This blog post will act as a "help" page for the 2014-15 ensemble member descrptions.
Framework: Use current NOAA/ESRL Radiosonde Database to analyze large-scale upper atmosphere patterns and relate the tropical Intraseasonal oscillation to Mid-Latitude recurring weather patterns.
Goal: Long Range forecasting skill of surface weather trends.
Last year I integrated a three member ensemble seeking better resolution to the cycling weather pattern. The 2013-14 method was based on specific ideas of the LRC/Heady Pattern. Since that time I have discovered that the LRC/Heady Pattern are just names for a specific harmonic in the overall Rossby standing wave. Utilizing this new information I have revised the ensemble members for this year.
Member 1 (M1) scales the 10-30 and 60-90 day daily 500mb correlation to the 30-60 day Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO).
Member 2 (M2) scales the 10-30 day daily 500mb correlation to the 30-90 day tropical Intraseasonal oscillation (ISO).
Member 3 (M3) does not utilize MJO/ISO scaling. This is a 1 to 1 connection of the mid-latitude Rossby standing wave 10-90 daily 500mb correlation.
Doing this has disconnected my data from the LRC/Heady Pattern thought process. The 2014-15 data is ready for testing/review and can be found here.
Often times this blog is neglected. Many of my ramblings can be found in the AccuWeather ISO/Rossby/BSR/TR threads. Please check it out, go here for the 2014-15 version. If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Thanks for reading!
Oct 4, 2014
Sep 27, 2014
Forecasts Begin Oct 2, 2014
A great day in OSNW3 history. LOL. I have unplugged the 2013-14 WxClimate model from automation. 2014-15 begins peer review on Oct 2, 2014. Along with the long range forecasts, an upgraded suite of products will include new analysis tools and daily verification measures.
Framework: Use current NOAA/ESRL Radiosonde Database to analyze large-scale upper atmosphere patterns and relate the Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillation to Mid-Latitude recurring weather patterns.
Goal: Long Range forecasting skill of surface weather trends.
Framework: Use current NOAA/ESRL Radiosonde Database to analyze large-scale upper atmosphere patterns and relate the Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillation to Mid-Latitude recurring weather patterns.
Goal: Long Range forecasting skill of surface weather trends.
Aug 31, 2014
Current Recurring Rossby Components and a 2014-15 LRC Duration Hint
Let's begin with last years dominant components. (01AUG13-31JUL14)
75-79
49-51
40-42
26-26
14-15
Requirements are such that the correlation equals 0.4 or greater for any day throughout the year. The chart below shows how using the dominant harmonic may prove to be solid guidance as the short-term, mid-term, and long-term will all have their days in the sun so to speak. With a broad brush, when one component is out of frequency the other components are not. Difficult to imagine that ~57 didn't show up at all.
Below is the average of each component in 2013-14. 10-20, 30-60, and 60-90 days.
We caught onto the LRC duration last year around this time. What about this coming season? 17-18 days are tops this morning (31AUG14). 74-76 days are right behind. However, through August, 58-60 days has been the most dominant. Likely to swerve in the coming weeks.
With the long-term likely to cycle negative soon, the short/mid-term should recover and produce new patterns for the upcoming season. Discussing this with some others, I agree we can use the 74-76 day to find the LRC duration and confirm with the short-term using standing wave harmonics. Some suggest taking the current short-term from the current long-term for this years LRC duration. Give or take a day of course.
If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. New framework, new website, new content will be live sometime around 01OCT14. Thanks for reading!
75-79
49-51
40-42
26-26
14-15
Requirements are such that the correlation equals 0.4 or greater for any day throughout the year. The chart below shows how using the dominant harmonic may prove to be solid guidance as the short-term, mid-term, and long-term will all have their days in the sun so to speak. With a broad brush, when one component is out of frequency the other components are not. Difficult to imagine that ~57 didn't show up at all.
Below is the average of each component in 2013-14. 10-20, 30-60, and 60-90 days.
We caught onto the LRC duration last year around this time. What about this coming season? 17-18 days are tops this morning (31AUG14). 74-76 days are right behind. However, through August, 58-60 days has been the most dominant. Likely to swerve in the coming weeks.
With the long-term likely to cycle negative soon, the short/mid-term should recover and produce new patterns for the upcoming season. Discussing this with some others, I agree we can use the 74-76 day to find the LRC duration and confirm with the short-term using standing wave harmonics. Some suggest taking the current short-term from the current long-term for this years LRC duration. Give or take a day of course.
If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. New framework, new website, new content will be live sometime around 01OCT14. Thanks for reading!
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