Jun 3, 2012

The Battle Continues

Seriously, how fun is this, comparing the AccuWx 25 day forecast to the LRC? At this point, who really cares right? I mean, it is what it is. The theory is going to have critics, the theory is going to have followers. Personally, I am past trying to convince people (myself) that our atmosphere cycles. This stuff has become a passion and I just simply enjoy following along.

Anyone who follows along, anyone who takes the time to understand the theories (yes, it is not cut and dry) knows it is a fantastic magical joy ride crystal ball and is crucial to have in a forecasting bag of tricks. You know exactly what I am talking about, the smoke and mirror gag and the delusional eye strain gag where a woman gets chopped in half.

It all boils down to the beholders interpretation and I can't emphasize this feeling enough. My interpretation is in my calendar. Other interpretations are located on the right hand side of this blog under the "LRC Blog Roll". Once this baby breaks out it will come down to who legitimately follows along and it will be noticeably evident in the accuracy and confidence of the forecast.

Within my model analytic I have these magical buttons that suppress certain portions of a cycle. I decided to run the model twice for this comparison. I enjoying playing with numbers.

AccuWx 25 day forecast May 6-30, 2012 versus the LRC.
(cached version of AccuWx forecast)

Click on the graphs for the entire data set. If you choose not to, I can just tell you that AccuWx won versus the blend of all cycles of the LRC. Not by much, but still. I couldn't let the LRC lose, so I got rid of the March data. Wallah! LRC kicking butt once again.

If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading!


  1. Over many years, we have noticed about a 7 degree deviation. Some more, some less. Trending surface temps is tricky due to friction and micro climates. Might be interesting to analyze the trend more than the deviation when seeking correlation. In past analysis, it has been quite striking to see where there is a high correlation to the rise/fall of the trend to actuals vs the forecasted temps themselves.

    1. Scott, thanks for stopping by. Your wisdom is appreciated and your comment nailed it. It will always be fun (for me) to play with surface data to see how the cycle fairs against other forecasting methods.