Fundamental Frequency

A changing of the guard? Notice the temporal elongation of frequency, ~30 transitions to ~35 and ~60 transitions to ~70. A phasing of the wave is taking place with a moderate ~40 now showing up.



This paints an anomalously warm ECONUS the next few weeks, with a late July, early Aug reprieve.



My calcs are showing an upper 40s for a Lezak/Heady style cycle length. A forecast value going above 50 as we head through September. I wonder what these guys will come up with through Summer and into Fall. Both of their blogs are listed in the Blog Roll on the right.



If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Click on images for larger views. Thanks for reading!

The Recurring Rossby Wave Train and Bering Sea Rule Working Together

Are the RRWT and BSR techniques on to something? The time frame in question is the end of July and the beginning of August.

Bering Sea Rule Technique


Recurring Rossby Wave Train Technique


If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Click on images for larger views. Thanks for reading!

Random Verification

I did a quick verification on my forecast maps that use the ESRL mapping. I picked a random projection range. 6/29-7/3. See the observed surface temp in attached image. Projection images listed below. (more here).



us-t2125-20150608-20150629-20150703
us-t1620-20150613-20150629-20150703
us-t1115-20150618-20150629-20150703
us-t0610-20150623-20150629-20150703

Seems my short-term forecasts 6-15 days were off a bit in this instance. The 16-25 days did OK. If you need help decoding the file name list above, see this link.

If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Click on images for larger views. Thanks for reading! #workinprogress