A Biography of the 2010-2011 LRC 'Signature Storm'

As the ‘signature storm’ approaches, I think it provides a good lesson on how the cycling patterns change through the seasons. It is evident that the feature, the 'signature storm', exists and that a ridge is setting up in relatively the same spot in similar type seasons like May and Sep if you believe we can go that far back. I like Sep 10 and Jun 30 forecast 500mb maps, 294 days apart, which averages 49 days. The 2010-2011 LRC is cycling between 45 and 54 days.

(Sep 10, 2010 - Cycle A)

(Jun 30, 2011 - Cycle 6 - Forecast)

Exciting to see the seasonal twists as the jet becomes more powerful peaking in Feb and then weakening as we roll through into Jul and Aug. The 500mb plots of the 'signature storm' cycle 1 through 5 are linked below.

Oct 26, 2010
Dec 11, 2010
Feb 1, 2011
Mar 22, 2011
May 11, 2011

For the sake of labeling and keeping a tracking system closely related to the professionals, I labeled Aug 1 through the first 50 days this season "Cycle A" and then each cycle after that numerically 1-6.

The dates I chose to analyze were derived from the LRC calendar I try to keep up to date as best I can. The calendar can be found here. If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading.

Early June Analysis: A Heat Wave?

Much of our region just endured the first significant heat wave of the season. This heat wave came relatively 'out of no where' according to the 2010-11 LRC trends, or at least how I interpret the trends. On average, the 7-10 day period after the "big warm-up" was followed by average to below average temperatures each time through the cycle. Looking at the maps below it is obvious the Nov, Jan, Feb, and Apr maps look similar while the Oct, and Jun maps look similar.

(Oct 5, 2010) 

(Nov 19, 2010) 46 days from Oct 5

(Jan 7, 2011) 51 days from Nov 19

(Feb 25, 2011) 49 days from Jan 7

(Apr 18, 2011) 53 days from Feb 25

(Jun 5, 2011) 49 days from Apr 18

Learning that the pattern takes on seasonal twists and then tracking this part of the pattern back to Oct a thought of "heat wave" could have been speak for this time around. With the jet being weaker and further north it is not out of the question that a large high pressure could take over, like it did somewhat in Oct and certainly did this early Jun. So with that thought I could easily be talked into the idea of when this part of the pattern rolls around the last week of July it could be extremely hot again. Will the patterns keep cycling or will they be fading as summer rolls on? We'll see. I'll be watching and reading what the experts say (linked blogs on right side).

The dates I chose to analyze were derived from the LRC calendar I try to keep up to date as best I can. The calendar can be found here. If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading.

** The dates above the 500mb maps are linked to Tim's Weather blog for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin daily weather reports.  In these reports Tim breaks down the upper air and provides a great discussion for the flow aloft that day.

May 19-21 2011 Spring Itch Classic Forecast Attempt - Bring Your A Game

** Update 5/16 **

The 2011 Spring Itch Classic golf tournament is taking place May 19-21 in the Upper Peninsula of MI. My goal with this forecast is to give the ones attending the event a good idea of what gear they should bring knowing they will be enduring many hours outdoors during these days.

This pattern in each of the cycles has had a persistent northwest flow concentrated near the upper Great Lakes. All the way back to September it was evident in the 500mb plots and surface observations. As the pattern cycled it produced considerably cooler than average temperatures. Surface observations at OSNW3 during this time period regarding cloud cover included at least one full day with mostly sunny skies which would be key in overcoming early morning frost if it were to occur. Precipitation was minimal along with no recorded strong wind events. It is to be noted that what has occurred in and around Northeast WI on the surface is likely to be different than what has occurred on the surface in the UP during this pattern through the cycles. Without researching surface observations from the UP during these time periods, I feel I can still boldly state that temps will be at the least 5-10 degrees cooler than Oshkosh and the chance of a mostly sunny day is less likely due to the proximity of Lake Superior. With that said an overall forecast for this time period based on the LRC can be summed up in few words, in my opinion. Mostly cloudy, cold and breezy with a small chance of an isolated light rain shower. Which means, bring long johns, winter gloves and hats, and rain gear. Keep the shorts at home fellas.

This part of the pattern takes place about a week or so before the 'big warm up' many of us in Northeast WI look forward to in this years LRC. A nice 'night cap' to end the cool and wet period we have all endured many times before this season. How high will the temps climb for a day or two near the end of May giving us a taste of summer? We will wait and see.

(500mb plots)
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20100914.html
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20101031.html
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20101217.html
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20110209.html
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20110329.html

OSNW3 surface observations can be found here.

To help keep LRC dates and data in order I created a LRC calendar. To keep time I highlighted this years signature storm and referenced the above comparisons in similar fashion. The LRC calendar can be found here. If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Good luck to all the golfers!

Thanks for reading!

** Update 5/10 **
Analyzing the latest model run for the 500mb vorticity, wind, and height for Thursday May 19, 2011 the flow doesn't seem to fit any other past cycle flows. Right now the projection is for a south southeast flow. Analyzing the AO and PNA Teleconnections however tell a different story in my opinion. The AO is trending negative and the PNA is mostly trending positive which usually means, if I understand them correctly, cooler times for our neck of the woods. It will be fun to watch the pattern evolve over the next week and a half.

(500mb vorticity, wind, and height forecast on May 10 for May 19)


** Update 5/11 **
And here it is. A complete change from one run to the next. This looks more like it! In the LRC I trust! Stiff north northwest flow early morning on May 19th lessening to a weaker west flow as the week ends. Notice the flow of the map below, compare it with previous cycles by clicking the links above. For a loop of the map below click here.

(500mb vorticity, wind, and height forecast on May 11 for May 19)


** Update 5/16 **
After analyzing the past few 500mb daily height contour maps and the 500mb vorticity, wind, and height forecast for Thu/Fri/Sat it seems I have misinterpreted the seasonal weakening of the jet and the effects it has on the LRC. The pattern will not be as potent from the north northwest as I originally thought back in the beginning of the month. In my eyes the signature storm cut-off from the main flow and is helping prevent the elongated north northwest flow and cool air of previous cycles. I am still learning and as spring turns to summer there is much more to learn. This instance being a great learning experience in my opinion. All in all, this is a GOOD THING. 7 day forecasts from the NWS give the area GOOD to GREAT WEATHER for spring golf in the UP. I would still keep the shorts at home and keep the winter hat, winter gloves and rain gear very close by, but as for the prediction of needing long johns because of the cold, I no longer see a need for them.

To find out more about the Teleconnections mentioned above click on the graphs at the top right.
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