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Originally posted on the Wisconsin Weather Facebook page.
Utilizing intraseasonal oscillations and a cycling weather pattern called Lezak's Recurring Cycle we attempt to project weather conditions weeks and months into the future. Currently the data used to generate the forecast are based on a full blend of cycles. The outlook for June, based on our current interpretation of the cycle, is listed below. (http://tiny.cc/isowiwx)
•Precipitation will vary from NW to SE. NW below, SE above.
--> An inactive period works in mid month.
•Temps to begin cool, but steadily warm thru the third week.
--> A cool down lasting a couple days to begin the final week.
•Notable storm systems to affect the region;
Around the 7th.
Around the 21st.
Around the 30th.
•We are in progress of creating a three member ensemble that will enhance future long range forecasts. The bottom graph of this image is the high temperature and precipitation chance trend for Oshkosh between June 18 and August 9. More detail can be found by following the link. (http://tiny.cc/koshens - remember to give or take a day, or two)
Stick with Wisconsin Weather forecasters Justin Poublon and Hunter Anderson for daily forecasts.
More information on LRC and ISO.
LRC - http://osnw3lrc.blogspot.com/
ISO - http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/
If there are any questions or thoughts on the forecast or the presented material, please let us know by leaving a comment. Thanks for reading!
I'll be updating the ensemble forecast periodically as time rolls on. A live image is below. The snap shot is above.
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