Testing: Severe Weather Pattern Projection Based on the Recurring Rossby Wave Train, Bering Sea Rule, and Typhoon Rule

We generated a small time sample of potential Spring severe weather pattern based on the Recurring Rossby Wave Train, Bering Sea Rule, and Typhoon Rule, also know as the Organic Forecasting technique called the "trifecta". To simplify the write-up the RRWT hindsight dates are linked to their corresponding H5 map. For the daily SPC storm reports go here and change the date in the url. The projection dates are listed below the chart and are bolded.

The chart below shows the regional RRWT oscillation period average. The oscillation period average is used to project the initial future date that is expected to hold similar weather pattern ingredients as previous oscillation period weather patterns, +/- 3 days. The projections will be maintained once the projection date is ~30 days from realization. Methods used to confirm original projection will consist of modeled BSR(~30 days), current RRWT oscillation period(~30 days), observed BSR(~20 days), modeled TR(~16 days), observed TR(~8 days), and GFS/GEM/EURO model guidance(~3 days).



Hindsight dates
09/08-11/05-12/23
09/18-11/11-12/30
09/27-11/16-01/09

Foresight dates using OP of 52 days
12/23-02/13-04/05-05/27 (Ref)
12/30-02/20-04/12-06/03 (Ref)
01/09-03/01-04/22-06/13 (Ref)

If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know.

Bering Sea Rule & Typhoon Rule

Experimenting with the BSR and TR to find a medium range Midwest temperature trend. I took the easy route to put this together. Using Joseph Renken's explanation of the rules I simply laid it out as a control loop. My process variable is the Midwest mean temperature. My setpoint is the surface data from the specified regions. My control variable is the correlation days. Stuff it together any way you'd like I suppose.

My application of both the BSR and TR is a retrofit. What I am correlating isn't the BSR or TR technically. The regions in comparison are the western shores of the Bering Sea for the BSR and Japan for the TR. For the BSR/TR charts, I kept the M1, M2, M3 moniker of my station trends for consistency. Each "member" is a different observation station in that region.

BSR currently uses
Member 1 (M1) – UHMA
Member 2 (M2) – UHMM
Member 3 (M3) – UHPP

TR currently uses
Member 1 (M1) – RJTT
Member 2 (M2) – RJOH
Member 3 (M3) – RJSI

The BSR/TR chart is based on MaxT. The Midwest Mean is currently the MaxT anomaly for the stations list below. If there are suggestions on which stations to include or exclude I am open to them! MSP, DSM, COU, CMI, MSN, ARB, DAY, LNK, FSD, FAR. All this is preliminary work and subject to change.

Bering Sea Rule


Charts


If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the BSR and TR or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading!