Jan 30, 2014

OSNW3 Trend Comparison to the Jeremy Nelson LRC Based Long Range Forecast

I wanted to analyze the OSNW3 long range numbers for February in conjunction to Jeremy Nelson's forecast for southeastern WI. Jeremy is a meteorologist at WISN12 in Milwaukee who uses LRC techniques to long range forecast. His "February forecast and beyond" can be found at this link.

I will highlight some pieces of the forecast.

1. "The pattern looks to stay busy with a chance of snow around February 4-5 and 7-8 [...] some of the storm systems will have more moisture to work with" - February 1-7 Section (Black)

2. "Following each snow chance a quick hit of cold air will sweep across southeastern Wisconsin. More below zero lows are likely this month. Temperatures should moderate and possibly move above average late in week two of February [...] The average/above average temperatures should last 1-3 days" - February 8-15 Section (Orange)

3. "The middle of the month should see the return of one of the biggest precipitation producers for southeast Wisconsin [...] As this feature returns around February 14-17 another storm system is possible impacting our area" - February 16-28 Section (Blue)

4. "Closing out the month a moderation in temperatures is possible around February 20-22 before another surge of cold air around Feb 23-25. A couple chances for snow showers also possible the final week of February" - February 16-28 Section (Red)

The image below is a snap shot of the Milwaukee, WI trend from the OSNW3|WxClimate website for February. I highlighted the points mentioned above in the image. For Jeremy's entire forecast be sure to click the blog link above. Click here for more information on the image below, which will provide an interactive experience for the Brewer's home opener Jeremy mentions in his forecast as well.

If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Thanks for reading!

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