Examples Of Cycle Morphing?

A few Accuweather.com Weather Forum members hanging out in the LRC 2011-12 thread were critiquing a pattern for the days of Sep-5 and Oct-19 taking on a similar look and feel at the 500mb level. This similarity begged the question of why/how could this be if the pattern sets up Oct through Nov. The simple answer is, when the jet meanders southward in Autumn the cycle begins to morph into an entirely new cycle and August and September hold clues to the new patterns taking hold during October and November. The cycle change is certainly not a discrete on-off switch from previous to new. Using the 500mb plots and following this particular pattern backward in time from the dates above I noticed, while these dates match up well, major differences come into play just 48 hours prior. The reason for the similarity is, I believe, the cycle was morphing into the new cycle while retaining similarities with the previous cycle.

(500mb Plot Sep-5, 2011)

(500mb Plot Oct-19, 2011)

Going forward it is very difficult for me to consider what happened after September 5th having any bearing on what we should expect October to bring. Similarities in the new pattern with the previous pattern do not come back until Oct-27 when Sep-22 takes on a similar look. Another potential morphing example.

(500mb Plot Sep-22, 2011)

(500mb Forecast Plot Oct-27, 2011)

Sometimes the 500mb plots don't do the trick in explaining the patterns within the cycle. Graphing the 500mb soundings for a location is also a very good way to gain recognition. In the graph below it is fairly easy to see the morphing effect as the actual 500mb heights derail from the average trend of several LRC cycles but then come back on track to only derail once again.

(500mb Soundings Sep-5 & Oct-19)

It is the time from October through November that the cycle regenerates (jet strengthens) leading us into the new cycle. Following along allows us to notice the signs of the previous cycle morphing into the new cycle. Amazing and very, very exciting! If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. The 2011-12 LRC calendar can be found here and is also accessible from the LRC Analysis Tools section in the upper right portion of the blog. Thanks for reading!

Consecutive LRC Cycle Years & Repeat 'Signature' Features Within Them

In the debate of previous cycle year patterns repeating in the new cycle year, I took the time to analyze two specific back to back cycle years. 1977-78/78-79 and 2009-10/10-11. While certain 'signature' features seem to repeat, the overall patterns are quite different. For the storm that was labeled the 'signature' storm in 2010-11 it doesn't surprise me that a conclusion could be made from a GFS forecast model that it may repeat in the 2011-12 cycle year. However, I am confident that the patterns leading up to it and following it are/will be different. I will provide links to my analysis below.

LRC 1977 thru 1979
For the 1977-79 time frame I choose one 'signature' feature to follow. To get a better glimpse of what the LRC calendar looked like for that time period please follow the Calendar7779 link. Click on the links below to bring up the maps for those days and follow the cycle through starting with Jan-9, 1978 and Jan-4, 1979. The signature feature in the middle atmosphere is noticeable, but as the days stray from the feature the pattern takes on a different look and feel from one another. See the Calendar7779 for daily surface observations as well. You will need the DjVu viewer (link to download below) to open the maps. I recommend it as I believe this is a good example of yearly differences.

1977-78 cycle averaged 59 ish days. (Start with 1/9/78)
http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/dwm/1978/19780109-19780115.djvu
http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/dwm/1978/19780116-19780122.djvu

1978-79 cycle averaged 57 ish days. (Start with 1/4/79)
http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/dwm/1979/19790101-19790107.djvu
http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/dwm/1979/19790108-19790114.djvu

Calendar7779
http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/Calendar7779.html

Original Blog Entry & Data
http://osnw3lrc.blogspot.com/2011/03/oshkosh-winters-of-1977-78-1978-79.html
http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/lrc_7779.xlsx

DjVu Viewer Download
http://www.celartem.com/en/download/djvu.asp#win

LRC 2009 thru 2011
Bringing myself closer to the present and watching events I can actually remember I analyzed the past two years. I defined my time keeper as the signature storm from 2010-11 and followed it back through 2009. It is certainly a feature that could be considered a repeat feature but in reality it is all actually quite different.

Calendar091011
http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/Calendar091011.html

Map links for easy access
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20090925.html
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20091116.html
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20091231.html
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20100223.html
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20100416.html
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20100603.html
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20100724.html
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20100911.html
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20101026.html
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20101211.html

If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading!

The LRC Versus The GFS; Let The Fun Begin

I've been designing several LRC analysis tools the past few months and recently put the final touches on a 500mb height trend tool that will forecast said trends and compare them against the forecasts of the 7-14 day GFS (Global Forecast System). I am hopeful this tool will aid in my learning and understanding of the LRC.

The guts of the tool begin with 3 basic steps; the ability to access daily forecast and observed 500mb heights, extraction of the data into a configurable format and the task of manipulating the data into a structured database. The rest then is up to the beholder. Admittedly, a large amount of work which has culminated into a very user-friendly interface.

At the moment I have two specifics I want to accomplish with this tool. One, provide a sense of confidence in acknowledging when the patterns begin to stray from their predessors. With the past years cycle currently morphing into a new cycle, following the cycle in this manner should do just that. Two, is to contend the GFS 14 day 500mb forecast accuracy with that of the LRC 500mb trend accuracy. A trend that is simply a total mean blend of prior cycle heights. This coming winter season will provide a perfect battle ground. Below is a graph representing the latest cycle forecast period. Incredible how the LRC predicted the latest geopotential height plunge while the 7-14 day GFS forecast failed to do so.

(Green Bay, WI 500mb Forecast using the LRC - Aug 8 thru Sep 26, 2001)

It is noticeable in the graph above that the actual 500mb numbers do not precisely follow the LRC trend. That fault is directly tied to my personal interpretation of the theory as I am using the average amount of days (50) between recurring features. A self interpolation of the trend is required.

I am excited for my sophomore year following the LRC and what will be learned about the cyclic patterns within our atmosphere. For the entire set of the 2010-11 LRC season 500mb height forecast graphs please click here. If there is an interest in learning how to use the tool or obtaining any other tool I used to build it, feel free to inquire. I will be more than happy to share and exchange ideas. It is conceivable that this tool can be used for any location that has the required data available.

If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading!

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Tools (right click - save as)
- Daily 500mb Height Extraction
- GFS Forecast 500mb Height Extraction
- 500mbDailyForecast Dynamic Data & Charts

If there are any problems or questions let me know.