ISO and Rossby; Harmony 101

An auto-discovery "cycle" duration. Obtainable by finding the dominant ISO component. On a daily basis I am doing just that. A while back I began following a specific feature and tracking it back through the long-term recurring Rossby.

Observations


Short-term ISO on Apr-13


Midwest 500mb Correlations Apr 1-30


What are these charts showing? The correlation of the 500mb flow over the Midwest. Y axis is correlation coefficient, X axis is days. I correlate each station on a daily basis looped 10-80 days backward in time to find the most positive correlation. The change is in days of the ISO translated to the mid latitude Rossby wave. Analyzing the oscillations we can then apply standing wave harmonics to find the recurring weather patterns.

Below is a KMCI MaxT reanalysis based on ISO (r=0.716) and LRC (r=0.017). Out with the old and in with the new?



If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Thanks for reading! More to come.

Current Pattern and Prior Cycle Engagements

Give or take a day, this is where the current pattern engaged within each "cycle" aka the long-term ISO component, ~57 days.

20131008


20131203


20140130


20140329


Please attempt a stare & compare method analysis by moving the maps back and forth (click image). Currently my favorite way to get GFS guidance is via Tropical Tidbits. If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Thanks for reading!

A Short Discussion - Second Half of April Temperature Trend

The below tweet prompted a response from @Blizzardof96 on the AccuWx Forums. Always an insightful read from him.

A regional #midwest warm-up will come - http://t.co/ZbmCC8aJmU #organicforecasting #BSR @TriStatesWx @theblockking pic.twitter.com/LfhjcT7z4e

— Josh Herman (@OSNW3) March 30, 2014

His response mused me into responding. My response is below.

----

In regard with the long-term ISO, late April should be watched for another cold intrusion. However, with the jet transitioning northward, I am not against departures coming in less dramatic. Take a similar jet position, in a similar transition (to winter, instead of summer), the first half of November the midwest was riddled with short lived ridges.











It is the short-term ISO that will pick up on this soon, shall the Rossby recur in such a way.

----

If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Thanks for reading!