Forecast Model
I have created an ensemble consisting of three members and a mean in hopes of enhancing model accuracy this season. In past seasons I have just used a full blend.
Member 1 (M1) – Full blend of cycles
Member 2 (M2) – Weighted blend of cycles
Member 3 (M3) – Bering Sea Rule
Ensemble Mean (Mean) – Weighted result of the Members
If more information on each of the members is needed feel free to contact me. I would be happy to explain them in further detail. >> More
Forecast Visualization
I have gone from using images to interactive data visualizations this season. Thanks goes out to Scott Metsker for helping me realize it is doable and to Google Viz for making it easy.
Station Visualization
.Charts
--I have configured a four panel chart for the 2013-14 season. The top two charts depict forecast max temperature and min temperature. The bottom two charts depict forecast precipitation and snow. Precipitation is charted 0-100% chance. If precipitation was observed at the station a tick mark will appear for that day at the bottom of the chart. Snow is in a plume format showing each member and mean forecast snowfall output in inches.
--The charts are controlled by changing the date range on the slider below the fourth chart. It can be slid back and forth, extended and trimmed. Default range is the current cycle length. Mouse over the chart data for a tool tip of daily forecast data. The API takes less than 30 seconds to load. If it times out, refresh the page. If in a hurry, just click on the Excel Interactive View above for a table of the daily data.
.Tables
--I have configured a list for the three member ensemble Mean forecast values for a month and season. The table shows max temperature, min temperature, precipitation, snow, and days with snow forecasts for an entire month and season. Also listed is the station average for the season. Observed values are updated at the end of a season.
Regional Visualization
.Maps
--Max temperature departure from average is mapped in semi monthly increments. The time frame can be selected by using the drop down list in the upper left corner of the map frame. The map data can be viewed by scrolling over the dot.
--I am also mapping and listing total precipitation, snowfall total, and days with measurable snowfall. The time frame can be selected by clicking the desired month or season from the links on the left side of the page. The map data can be viewed by scrolling over the dot. The table can be sorted by category by clicking on the column header.
.Charts
--I have configured motion charts for daily max temperature departures from average for each station. The motion chart gives several different ways to view the data. The motion chart is configured to default in the bar graph format. Use the tabs in the upper right hand corner of the chart to change the chart type. The color of the data in the chart can be changed, along with both the x and y axis value. Clicking the play button puts the data in motion. The time frame for a chart can be selected by clicking the desired month or season from the links on the left side of the page
--I am also charting a cyclic view of the AO, NAO, and PNA teleconnection along with the Bering Sea Rule and Typhoon Rule.
If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions please let me know. Thanks for reading! The site in reference can be found by clicking here.
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