The LRC Versus The GFS; Let The Fun Begin

I've been designing several LRC analysis tools the past few months and recently put the final touches on a 500mb height trend tool that will forecast said trends and compare them against the forecasts of the 7-14 day GFS (Global Forecast System). I am hopeful this tool will aid in my learning and understanding of the LRC.

The guts of the tool begin with 3 basic steps; the ability to access daily forecast and observed 500mb heights, extraction of the data into a configurable format and the task of manipulating the data into a structured database. The rest then is up to the beholder. Admittedly, a large amount of work which has culminated into a very user-friendly interface.

At the moment I have two specifics I want to accomplish with this tool. One, provide a sense of confidence in acknowledging when the patterns begin to stray from their predessors. With the past years cycle currently morphing into a new cycle, following the cycle in this manner should do just that. Two, is to contend the GFS 14 day 500mb forecast accuracy with that of the LRC 500mb trend accuracy. A trend that is simply a total mean blend of prior cycle heights. This coming winter season will provide a perfect battle ground. Below is a graph representing the latest cycle forecast period. Incredible how the LRC predicted the latest geopotential height plunge while the 7-14 day GFS forecast failed to do so.

(Green Bay, WI 500mb Forecast using the LRC - Aug 8 thru Sep 26, 2001)

It is noticeable in the graph above that the actual 500mb numbers do not precisely follow the LRC trend. That fault is directly tied to my personal interpretation of the theory as I am using the average amount of days (50) between recurring features. A self interpolation of the trend is required.

I am excited for my sophomore year following the LRC and what will be learned about the cyclic patterns within our atmosphere. For the entire set of the 2010-11 LRC season 500mb height forecast graphs please click here. If there is an interest in learning how to use the tool or obtaining any other tool I used to build it, feel free to inquire. I will be more than happy to share and exchange ideas. It is conceivable that this tool can be used for any location that has the required data available.

If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading!

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Tools (right click - save as)
- Daily 500mb Height Extraction
- GFS Forecast 500mb Height Extraction
- 500mbDailyForecast Dynamic Data & Charts

If there are any problems or questions let me know.

Waiting For The Next Genesis

We are now entering September and I want to keep track of where we are in the LRC patterns that we grew to love last year. I think the two maps below suggest we are still in the same pattern.

Sep 25, 2010

Sep 4, 2011

Almost identical and about a year apart in LRC terms. 345 days apart. Roughly 49 days per cycle as we are in the seventh cycle of the 2010-2011 LRC.

The warm up we are experiencing is the "big warm up" we've been talking about during each cycle this past year here in the Midwest through the Great Lakes region.

Sep 22, 2010
Nov 11, 2010
Dec 31, 2010
Feb 18, 2011
Apr 10, 2011
May 31, 2011
Jul 17, 2011
Sep 1, 2011

It will be interesting to see what happens in middle October when it cycles back around. It's been ingrained into my brain that the cycle will change come October as the troughs and ridges set up in slightly different areas of the continent.  I hope we can pool our efforts and watch the new cycle come alive! Exciting times!

And on that note, I admit, my time allotted for this analysis is limited so watching it live from last September until now is all I have currently, but if I had extra time I would follow this back into September of 2009 and see where the pattern was back then and watch it through the 2009-10 LRC year, etc.

The dates I chose to analyze were derived from the LRC calendar I try to keep up to date as best I can. The calendar can be found here. If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading.

The LRC; Full Circle

The weekend of August 13-14 was the annual Oshkosh City Golf Tournament held at Lakeshore Municipal Golf Course. 180 golfers competed in flighted championships complete with galleries of golf fanatics and press photographers. Back in July our friend Steve Ziblut, the professional at Lakeshore, asked me about the potential weather forecast for the event based on the LRC. It was an exciting time as it was to be my first LRC based forecast for an actual reason. The forecast was uncharted territory for me as this is my first year following the LRC and the fact that it is common talk among the LRC professionals that forecasting potential weather in August using the LRC is a bit tricky with the weakening of the jet and it retreating north. I "officially" responded to him on July 29 after a thorough analysis of the 2010/11 cycle. A very small and to the point snippet of the forecast text I sent him via email is below.

"I would suspect a chance of a thunderstorm Fri/Sat with drier and cooler air on Sun. Temps in the low 80s upper 70s."

Regardless of what was to happen weather wise after I made the forecast, I felt good about the forecast I gave him using the LRC and figured I would learn from it exponentially, so there was nothing to lose. Turns out the forecast verified and better yet, Oshkosh lucked out on Saturday, August 13 as the storms pushed south of the area keeping us dry. On Sunday, August 14 the air was clean and crisp with mostly sunny skies.

Maps and surface data that helped me come to my forecast conclusion are below. I really liked what the 500mb map of June 22, 2011 was showing, and following the cycle back into last September, I liked what September 3, 2010 was showing me as well. The virtual bookend months of the LRC, September and June, gave a good premise for the cycle maintaining itself into August!

(500mb map from Sep-3, 2010)

(500mb map from Jun-22, 2011)

(500mb map from Aug-13, 2011) 

(LRC 2010-2011 Full Circle)
Jul-15, 2010
Sep-3, 2010(51)
Oct-20, 2010(48)
Dec-3, 2010(45)
Jan-24, 2011(53)
Mar-14, 2011(50)
May-2, 2011(50)
Jun-22, 2011(52)
Aug-13, 2011(53)

With the 'signature' storm scheduled for another return this weekend, August 20th, I will turn my research towards the trough and ridge setups from the past LRC year and try to pick up on any variations for this upcoming LRC year. I will be updating my LRC calendar with the focus of following another cycle year with comparisons to the previous cycle year. I will be graphing the 500mb data, highlighting the days in the calendar for a graphical 'seasonal' view of the events such as; the Great Lakes Cyclone and the cold spell after the March version keeping winter around until April, the unexpected early June heat wave and how it didn't pan out a second time in July and the Oshkosh City Tournament weekend with it's exceptional showing of the LRC coming full circle. However, more importantly, the completion of the spreadsheet that will compare LRC based 500mb forecasts versus GFS 500mb forecasts. Looking forward to it.

The dates I chose to analyze were derived from the LRC calendar I try to keep up to date as best I can. The calendar can be found here. If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading.