Recurring Rossby Regional Analysis

Is one region dictating? Region 3 feedback suggests close proximity to the recurring long-term longwave.



Region 3 the quietest of all nine. ECONUS becoming noisy. Region 6 hanging onto the high frequency short-term recurring wave. (ANALYSIS)

If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Thanks for reading!

Interpreting the BSRi

A visual of the Bering Sea Rule Index. More info can be found here.



Going deeper. In Joseph Renken's 24OCT14 LR Disco he states "matches a storm threat for Central Missouri on the 12th of November" via the Typhoon Rule (based off a long range model I assume) AND then states "there will be storms during November 14th and 16th" via the BSR (based off a short range model I assume). Same or different energy? Anyway, the solutions presented below have begun to show up in the BSRi (image at bottom), and match what was discussed in JD's latest.





Plugging the ISO/RR. A ~34 day dominant harmonic gives us the solution below, connecting mid November dates bolded above.



KCOU could be looking at their first hard freeze of the season.



I think the BSRi shows this well (image below). A large negative change in SLP that basically holds there with minimal slow positive change for a few days following the referenced time frame.



Original content posted on the ISO/Rossby/BSR/TR 2014-2015 AccuWx Forum. If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Thanks for reading!

Halloween 2014 - Based On BSR/ISO/RR Connection

Below is an image of the 12Z GFS 72HR solution for the Western Pacific.


Source: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/
Observed: pac00.500fcst.12.2014101113.gif

Below is an image of the ~32 day dominant ISO/RR frequency in Region 6


Source: http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/

Utilizing the Bering Sea Rule ~20 day connection to the CONUS, 10/11 becomes 10/31. Utilizing the Intraseasonal Oscillation and Recurring Rossby ~32 day connection mentioned above, 10/31 becomes 9/29. The image below can be used as a starting point for an analog weather pattern that may take place +/- several days centered on 10/31/14 in North America.


Source: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/

The red square in the top image is Shemya, AK. We often correlate that station to Springfield, MO. Interesting solutions. Always looking, always learning. If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Thanks for reading!