2011-12 Oshkosh Winter Forecast Based On The LRC

I first heard about Lezak's Recurring Cycle theory in early October of 2010 from WISN12's Jeremy Nelson. My initial thoughts were that it was too good to be true. Then it happened, I was convinced after one in-depth analysis that it indeed existed. I will admit it didn't take long for me to buy in and afterwards I wondered why I hadn't heard about it before. A little over a year later and an extreme amount of hours dedicated to research and analysis, following the theory has grown into a passion. To this day I endorse the theory to my fullest capacity.

Caught up in all the hype and excitement of learning more about the LRC last winter I attempted a backyard snowfall forecast. Little did I realize that this endeavor would be the proverbial tip of the iceberg. Following the LRC for the past year has led me down a path of constant learning about the upper atmosphere and how it affects the weather on the surface. The benefits of following the theory and thus knowing the likely weather and climate scenarios weeks and months ahead of time are boundless.

In 2011 the OSNW3 backyard snowfall forecast has evolved into a Oshkosh Winter Forecast pin pointing specific weather events and surface weather trends for the area. An exciting project only truly conceivable because of the LRC.

----

Again, What Is The LRC?
The ’LRC’ which stands for Lezak’s Recurring Cycle is a weather pattern theory based on the following:

* A unique weather pattern sets up every year between October and November
* The weather pattern cycles, repeats, and continues through winter, spring and into summer.
* Long term long-wave troughs and ridges become established and also repeat at regular times within the cycle. These dominant repeating features are a clue to where storm systems will reach peak strength, and where they will be their weakest.
* The LRC isn’t just one long-wave trough, storm system, or ridge. It is a sequence of troughs and ridges that are cycling across the Northern Hemisphere.

To put this in very simple terms, the weather pattern that occurs in October and November repeats thru the winter, spring, and into summer. The cycle length will vary each year.

----

The Forecast
No reason to reiterate any more words of Jeremy Nelson of WISN12 or Gary Lezak of LRC Weather. With the cycle duration in clear sites, the cycling weather patterns will now do what they do. Please visit Jeremy's and Gary's winter forecast, linked below, as they dissect the long term long wave troughs and ridges that will be our weather until summer!

Weather Watch 12
LRC Weather

To create the 2011-12 Oshkosh winter forecast I am leaning on all of my rookie year experiences following the LRC. The main focus being the affect the atmospheric flow 18,000 feet above the earth has on the OSNW3 recorded surface data throughout the seasons and each cycle of the LRC. The predictions below are based on a 46-48 day cycle duration. Shrinking and expanding of the duration will take place as the seasons move along.

Disclaimer: It is understood that the weather can change instantly and despite my best attempts to understand the weather patterns my weather predictions might be incorrect.

Notable Weather Events
Cycle 1 (Nov-25 thru Jan-2)
-Early Dec Cold
-Late Dec Snowstorm/Cold
-New Year Warm-up
Cycle 2 (Jan-3 thru Feb-19)
-Mid Jan Warm-up
-Late Jan/Early Feb Cold
-Mid Feb Snowstorm/Cold
-Mid Feb Warm-up
Cycle 3 (Feb-20 thru Apr-7)
-Early Mar Warm-up
-Late Mar/Early Apr Snowstorm/Cold
-Early Apr Warm-up (spring clean-up)
Cycle 4 (Apr-8 thru May-25)
-Early May Flakes (chilly start to golf leagues)

Events are open to deeper daily analysis queries if desired. This leads into the main focus of any winter forecast. Snowfall!

Days with Measurable Snow
C1 = 13 (Nov-25 thru Jan-2)
C2 = 12 (Jan-3 thru Feb-19)
C3 = 4 (Feb-20 thru Apr-7)
C4 = 2 (Apr-8 thru May-25)
Season = 31 (including the Nov-9 snowfall)
*9 days above average (1981-2010)

Total Snow Accumulation
C1 = 16" (Nov-25 thru Jan-2)
C2 = 17" (Jan-3 thru Feb-19)
C3 = 9" (Feb-20 thru Apr-7)
C4 = 1" (Apr-8 thru May-25)
Season = 45" (includes 2.1 from early Nov-9)
*11 inches above average (1981-2010)

Temperatures
The data trend leads me to believe that there will be enough warm spells to compensate for the majority of cold air events within each cycle leading to Above Average temperatures for the winter. The numbers tell me 1 to 3 degrees above average each cycle. Don't get me wrong, there will be some cold stretches this winter, there is no doubt about it, but with warm-ups scattered about may make the overall winter not seem so harsh temperature wise.

----

On Going Analysis and LRC Based Products
I am determined and focused on providing a different way of seeing the cycle. I have plans that include time-lapse and graphical grids. Besides that, I will keep up to date the forecast trends, calendar, and activity in the AccuWeather LRC Forum. The AccuWeather LRC Forum is a great place to exchange ideas and to continue learning the theory. I recommend it. The 2011-12 Forecast Trends are located below and are permanently located on the lower right hand side of the blog. The 2011-12 LRC Calendar can be found here and in the LRC Analysis Tools section on the upper right hand side of the blog. The trends are based on a 48 day cycle duration. The duration may be retracted or extended later on in the year as the cycle breathes if required to keep continuity.

(500mb Forecast Trend For Green Bay)


(Maximum Temperature Forecast Trend For Oshkosh)


If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading!

Some Thoughts On The New, Still Evolving, 2011-12 LRC

*Update Nov-11, 2011

It's getting down to crunch time! The professionals that base their winter forecasts on the LRC are building the hype for their respective release within the next week! Exciting times. As for what I am seeing, well, it is a 45 ish cycle duration currently. The other morning I found a comparison that was 46. I am leaning toward a mid to high forty right now rather than a 50+ I saw a week ago. This really is a fun part of the LRC, I will admit. Similar to a treasure hunt!

(Oct-8, 2011)

(Nov-22, 2011 Forecast)

---- Original Post Nov-7, 2011

And it keeps evolving. Today I like Sep-30 and Nov-20. 52 days. Notice the GFS Nov-20 forecast map is different from yesterday? I know Tim enjoys this fantasy land stuff! ;)

(Sep-30, 2011)

(Nov-20, 2011 Forecast)

---- Original Post Nov-6, 2011

Hints of the cycle length are coming in. The 500mb map comparison below is evidence. Potentially 48-ish days. Admittedly this comparison puts a lot faith into the GFS long range. Clicking on the maps will bring you to their respective websites.

(Oct-4, 2011)

(Nov-20, 2011 Forecast)

---- Original Post Oct-30, 2011

I am getting excited, like a kid in a candy store, about the first few weeks of November as they will complete our analysis for the first cycle of the 2011-12 LRC.

As far as Oshkosh is concerned, today's (Oct-30) precipitation could certainly be a nice snowfall in December. However, up until now we haven't had any 'storms' to reference that would provide anything over 4 inches of snowfall in a 24 hour period. The way I see it breaking down for Oshkosh thus far in the cycle is, the second half of the first half of the cycle could be riddled with clippers which will hopefully keep the relatively warm "snow melting air" out of the area. If we get clipper after clipper it could carve out a great time period of LES in the Lake Superior snow belts. Also, there were two potent systems that traveled to our north in late September and middle October, perhaps they could be snow makers as the jet dips south come late November through January as well. Unfortunately the ridge that built up during the time between the two storms could bring some warm air rushing into the area which could spell doom for snow lovers... we'll see! These are my preliminary thoughts on the currently evolving 2011-12 LRC. I plan to attempt a winter forecast for Oshkosh during the Thanksgiving time frame.

The recent snow out East was certainly epic and I have confidence that it will recur multiple times until next summer. Signs point to an extremely active year in the NE. I would expect this storm to move slightly south and east each time it recurs. We'll see. To view a US radar loop of the recent Nor'Easter click the link below.

http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/z20111030.html

If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. The 2011-12 LRC calendar can be found here and is also accessible from the LRC Analysis Tools section in the upper right portion of the blog. Thanks for reading!

Lezak's Recurring Cycle 1988-89

An Accuweather.com Weather Forum member messaged me recently asking about my confindence in the LRC and that he had heard/read somewhere that the LRC didn't work in 1988-89 to make a long range forecast. In other words, someone decided the LRC didn't exist in the years of 1988-89. I thought that to be a profoundly inaccurate statement and I felt obligated to analyze the 1988-89 LRC to prove it did indeed exist.

To prove the LRC in 1988-89 I began by gathering 500mb geopotential heights for Green Bay, WI for the months of Aug-88 through Jul-89. I use the University of Wyoming Department of Atmospheric Science website for finding the data and I use my extraction tool to manage the data. I then graph the data looking for trends. Once I find a trend I seek the Daily Archived Weather Maps from the NOAA Central Library U.S. Daily Weather Maps Project website. Looking at the maps I analyze the 500mb plots for consistency and magically the LRC appears.

(Green Bay, WI 500mb Geopotential Heights - Aug-88 through Jul-89)

(Oshkosh, WI Max Temp Deviation From Avg - Aug-88 through Jul-89)

Two sets of specific trends that I saw from the above graphs were instances of a 'dramatic' saw tooth type pattern. A 'signature' setup that was both visible in the 500mb trends and surface temperature trends. I labeled the two pattern comparisons ORG and GRN. Seems like the dominate feature in my neck of the woods was a recurring strong ridge in the ORG pattern and a recurring strong trough in the GRN pattern.

The days in comparison for the ORG pattern are Oct 31, Dec 9, Jan 19, Mar 1, and Apr 8.

(Green Bay, WI 500mb Geopotential Height Map Comparison - ORG)

(Green Bay, WI 500mb Geopotential Height Graphical Comparison - ORG)

(Oshkosh, WI Max Temp Deviation From Avg Graphical Comparison - ORG)

--

The days in comparison for the GRN pattern are Nov 26, Jan 7, Feb 20, and Apr 3

(Green Bay, WI 500mb Geopotential Height Map Comparison - GRN)

(Green Bay, WI 500mb Geopotential Height Graphical Comparison - GRN)

(Oshkosh, WI Deviation From Max Temp Graphical Comparison - GRN)

----

Following the patterns through time in the graphs and archived daily maps from the linked dates above it sure seems to me that there were cycling weather patterns. What do you think? For the entire data set for this analysis click here, it is in Microsoft Excel format. The DjVu Viewer is needed to view the maps and a download can be found on the NOAA Central Library U.S. Daily Weather Maps Project website. If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading!