I dedicated a small chunk of time tracking our current pattern back through the seasons. It was an interesting ride. The most obvious conclusion, leading up to this comparison, is we are still holding onto the overall 2011-12 cycle, but significant, while yet very small, changes are taking place. However, the recent and current instability has occurred before. This is the same pattern that brought the thunderous weather the first week of May when Oshkosh recorded 4+ inches of rainfall on May 2. Also the same pattern that riddled the area with thunderstorms the third week of June.
Anyway. Not for the lighthearted, but consider the Aug 3 500mb map.
(Aug 3, 2012)
Take this pattern back through each cycle to Oct 26, 2011.
2011-12 OSNW3 LRC Calendar
8/4, 6/19, 5/4, 3/18, 1/31, 12/14, 10/26 - give or take a day.
(Jun 19, 2012) - 46
(May 4, 2012) - 46
(Mar 18, 2012) - 47
(Jan 31, 2012) - 47
(Dec 14, 2011) - 48
(Oct 26, 2011) - 49
I searched for a September 2011 match beginning at 47 days from Oct 26. What I expected is to find a map not matching and that is exactly what I found. Going back and forth in time from that date I was able to see sporadic similarities to the 2011-12 cycle. See the morphing taking place? I was somewhat blown away. This theory never ceases to amaze me. Looking forward to the next two months!
If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog.