Too Early To Make Predictions For Spring Storm Outbreaks?

The other day on the AccuWx Forums LRC Thread, Apo Agathos, questioned if it was too early to make predictions for spring storm outbreaks? It has become painfully obvious that many weather enthusiasts are once again very close to giving up on winter and setting their sites towards chasing thunderstorms.

Recently I completed the work to get the daily maximum temperatures stuffed into Google Motion Charts. This output allowed me to analyze daily Midwest temperature changes as an entity. With the 'spring storm' question on my mind I was on the lookout for a drastic change from warm to cool which can potentially heighten the possibility.

The first notable frontal passage is visible in early March.



The second comes during the same pattern the next cycle in late April.



Click on the images to navigate to the Motion Chart. Choose the correct month from the menu on the right. Click the play button and watch the pretty colors of the temperature flux in the Midwest. The chart is fully controllable allowing the user to change the chart type, select locations, scroll through time, etc. The forecast numbers are updated daily and are grouped by month.

When using the theory to project weather conditions months in advance it is necessary to give or take a day for the given time frame. Currently the forecast data is derived using a 52 day cycle length. The 500mb plots for this pattern in previous cycles are below. A link to the surface plot can be obtained by clicking on the 500mb plot image.

Nov 18, 2012


Jan 10, 2013


If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the theory or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading!

A Quick Rant - When Use Of The Theory Fails

Majority of people who watch the cycling weather patterns do not often exploit them when the use of them fails. I am in a position of experimentation and examination. Personally I want to see it both succeed and fail. The theory is not linear and that simple fact is blatantly obvious beginning day two of the quest to keep up.

When using the theory to project surface observations a scenario for a consistent fail is in the current pattern. Within the visually chaotic mess that this pattern holds, the previous cycle threw the 'trending' aspect for a 180° flip-flop loop. A few factors that give claim to "it all being part of the cycle" can be used for this one; seasonal twist, every other cycle, etc.

(Oct 2-7; Nov 24-29; Jan 16-21)

(click on the image for a much larger view)

Fantastic. Yes, I can see the pattern. Yes, I know surface variables are difficult to trend due to friction this close to the earth. But, like the many in the Pacific Northwest, even in the Midwest the middle of the atmosphere is blowing it for any form of "sensible" weather recognition with this pattern.



But wait! If one has been following the cycles for a few years it is likely they have grasped the many concepts of the patterns and how they might act from season to season, or cycle to cycle. Am I safe to conclude that next cycle, in Oshkosh, the below average trend will not come to fruition and it is highly likely we will experience what we did to begin December? Temperatures much above average because of the potential "every other cycle" rule?! We will see. :)



If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the theory or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading!

December Snow Forecast Results & New Locations Added to the Trends

Recently I added three new locations to the Trend output. (thanks for the inquiries gentlemen, you know who you are)

Dayton, OH
Davenport, IA
Seattle, WA

These locations have now been added to the snow forecast outputs as well. Also, with the close of December I've put together the results of the December snow forecast. They can be accessed by clicking on the "Results" link next to the "December" map link on the bottom right side of the maps webpage linked below.



The result columns can be sorted by clicking on the table headers. The Error slider will list the stations based on the criteria selected.

For anyone who checks the results out, I would be very interested in your thoughts in regards to accuracy, presentation, etc. For example, is six inches too much of a difference between forecast and actual to give the forecast a passing grade? How many Days With Snow from actual would be considered a fail? Is there another category of analysis I should be presenting? This use of the theory is a bunch of crock and should be halted at once.

All feedback/ideas are welcome.

Something to note with precipitation forecasts for Jan and Feb. Something I call the 'cycle ratio' of the algorithm updates Jan-11. Consider it a new initialization of the modeled precip for future cycles. What this actually means is that the numbers that are forecast now will likely change on Jan-11. The next 'cycle ratio' update occurs Mar-6.