High Correlation in the Mid 30 Day Frequency

I am currently recording near 0.8 correlation in the mid 30 day frequency in Region 7. I plotted the 500s for two stations (KILX and KILN) in what I label Region 7 to show the pattern consistency. Region 7 consists of stations in the Ohio Valley (Central). This region has all stations reporting within the daily top 10 frequencies.





I would suspect that if someone analyzed CONUS 500 maps during this time frame there would be regions that do not match up within this frequency. Analysis suggests that a transient cycle frequency with multiple phasing cycles is taking place. Something similar to a standing wave. Not an all encompassing macro cycle that Lezak suggests. See the heat-map table for more.

Lezak tweeted me that his cycle range has been 43-50 days since 10/1. The chart below shows this range correlating well near the end of November and early December. The wheelhouse time when Lezak discovers his cycle length each year, then back dates it to when it "began" in October. The past few months his range of days hasn't been performing well.



Calculating the median and average of the top-10 daily frequencies yield results very close to what Lezak states as his cycle length range. Most recently the range has been 42-49 days. The chart below shows the range of the median and average since 8/1/14.



If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Click on the images for a larger view. Thanks for reading!

A Random ERSL Map Verification Analysis

I am not sure how I will conduct auto verification for these ESRL map type projections. A random case below.

-Surface Temperature Anomaly
-Observed 20150308-20150312


-Surface Temperature Anomaly Forecast
-Initialized 20150215, 21-25 Day Forecast 20150308-20150312


This might look OK, but it is just one instance. I am archiving all of the past projections here. On a side note, I am currently working on auto verification for the Trends. It's a long way off yet, but it is in the works. All of this is an ongoing work in progress. If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Thanks for reading!

A Transient Cycle Length with Multiple Phasing Cycles

So where was I? Ah yes, I dropped the high amplitude and frequency states (ISO short-term component, 10-20 days) from the CONUS output and plotted the 30-90 day correlations exclusively. More

The map below shows the RAOB stations that I collect data from. I don't collect Canada or Mexico and it seems I randomly do not collect in the deep south US. I blame it on laziness. I am super lazy.



My thoughts are not well organized or educated. They are likely difficult to follow. I will attempt to explain them in short detail. The image below shows which region the highest correlations stem from. The range is 0-1. The higher the value, the more high correlations stem from that region. Example; the daily analysis for 2/21 shows region 5 has 9% of it's stations reporting a top 10 value. Region 8 60% and region 9 67% of it's stations in the top 10. This correlation could be considered "east based", where this region shows the most correlation.



These correlations are charted in a heat-map like table form. The image below shows the first 21 days of February. The left most table is the top 10 cycle lengths, listed from left to right, 1 through 10. The table directly to the right is the corresponding correlation values. The 3 tables to the right are mode, median, and average of cycle lengths for the previous 30 days, since December 1st, and since August 1st. The entire table can be found here.



A quick analysis of the heat-maps suggest a transient cycle length with multiple phasing cycles taking place. Similar to a standing wave. If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Thanks for reading!

Framework: Use current NOAA/ESRL Radiosonde Database to analyze large-scale upper atmosphere patterns in standing wave notation. Described specifically to harmonics, reflecting the temporal/transient behavior of the frequency wavelengths in correlation and relating Intraseasonal Oscillation to Mid-Latitude recurring weather patterns.

Goal: Forecasting skill of upper-air and surface weather trends.