Intangible Arguments Within The 2012-13 Cycle

Hurricane Sandy.

It is unlikely that the moisture from Sandy will be a recurring feature in this years cycle. It is a tropical entity and while another ULL may form again in other cycles, the genesis placement, path, and strength will most certainly differ as the Jet steadily marches south.

But first. As I understand, the cycle breathes, the duration of the cycle oscillates inside a 1-2 day window on either side. My last map to map correlation had a duration of around 53 days. Reanalyzing, now that the end date (Oct-23) is real and not a forecast model, I now see something just a little different. 51 days.

(Sep-5, 2012)


(Oct-25, 2012)


The map comparison above and the image combining them below show Low's in similar position. More info on the ULL off of Florida from early September click here. And, obviously Hurricane #Sandy.

(Sep-5 and Oct-25)


If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading!

The 2012-13 Cycle - From The OSNW3 Perspective

Finding the "transition" cycle was not easy. It took me over two years to even grasp the thought. The late summer and early fall of 2012 has been a break through season. I have to give credit to Doug Heady and Scott Metsker for assisting me in finding it. It truly does exist. The old 3/4-ish harmonic, below. (32 days)

(Sep-14)


(Oct-15)


Take a moment to follow this pattern back/forth through time (click on the images they will open a new tab). It can be a good lesson on how seasonal "twists" evolve. While this is the overly mentioned and often misinterpreted "stare and compare" method of viewing the correlations, to me it is still the preferred method. Unmolested data.

With hints from other theorists, I have been able to personally discover that it is possible to find the new cycle one to two months prior to the core theory, Gary Lezak, rule of October and November. While some will argue, I maintain my stance and make the effort in providing visual proof. Take the maps below for an example (50-ish days)...

(Aug-13)


(Oct-1)


Click on the images (they will open a new tab) and move the maps forward in time. A pattern exists six consecutive days until a seasonal twist interrupts the flow in the August pattern. After all, it was August and the waning anti-cyclone of summer was prevalent. Now, take the comparison below (53-ish days), here we are again seeing the same patterns of late summer and early autumn.

(Sep-1, 2012)


(Oct-23, 2012)


I am 99.9% confident that we have met the patterns that will be the cycle of 2012-13. Allowing the patterns to evolve with the season (patience) will harbor a definite and accurate long range forecast probability.

If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading!

Thoughts On Upcoming Patterns

Could this be a sign of new patterns in a new cycle? A 50-51 cycle duration? I find analyzing 500mb maps is a fun pastime. The old 'stare and compare' method.

Aug-18 correlates to the GFS Oct-6
Aug-25 correlates to the GFS Oct-14



I've been following a couple cycles as of late. The 2011-12 46-ish day cycle has had a few last gasps and I picked up on a 40 ish day cycle that quickly shrunk down to 30 ish day cycle (see Aug-18 and Sep-21 and go backwards for an example) that I am losing confidence in, but now...

Sep-7 correlates to the GFS Oct-6, it grows a day or two...
Sep-12 correlates to the GFS Oct-15



----
(first posted on Sep-24, 2012)

Cycle length is still shrinking. New energy is being added to the patterns.

(Aug-30)


(GFS Oct-3: 204hr Forecast Sep-24)


I love me some map to map comparisons. Knowing the LR models are usually a day or two early, put this comparison in motion and it would seem the GFS has the right idea with a near 40 day cycle length.

----
(first posted on Sep-10, 2012)

Back to back to back troughs forecast (0-168hr) in the BS/GOA. Correlates well w/ first half of August E CONUS troughs and the 2011-12 #LRC.

— Josh Herman (@OSNW3) September 7, 2012

There has been activity in the Bearing Sea and Gulf Of Alaska lately that will soon resemble a unique pattern of this years LRC.

(Pacific 500 Analysis: Aug-29/Sep-9)


This particular pattern started to take form during the middle of September last year and then solidified itself a spot in the 2011-12 cycle the first half of November. Recurring the second half of December, first half of February, second half of March, first half of May, second half of June, first half of August, and now likely to recur one more time the second half of this September. (Follow this pattern through the seasons by utilizing the 2011-12 LRC Calender A linked date will bring up the 500 map for that day)

Hmmm... #LRC March 1st vs September 4th via.me/-4r2u4wk via.me/-4r2u8cw
— Joe Renken (@TriStatesWx) September 4, 2012

The 2011-12 cycle patterns are transitioning. Since middle August the duration of the cycle has seemed to slowly shrink. In other words the patterns are cycling through at a quicker pace and likely morphing as "new energy" is introduced with our strengthening jet stream. For example, the first half of August is showing a strong resemblance to the GFS 500 forecast beginning September 13. 40-ish day duration. Back to back to back eastern half of CONUS/CANADA troughs.

(Aug-4, 2012)


(GFS Sep-10: 075hr Forecast Sep-13)


It would seem there should be three or four consecutive troughs entering the eastern half of CONUS/CANADA during the second half of September which is a pattern that has been recurring since last November. Soon after this has taken place, confidence is high that 2012-12 cycle patterns will begin to reveal themselves with a more eye popping appeal. Game on?

If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading!