The March Anomaly & LRC Center

March was a cycle data buster. Or was it? Below are two LRC forecast trends. One with the March data used in it and another without the March data used in it. In particular, the dates I wanted to throw out were Mar 3-26, but to make it quick I just threw out all March data. The trending data for this part of the cycle, highlighted in the images below, show rising temperatures, but as we know the cycling weather patterns go through seasonal twists due to jet position. Is it prudent to disregard cycle data to provide a better understanding of the LRC? How about when providing a long range forecast?

(Oshkosh Forecast Trend With March)

(Oshkosh Forecast Trend Without March)

We are currently a handful of cycles along in this years LRC and in any given cycle year being this far along choosing which cycle resembles one another certainly provides engaging results. For instance, the trend below shows what I labeled 'Cycle 1' and 'Cycle 4' in the forecast trends. The dates of these particular cycles are Nov7-Dec23 and Mar27-May12. (I understand that my 'forecast cycle 1' could very easily be cycle 2 or 3 depending how one chooses to the follow the cycling patterns). The two sets of data match up very well with the peeks and valleys flowing in parallel.

(Oshkosh MaxT - Nov7-Dec23 and Mar27-May12)

A .. SOND .. JF .. MAMJ .. J
(each letter is a month, starting with August left to right)

It certainly seems if we use a center point of where jet position is similar (JF) and move out in both directions from that point, that the particular cycles happening in the particular months should be more alike than any of the other cycles. Something to keep in my when perusing the forecast trends I provide. This potential phenomena in the LRC is evident in the trend above as each cycle moves farther from "center" JF.

If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading!

AccuWx 25 vs LRC 25

The numbers are in for the @AccuWx 25 vs the #LRC comparison! You be the judge! tiny.cc/awxlrc0412 May comparison begins soon. #wiwx
— Josh Herman (@OSNW3) May 2, 2012

--- Original Entry Below (4/4/12)

AccuWeather.com released a 25-Day Forecast that can help users make informed decisions about long-term plans. ow.ly/a4Rsw
— Meghan Evans ☂ (@WxMeghanEvans) April 4, 2012

Accuweather debuts new 25-day forecasts. In the words of John McEnroe, "You cannot be serious!" wapo.st/Het9eT
— Minnesota Forecaster (@MNforecaster) April 4, 2012

I promote looking into a crystal ball. Especially if one has the means and tener cojones. I agree with what the AccuWx how to article states... "following trends in the weather is key".

(AccuWeather's 25 Day Forecast Trend for Oshkosh, WI)

(OSNW3's April Forecast Trend based on the LRC for Oshkosh, WI)



Analyzing the two trends above it is apparent they differ in the long range. I've cached the webpage that generated the AccuWx trend on April 4. It can be found here. As the month moves forward I will be comparing the trends and grading the verification. Fun, fun, fun. (the LRC based trends will update automatically as the actual temperatures are updated every couple days)

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If someone unfamiliar with the LRC looks at my trends they'll most likely blow them off as some hodge podge BS, as many did toward the AccuWx 25 in the comments of the article linked above. But, on the other hand, if one is a little familiar with the LRC and follows along once and a while, then it is possible they will understand just what the trends provide. By analyzing the 500mb maps and data one can find the cycle within each year. It's a task not for the lighthearted. One thing to remember about the LRC is that it is not one storm that cycles, it is the longwave troughs and ridges that cycle. Seasonal positioning of the jet brings twists to each cycling pattern. It is important to 'live' the cycle. Taking a couple weeks off makes it very difficult to pick back up. I keep a 'LRC calendar' to aid in following along each year. Consider it my crutch. Total satisfaction can really only be achieved by following along.

I am bias to my region when following the LRC. However, this year I branched out and created more trends for other cities. The branching out proves to me that it would take quadruple the time and effort to follow along in all corners of the CONUS. I commend all who do. Currently I trend min/max temps and precip days. Each trend is laid out as if it were one cycle. Vertically scrolling up and down will lead the trends in and out of different cycles. The x's are the daily min/max deviation from the long term temperature average for the corresponding days in each cycle. The green line is the median deviation from average for the corresponding days in each cycle. The black line is the long term average. Precip occurring during a cycle is given a value of five on the scale. If precip occurs again in another cycle on the corresponding day, five is added to the number for the next cycle trend. Some days have better odds of precipitation because precipitation was recorded on the corresponding days in the cycle. They are displayed as a higher vertical line. For the days that have been archived, a "green cap" on the vertical line means precipitation was recorded on that day. Basically a tiered bias growing in potential each recurrence of recorded precip on corresponding days in the cycle.

All of the min/max temp and precip trends based on the LRC can be found here.

I truly believe anyone can make weather projections long term using the LRC. I've spent an great deal of effort coding this particular 'LRC model' and I am always trying to improve it. If you have any suggestions please let me know. It's all very obvious how a long range forecast can aid the average person, like myself. I use the LRC trend everyday.

A potential situation for sensitive vegetation in the long range temp forecast based on the #LRC. twitpic.com/8xjo4f
— Josh Herman (@OSNW3) March 17, 2012

If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading!

Oshkosh Winter Prediction - Cycle 3 Performance Review

Back in late November when I pulled the first cycle data together to produce the Oshkosh Winter Forecast I banked on the cycle averaging 48 days per cycle. As we LRC followers know the cycle breathes and is never a static length. To this day the cycle in 2011-12 is averaging 46 ish days. This obviously means the dates and times of month I chose to pin point events is skewed slightly. With that said, the original forecast is still comprehendible with minimal self interpolation.

The original forecast called for the cycle 3 forecast period to fall between Feb-20 through Apr-7. In actuality it was Feb-17 through Apr-3. The OSNW3 LRC Calendar can shed more light on the cycle duration. Below I compare the OSNW3 surface observations between Feb-17 through Apr-4 against the LRC based forecast conditions for Feb-20 through Apr-7 made in late Nov and analyze how they have performed in forecast cycle 3.

Prediction
Days with Measurable Snow (0.1" or greater)
Forecast Cycle 3 = 4 days (Feb-20 thru Apr-7)
- Actual
Actual Cycle 3 (Feb-17 thru Apr-3)
- 6 days with 0.1" or greater snowfall.
- 66% accuracy

Prediction
Total Snow Accumulation
Forecast Cycle 3 = 9 inches of snow (Feb-20 thru Apr-7)
- Actual
Actual Cycle 3 (Feb-17 thru Apr-3)
- 9 inches of snow
- 100% accuracy

Prediction
Temperatures
The data trend leads me to believe that there will be enough warm spells to compensate for the majority of cold air events within each cycle leading to Above Average temperatures for the winter. The numbers tell me 1 to 3 degrees above average each cycle. Don't get me wrong, there will be some cold stretches this winter, there is no doubt about it, but with warm-ups scattered about may make the overall winter not seem so harsh temperature wise.
- Actual
- Daily Maximum temperatures were an astonishing 12 degrees above the (81-10) 30 year average for the actual cycle 3 period.

Note on temperatures... using the LRC I was convinced temps would be above average while others were calling for a cold winter. The calculated average temp from cycle 1 was 3+ degrees above average. I biased the prediction on the low side because the pros were calling for colder than average. I may have learned a lesson. The LRC data doesn't lie and it is a very powerful forecasting tool.

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What should we expect in Cycle 4?
Sticking with the original forecast numbers made back in November for cycle 4, we should expect about 2 days with measurable snowfall accumulating around 1 inch. Temperatures should stay above average for the cycle once again. With a bump or two in the road, spring will continue to amaze and May should begin with a summer feel to it. A cool and wet middle part of May will give way to more summer like weather. While the winter predictions will end the LRC trends will continue to project our future weather. Expect a warm Memorial Day and a very warm end to June. When using the LRC forecast trend below remember to give or take a day, or two!

(Temperature & Precipitation Forecast Trend For Oshkosh)


If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading!