking this part of the pattern back to Oct a thought of "heat wave" could have been speak for this time around. With the jet being weaker and further north it is not out of the question that a large high pressure could take over, like it did somewhat in Oct and certainly did this early Jun. So with that thought I could easily be talked into the idea of when this part of the pattern rolls around the last week of July it could be extremely hot again. Will the patterns keep cycling or will they be fading as summer rolls on? We'll see. I'll be watching and reading what the experts say (linked blogs on right side).

The dates I chose to analyze were derived from the LRC calendar I try to keep up to date as best I can. The calendar can be found here. If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading.

** The dates above the 500mb maps are linked to Tim's Weather blog for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin daily weather reports.  In these reports Tim breaks down the upper air and provides a great discussion for the flow aloft that day.