Using the Bering Sea Rule to Predict Severe Weather Events and Verifying the Prediction with the Recurring Rossby Wave Train

The images in the Tweet below show the Bering Sea Rule correlation to the CONUS. Based on our research (page 46), Shemya, AK connects to Columbia, MO. The premise is that observed weather in the Bering Sea region shows up in the CONUS 17-21 days later. Click on the Tweet below to see the larger images. (More predictive data related to BSR here)

Potential severe weather events ~May14 & ~May20 based on #BSR? What do you think @TriStatesWx and @jnelsonweather? pic.twitter.com/BWI50VQhy9

— Josh Herman (@OSNW3) May 3, 2015

JD suggests deep south and wants a harmonic relationship based on the Recurring Rossby Wave Train.

The PNA has been cycling ~32 days. (click on PNA) As far as the CONUS 500s, strong correlation exists in these windows as well. (click on REGIONAL+). Seems that fancy LRC length has been showing up in the REGIONAL+ the past 10 days too. Harmonics for everyone.

Getting to the point.

~May 20 going back ~32 days...
150416_rpts
150417_rpts
150418_rpts
150419_rpts

~May 20 going back ~LRC days...
150331_rpts
150401_rpts
150402_rpts
150403_rpts

~May 20 going back ~64 (nothing special)
150318_rpts
150319_rpts

The current frequency and harmonic certainly show a possibility. I know JN has been using late Oct as an analog for his version of the LRC lately. If you go back to Nov 16, it could connect to ~May 20, if you like averaging 185 days to find the wheelhouse prophecy. On a side note, going further into the future with the GFS, #chasecation2015 might get sucked into a vortex.

@islivingston @TriStatesWx @jnelsonweather let the hilarity ensue. See yellow box. #BSR #GFS :) pic.twitter.com/z0dtuAEBlX

— Josh Herman (@OSNW3) May 3, 2015

If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Thanks for reading!

High Correlation in the Mid 30 Day Frequency

I am currently recording near 0.8 correlation in the mid 30 day frequency in Region 7. I plotted the 500s for two stations (KILX and KILN) in what I label Region 7 to show the pattern consistency. Region 7 consists of stations in the Ohio Valley (Central). This region has all stations reporting within the daily top 10 frequencies.





I would suspect that if someone analyzed CONUS 500 maps during this time frame there would be regions that do not match up within this frequency. Analysis suggests that a transient cycle frequency with multiple phasing cycles is taking place. Something similar to a standing wave. Not an all encompassing macro cycle that Lezak suggests. See the heat-map table for more.

Lezak tweeted me that his cycle range has been 43-50 days since 10/1. The chart below shows this range correlating well near the end of November and early December. The wheelhouse time when Lezak discovers his cycle length each year, then back dates it to when it "began" in October. The past few months his range of days hasn't been performing well.



Calculating the median and average of the top-10 daily frequencies yield results very close to what Lezak states as his cycle length range. Most recently the range has been 42-49 days. The chart below shows the range of the median and average since 8/1/14.



If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Click on the images for a larger view. Thanks for reading!

A Random ERSL Map Verification Analysis

I am not sure how I will conduct auto verification for these ESRL map type projections. A random case below.

-Surface Temperature Anomaly
-Observed 20150308-20150312


-Surface Temperature Anomaly Forecast
-Initialized 20150215, 21-25 Day Forecast 20150308-20150312


This might look OK, but it is just one instance. I am archiving all of the past projections here. On a side note, I am currently working on auto verification for the Trends. It's a long way off yet, but it is in the works. All of this is an ongoing work in progress. If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Thanks for reading!