Forecast Trends - Version 2

I decided to venture backward in time to August to see if I could spot the cycles morphing into this years cycle. After I was able to I then decided to create another version of the 2011-12 LRC blend 500mb Forecast Trend and the Oshkosh Max Temp Forecast Trend. This separate version incorporates this years genesis cycle, same as this product did last year (500/Temp). The genesis cycle is something I've mentioned before. When labeling the cycles everyone has their own perspective. I believe it is the time of year when the previous and new cycles are morphing, late summer early autumn. I began this year w/o this cycle being used in the forecast but now I feel like playing around with it again. The more data to compare the better... maybe?

20110813
20110929 (48 days)
20111116 (49 days)

500mb Forecast Trend For Green Bay - V2
This version of the 500mb forecast trend begins comparing data from Aug-13 unlike the original trend which begins from Sep-29. The graph below is a forecast trend for 500mb heights in Green Bay, WI incorporating the genesis cycle of this years LRC. The trend is an average of 500mb actuals based on the cycle duration of the LRC. This graph also compares the LRC blend to forecast 500mb heights of the GFS 7-14 day computer model.



Max Temperature Forecast Trend For Oshkosh - V2
This version of the maximum temperature forecast trend begins comparing data from Aug-13 unlike the original trend which begins from Sep-29. The graph below is a forecast trend for maximum temperature in Oshkosh, WI incorporating the genesis cycle of this years LRC. The trend is an average of maximum temperature actuals based on the cycle duration of the LRC.



From the looks of the the graphs above, they may provide less of an error from actual with the added cycle to the LRC blend. ??? More analysis is needed. Until then the original trends starting on Sep-29 will continue to be the featured forecast trends on the bottom right hand side of the blog. If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading!

2011-12 Oshkosh Winter Forecast Based On The LRC

I first heard about Lezak's Recurring Cycle theory in early October of 2010 from WISN12's Jeremy Nelson. My initial thoughts were that it was too good to be true. Then it happened, I was convinced after one in-depth analysis that it indeed existed. I will admit it didn't take long for me to buy in and afterwards I wondered why I hadn't heard about it before. A little over a year later and an extreme amount of hours dedicated to research and analysis, following the theory has grown into a passion. To this day I endorse the theory to my fullest capacity.

Caught up in all the hype and excitement of learning more about the LRC last winter I attempted a backyard snowfall forecast. Little did I realize that this endeavor would be the proverbial tip of the iceberg. Following the LRC for the past year has led me down a path of constant learning about the upper atmosphere and how it affects the weather on the surface. The benefits of following the theory and thus knowing the likely weather and climate scenarios weeks and months ahead of time are boundless.

In 2011 the OSNW3 backyard snowfall forecast has evolved into a Oshkosh Winter Forecast pin pointing specific weather events and surface weather trends for the area. An exciting project only truly conceivable because of the LRC.

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Again, What Is The LRC?
The ’LRC’ which stands for Lezak’s Recurring Cycle is a weather pattern theory based on the following:

* A unique weather pattern sets up every year between October and November
* The weather pattern cycles, repeats, and continues through winter, spring and into summer.
* Long term long-wave troughs and ridges become established and also repeat at regular times within the cycle. These dominant repeating features are a clue to where storm systems will reach peak strength, and where they will be their weakest.
* The LRC isn’t just one long-wave trough, storm system, or ridge. It is a sequence of troughs and ridges that are cycling across the Northern Hemisphere.

To put this in very simple terms, the weather pattern that occurs in October and November repeats thru the winter, spring, and into summer. The cycle length will vary each year.

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The Forecast
No reason to reiterate any more words of Jeremy Nelson of WISN12 or Gary Lezak of LRC Weather. With the cycle duration in clear sites, the cycling weather patterns will now do what they do. Please visit Jeremy's and Gary's winter forecast, linked below, as they dissect the long term long wave troughs and ridges that will be our weather until summer!

Weather Watch 12
LRC Weather

To create the 2011-12 Oshkosh winter forecast I am leaning on all of my rookie year experiences following the LRC. The main focus being the affect the atmospheric flow 18,000 feet above the earth has on the OSNW3 recorded surface data throughout the seasons and each cycle of the LRC. The predictions below are based on a 46-48 day cycle duration. Shrinking and expanding of the duration will take place as the seasons move along.

Disclaimer: It is understood that the weather can change instantly and despite my best attempts to understand the weather patterns my weather predictions might be incorrect.

Notable Weather Events
Cycle 1 (Nov-25 thru Jan-2)
-Early Dec Cold
-Late Dec Snowstorm/Cold
-New Year Warm-up
Cycle 2 (Jan-3 thru Feb-19)
-Mid Jan Warm-up
-Late Jan/Early Feb Cold
-Mid Feb Snowstorm/Cold
-Mid Feb Warm-up
Cycle 3 (Feb-20 thru Apr-7)
-Early Mar Warm-up
-Late Mar/Early Apr Snowstorm/Cold
-Early Apr Warm-up (spring clean-up)
Cycle 4 (Apr-8 thru May-25)
-Early May Flakes (chilly start to golf leagues)

Events are open to deeper daily analysis queries if desired. This leads into the main focus of any winter forecast. Snowfall!

Days with Measurable Snow
C1 = 13 (Nov-25 thru Jan-2)
C2 = 12 (Jan-3 thru Feb-19)
C3 = 4 (Feb-20 thru Apr-7)
C4 = 2 (Apr-8 thru May-25)
Season = 31 (including the Nov-9 snowfall)
*9 days above average (1981-2010)

Total Snow Accumulation
C1 = 16" (Nov-25 thru Jan-2)
C2 = 17" (Jan-3 thru Feb-19)
C3 = 9" (Feb-20 thru Apr-7)
C4 = 1" (Apr-8 thru May-25)
Season = 45" (includes 2.1 from early Nov-9)
*11 inches above average (1981-2010)

Temperatures
The data trend leads me to believe that there will be enough warm spells to compensate for the majority of cold air events within each cycle leading to Above Average temperatures for the winter. The numbers tell me 1 to 3 degrees above average each cycle. Don't get me wrong, there will be some cold stretches this winter, there is no doubt about it, but with warm-ups scattered about may make the overall winter not seem so harsh temperature wise.

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On Going Analysis and LRC Based Products
I am determined and focused on providing a different way of seeing the cycle. I have plans that include time-lapse and graphical grids. Besides that, I will keep up to date the forecast trends, calendar, and activity in the AccuWeather LRC Forum. The AccuWeather LRC Forum is a great place to exchange ideas and to continue learning the theory. I recommend it. The 2011-12 Forecast Trends are located below and are permanently located on the lower right hand side of the blog. The 2011-12 LRC Calendar can be found here and in the LRC Analysis Tools section on the upper right hand side of the blog. The trends are based on a 48 day cycle duration. The duration may be retracted or extended later on in the year as the cycle breathes if required to keep continuity.

(500mb Forecast Trend For Green Bay)


(Maximum Temperature Forecast Trend For Oshkosh)


If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading!

Some Thoughts On The New, Still Evolving, 2011-12 LRC

*Update Nov-11, 2011

It's getting down to crunch time! The professionals that base their winter forecasts on the LRC are building the hype for their respective release within the next week! Exciting times. As for what I am seeing, well, it is a 45 ish cycle duration currently. The other morning I found a comparison that was 46. I am leaning toward a mid to high forty right now rather than a 50+ I saw a week ago. This really is a fun part of the LRC, I will admit. Similar to a treasure hunt!

(Oct-8, 2011)

(Nov-22, 2011 Forecast)

---- Original Post Nov-7, 2011

And it keeps evolving. Today I like Sep-30 and Nov-20. 52 days. Notice the GFS Nov-20 forecast map is different from yesterday? I know Tim enjoys this fantasy land stuff! ;)

(Sep-30, 2011)

(Nov-20, 2011 Forecast)

---- Original Post Nov-6, 2011

Hints of the cycle length are coming in. The 500mb map comparison below is evidence. Potentially 48-ish days. Admittedly this comparison puts a lot faith into the GFS long range. Clicking on the maps will bring you to their respective websites.

(Oct-4, 2011)

(Nov-20, 2011 Forecast)

---- Original Post Oct-30, 2011

I am getting excited, like a kid in a candy store, about the first few weeks of November as they will complete our analysis for the first cycle of the 2011-12 LRC.

As far as Oshkosh is concerned, today's (Oct-30) precipitation could certainly be a nice snowfall in December. However, up until now we haven't had any 'storms' to reference that would provide anything over 4 inches of snowfall in a 24 hour period. The way I see it breaking down for Oshkosh thus far in the cycle is, the second half of the first half of the cycle could be riddled with clippers which will hopefully keep the relatively warm "snow melting air" out of the area. If we get clipper after clipper it could carve out a great time period of LES in the Lake Superior snow belts. Also, there were two potent systems that traveled to our north in late September and middle October, perhaps they could be snow makers as the jet dips south come late November through January as well. Unfortunately the ridge that built up during the time between the two storms could bring some warm air rushing into the area which could spell doom for snow lovers... we'll see! These are my preliminary thoughts on the currently evolving 2011-12 LRC. I plan to attempt a winter forecast for Oshkosh during the Thanksgiving time frame.

The recent snow out East was certainly epic and I have confidence that it will recur multiple times until next summer. Signs point to an extremely active year in the NE. I would expect this storm to move slightly south and east each time it recurs. We'll see. To view a US radar loop of the recent Nor'Easter click the link below.

http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/z20111030.html

If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. The 2011-12 LRC calendar can be found here and is also accessible from the LRC Analysis Tools section in the upper right portion of the blog. Thanks for reading!

Lezak's Recurring Cycle 1988-89

An Accuweather.com Weather Forum member messaged me recently asking about my confindence in the LRC and that he had heard/read somewhere that the LRC didn't work in 1988-89 to make a long range forecast. In other words, someone decided the LRC didn't exist in the years of 1988-89. I thought that to be a profoundly inaccurate statement and I felt obligated to analyze the 1988-89 LRC to prove it did indeed exist.

To prove the LRC in 1988-89 I began by gathering 500mb geopotential heights for Green Bay, WI for the months of Aug-88 through Jul-89. I use the University of Wyoming Department of Atmospheric Science website for finding the data and I use my extraction tool to manage the data. I then graph the data looking for trends. Once I find a trend I seek the Daily Archived Weather Maps from the NOAA Central Library U.S. Daily Weather Maps Project website. Looking at the maps I analyze the 500mb plots for consistency and magically the LRC appears.

(Green Bay, WI 500mb Geopotential Heights - Aug-88 through Jul-89)

(Oshkosh, WI Max Temp Deviation From Avg - Aug-88 through Jul-89)

Two sets of specific trends that I saw from the above graphs were instances of a 'dramatic' saw tooth type pattern. A 'signature' setup that was both visible in the 500mb trends and surface temperature trends. I labeled the two pattern comparisons ORG and GRN. Seems like the dominate feature in my neck of the woods was a recurring strong ridge in the ORG pattern and a recurring strong trough in the GRN pattern.

The days in comparison for the ORG pattern are Oct 31, Dec 9, Jan 19, Mar 1, and Apr 8.

(Green Bay, WI 500mb Geopotential Height Map Comparison - ORG)

(Green Bay, WI 500mb Geopotential Height Graphical Comparison - ORG)

(Oshkosh, WI Max Temp Deviation From Avg Graphical Comparison - ORG)

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The days in comparison for the GRN pattern are Nov 26, Jan 7, Feb 20, and Apr 3

(Green Bay, WI 500mb Geopotential Height Map Comparison - GRN)

(Green Bay, WI 500mb Geopotential Height Graphical Comparison - GRN)

(Oshkosh, WI Deviation From Max Temp Graphical Comparison - GRN)

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Following the patterns through time in the graphs and archived daily maps from the linked dates above it sure seems to me that there were cycling weather patterns. What do you think? For the entire data set for this analysis click here, it is in Microsoft Excel format. The DjVu Viewer is needed to view the maps and a download can be found on the NOAA Central Library U.S. Daily Weather Maps Project website. If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading!

Examples Of Cycle Morphing?

A few Accuweather.com Weather Forum members hanging out in the LRC 2011-12 thread were critiquing a pattern for the days of Sep-5 and Oct-19 taking on a similar look and feel at the 500mb level. This similarity begged the question of why/how could this be if the pattern sets up Oct through Nov. The simple answer is, when the jet meanders southward in Autumn the cycle begins to morph into an entirely new cycle and August and September hold clues to the new patterns taking hold during October and November. The cycle change is certainly not a discrete on-off switch from previous to new. Using the 500mb plots and following this particular pattern backward in time from the dates above I noticed, while these dates match up well, major differences come into play just 48 hours prior. The reason for the similarity is, I believe, the cycle was morphing into the new cycle while retaining similarities with the previous cycle.

(500mb Plot Sep-5, 2011)

(500mb Plot Oct-19, 2011)

Going forward it is very difficult for me to consider what happened after September 5th having any bearing on what we should expect October to bring. Similarities in the new pattern with the previous pattern do not come back until Oct-27 when Sep-22 takes on a similar look. Another potential morphing example.

(500mb Plot Sep-22, 2011)

(500mb Forecast Plot Oct-27, 2011)

Sometimes the 500mb plots don't do the trick in explaining the patterns within the cycle. Graphing the 500mb soundings for a location is also a very good way to gain recognition. In the graph below it is fairly easy to see the morphing effect as the actual 500mb heights derail from the average trend of several LRC cycles but then come back on track to only derail once again.

(500mb Soundings Sep-5 & Oct-19)

It is the time from October through November that the cycle regenerates (jet strengthens) leading us into the new cycle. Following along allows us to notice the signs of the previous cycle morphing into the new cycle. Amazing and very, very exciting! If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. The 2011-12 LRC calendar can be found here and is also accessible from the LRC Analysis Tools section in the upper right portion of the blog. Thanks for reading!

Consecutive LRC Cycle Years & Repeat 'Signature' Features Within Them

In the debate of previous cycle year patterns repeating in the new cycle year, I took the time to analyze two specific back to back cycle years. 1977-78/78-79 and 2009-10/10-11. While certain 'signature' features seem to repeat, the overall patterns are quite different. For the storm that was labeled the 'signature' storm in 2010-11 it doesn't surprise me that a conclusion could be made from a GFS forecast model that it may repeat in the 2011-12 cycle year. However, I am confident that the patterns leading up to it and following it are/will be different. I will provide links to my analysis below.

LRC 1977 thru 1979
For the 1977-79 time frame I choose one 'signature' feature to follow. To get a better glimpse of what the LRC calendar looked like for that time period please follow the Calendar7779 link. Click on the links below to bring up the maps for those days and follow the cycle through starting with Jan-9, 1978 and Jan-4, 1979. The signature feature in the middle atmosphere is noticeable, but as the days stray from the feature the pattern takes on a different look and feel from one another. See the Calendar7779 for daily surface observations as well. You will need the DjVu viewer (link to download below) to open the maps. I recommend it as I believe this is a good example of yearly differences.

1977-78 cycle averaged 59 ish days. (Start with 1/9/78)
http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/dwm/1978/19780109-19780115.djvu
http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/dwm/1978/19780116-19780122.djvu

1978-79 cycle averaged 57 ish days. (Start with 1/4/79)
http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/dwm/1979/19790101-19790107.djvu
http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/dwm/1979/19790108-19790114.djvu

Calendar7779
http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/Calendar7779.html

Original Blog Entry & Data
http://osnw3lrc.blogspot.com/2011/03/oshkosh-winters-of-1977-78-1978-79.html
http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/lrc_7779.xlsx

DjVu Viewer Download
http://www.celartem.com/en/download/djvu.asp#win

LRC 2009 thru 2011
Bringing myself closer to the present and watching events I can actually remember I analyzed the past two years. I defined my time keeper as the signature storm from 2010-11 and followed it back through 2009. It is certainly a feature that could be considered a repeat feature but in reality it is all actually quite different.

Calendar091011
http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/Calendar091011.html

Map links for easy access
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20090925.html
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20091116.html
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20091231.html
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20100223.html
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20100416.html
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20100603.html
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20100724.html
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20100911.html
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20101026.html
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20101211.html

If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading!

The LRC Versus The GFS; Let The Fun Begin

I've been designing several LRC analysis tools the past few months and recently put the final touches on a 500mb height trend tool that will forecast said trends and compare them against the forecasts of the 7-14 day GFS (Global Forecast System). I am hopeful this tool will aid in my learning and understanding of the LRC.

The guts of the tool begin with 3 basic steps; the ability to access daily forecast and observed 500mb heights, extraction of the data into a configurable format and the task of manipulating the data into a structured database. The rest then is up to the beholder. Admittedly, a large amount of work which has culminated into a very user-friendly interface.

At the moment I have two specifics I want to accomplish with this tool. One, provide a sense of confidence in acknowledging when the patterns begin to stray from their predessors. With the past years cycle currently morphing into a new cycle, following the cycle in this manner should do just that. Two, is to contend the GFS 14 day 500mb forecast accuracy with that of the LRC 500mb trend accuracy. A trend that is simply a total mean blend of prior cycle heights. This coming winter season will provide a perfect battle ground. Below is a graph representing the latest cycle forecast period. Incredible how the LRC predicted the latest geopotential height plunge while the 7-14 day GFS forecast failed to do so.

(Green Bay, WI 500mb Forecast using the LRC - Aug 8 thru Sep 26, 2001)

It is noticeable in the graph above that the actual 500mb numbers do not precisely follow the LRC trend. That fault is directly tied to my personal interpretation of the theory as I am using the average amount of days (50) between recurring features. A self interpolation of the trend is required.

I am excited for my sophomore year following the LRC and what will be learned about the cyclic patterns within our atmosphere. For the entire set of the 2010-11 LRC season 500mb height forecast graphs please click here. If there is an interest in learning how to use the tool or obtaining any other tool I used to build it, feel free to inquire. I will be more than happy to share and exchange ideas. It is conceivable that this tool can be used for any location that has the required data available.

If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading!

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Tools (right click - save as)
- Daily 500mb Height Extraction
- GFS Forecast 500mb Height Extraction
- 500mbDailyForecast Dynamic Data & Charts

If there are any problems or questions let me know.

Waiting For The Next Genesis

We are now entering September and I want to keep track of where we are in the LRC patterns that we grew to love last year. I think the two maps below suggest we are still in the same pattern.

Sep 25, 2010

Sep 4, 2011

Almost identical and about a year apart in LRC terms. 345 days apart. Roughly 49 days per cycle as we are in the seventh cycle of the 2010-2011 LRC.

The warm up we are experiencing is the "big warm up" we've been talking about during each cycle this past year here in the Midwest through the Great Lakes region.

Sep 22, 2010
Nov 11, 2010
Dec 31, 2010
Feb 18, 2011
Apr 10, 2011
May 31, 2011
Jul 17, 2011
Sep 1, 2011

It will be interesting to see what happens in middle October when it cycles back around. It's been ingrained into my brain that the cycle will change come October as the troughs and ridges set up in slightly different areas of the continent.  I hope we can pool our efforts and watch the new cycle come alive! Exciting times!

And on that note, I admit, my time allotted for this analysis is limited so watching it live from last September until now is all I have currently, but if I had extra time I would follow this back into September of 2009 and see where the pattern was back then and watch it through the 2009-10 LRC year, etc.

The dates I chose to analyze were derived from the LRC calendar I try to keep up to date as best I can. The calendar can be found here. If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading.

The LRC; Full Circle

The weekend of August 13-14 was the annual Oshkosh City Golf Tournament held at Lakeshore Municipal Golf Course. 180 golfers competed in flighted championships complete with galleries of golf fanatics and press photographers. Back in July our friend Steve Ziblut, the professional at Lakeshore, asked me about the potential weather forecast for the event based on the LRC. It was an exciting time as it was to be my first LRC based forecast for an actual reason. The forecast was uncharted territory for me as this is my first year following the LRC and the fact that it is common talk among the LRC professionals that forecasting potential weather in August using the LRC is a bit tricky with the weakening of the jet and it retreating north. I "officially" responded to him on July 29 after a thorough analysis of the 2010/11 cycle. A very small and to the point snippet of the forecast text I sent him via email is below.

"I would suspect a chance of a thunderstorm Fri/Sat with drier and cooler air on Sun. Temps in the low 80s upper 70s."

Regardless of what was to happen weather wise after I made the forecast, I felt good about the forecast I gave him using the LRC and figured I would learn from it exponentially, so there was nothing to lose. Turns out the forecast verified and better yet, Oshkosh lucked out on Saturday, August 13 as the storms pushed south of the area keeping us dry. On Sunday, August 14 the air was clean and crisp with mostly sunny skies.

Maps and surface data that helped me come to my forecast conclusion are below. I really liked what the 500mb map of June 22, 2011 was showing, and following the cycle back into last September, I liked what September 3, 2010 was showing me as well. The virtual bookend months of the LRC, September and June, gave a good premise for the cycle maintaining itself into August!

(500mb map from Sep-3, 2010)

(500mb map from Jun-22, 2011)

(500mb map from Aug-13, 2011) 

(LRC 2010-2011 Full Circle)
Jul-15, 2010
Sep-3, 2010(51)
Oct-20, 2010(48)
Dec-3, 2010(45)
Jan-24, 2011(53)
Mar-14, 2011(50)
May-2, 2011(50)
Jun-22, 2011(52)
Aug-13, 2011(53)

With the 'signature' storm scheduled for another return this weekend, August 20th, I will turn my research towards the trough and ridge setups from the past LRC year and try to pick up on any variations for this upcoming LRC year. I will be updating my LRC calendar with the focus of following another cycle year with comparisons to the previous cycle year. I will be graphing the 500mb data, highlighting the days in the calendar for a graphical 'seasonal' view of the events such as; the Great Lakes Cyclone and the cold spell after the March version keeping winter around until April, the unexpected early June heat wave and how it didn't pan out a second time in July and the Oshkosh City Tournament weekend with it's exceptional showing of the LRC coming full circle. However, more importantly, the completion of the spreadsheet that will compare LRC based 500mb forecasts versus GFS 500mb forecasts. Looking forward to it.

The dates I chose to analyze were derived from the LRC calendar I try to keep up to date as best I can. The calendar can be found here. If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading.

The 'Big Warm Up" Repeats Again

The 'Big Warm Up' as named by WeatherWatch12 this year is the part of the pattern that brought Oshkosh an Indian summer in late September and early November, an exceptionally warm New Years Eve, subsequent warm-ups in mid February, early April, late May, and now this weekend. It's evident from the maps below that the jet stream and pattern features are further north but yet still plainly visible into mid July. It's gonna get hot this weekend and early next week (Jul 16-18).

(500mb map from May-31)

(500mb forecast from Jul-12 for Sunday Jul-17)

For more information on this part of the pattern please click on the "WeatherWatch12" text linked above. Jeremy Nelson drops knowledge on this feature and it's recurrence in this years LRC. I also had an entry about this part of the pattern back in April, it can be found here.

The dates I chose to analyze were derived from the LRC calendar I try to keep up to date as best I can. The calendar can be found here. If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading.

A Biography of the 2010-2011 LRC 'Signature Storm'

As the ‘signature storm’ approaches, I think it provides a good lesson on how the cycling patterns change through the seasons. It is evident that the feature, the 'signature storm', exists and that a ridge is setting up in relatively the same spot in similar type seasons like May and Sep if you believe we can go that far back. I like Sep 10 and Jun 30 forecast 500mb maps, 294 days apart, which averages 49 days. The 2010-2011 LRC is cycling between 45 and 54 days.

(Sep 10, 2010 - Cycle A)

(Jun 30, 2011 - Cycle 6 - Forecast)

Exciting to see the seasonal twists as the jet becomes more powerful peaking in Feb and then weakening as we roll through into Jul and Aug. The 500mb plots of the 'signature storm' cycle 1 through 5 are linked below.

Oct 26, 2010
Dec 11, 2010
Feb 1, 2011
Mar 22, 2011
May 11, 2011

For the sake of labeling and keeping a tracking system closely related to the professionals, I labeled Aug 1 through the first 50 days this season "Cycle A" and then each cycle after that numerically 1-6.

The dates I chose to analyze were derived from the LRC calendar I try to keep up to date as best I can. The calendar can be found here. If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading.

Early June Analysis: A Heat Wave?

Much of our region just endured the first significant heat wave of the season. This heat wave came relatively 'out of no where' according to the 2010-11 LRC trends, or at least how I interpret the trends. On average, the 7-10 day period after the "big warm-up" was followed by average to below average temperatures each time through the cycle. Looking at the maps below it is obvious the Nov, Jan, Feb, and Apr maps look similar while the Oct, and Jun maps look similar.

(Oct 5, 2010) 

(Nov 19, 2010) 46 days from Oct 5

(Jan 7, 2011) 51 days from Nov 19

(Feb 25, 2011) 49 days from Jan 7

(Apr 18, 2011) 53 days from Feb 25

(Jun 5, 2011) 49 days from Apr 18

Learning that the pattern takes on seasonal twists and then tracking this part of the pattern back to Oct a thought of "heat wave" could have been speak for this time around. With the jet being weaker and further north it is not out of the question that a large high pressure could take over, like it did somewhat in Oct and certainly did this early Jun. So with that thought I could easily be talked into the idea of when this part of the pattern rolls around the last week of July it could be extremely hot again. Will the patterns keep cycling or will they be fading as summer rolls on? We'll see. I'll be watching and reading what the experts say (linked blogs on right side).

The dates I chose to analyze were derived from the LRC calendar I try to keep up to date as best I can. The calendar can be found here. If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading.

** The dates above the 500mb maps are linked to Tim's Weather blog for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin daily weather reports.  In these reports Tim breaks down the upper air and provides a great discussion for the flow aloft that day.

May 19-21 2011 Spring Itch Classic Forecast Attempt - Bring Your A Game

** Update 5/16 **

The 2011 Spring Itch Classic golf tournament is taking place May 19-21 in the Upper Peninsula of MI. My goal with this forecast is to give the ones attending the event a good idea of what gear they should bring knowing they will be enduring many hours outdoors during these days.

This pattern in each of the cycles has had a persistent northwest flow concentrated near the upper Great Lakes. All the way back to September it was evident in the 500mb plots and surface observations. As the pattern cycled it produced considerably cooler than average temperatures. Surface observations at OSNW3 during this time period regarding cloud cover included at least one full day with mostly sunny skies which would be key in overcoming early morning frost if it were to occur. Precipitation was minimal along with no recorded strong wind events. It is to be noted that what has occurred in and around Northeast WI on the surface is likely to be different than what has occurred on the surface in the UP during this pattern through the cycles. Without researching surface observations from the UP during these time periods, I feel I can still boldly state that temps will be at the least 5-10 degrees cooler than Oshkosh and the chance of a mostly sunny day is less likely due to the proximity of Lake Superior. With that said an overall forecast for this time period based on the LRC can be summed up in few words, in my opinion. Mostly cloudy, cold and breezy with a small chance of an isolated light rain shower. Which means, bring long johns, winter gloves and hats, and rain gear. Keep the shorts at home fellas.

This part of the pattern takes place about a week or so before the 'big warm up' many of us in Northeast WI look forward to in this years LRC. A nice 'night cap' to end the cool and wet period we have all endured many times before this season. How high will the temps climb for a day or two near the end of May giving us a taste of summer? We will wait and see.

(500mb plots)
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20100914.html
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20101031.html
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20101217.html
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20110209.html
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20110329.html

OSNW3 surface observations can be found here.

To help keep LRC dates and data in order I created a LRC calendar. To keep time I highlighted this years signature storm and referenced the above comparisons in similar fashion. The LRC calendar can be found here. If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Good luck to all the golfers!

Thanks for reading!

** Update 5/10 **
Analyzing the latest model run for the 500mb vorticity, wind, and height for Thursday May 19, 2011 the flow doesn't seem to fit any other past cycle flows. Right now the projection is for a south southeast flow. Analyzing the AO and PNA Teleconnections however tell a different story in my opinion. The AO is trending negative and the PNA is mostly trending positive which usually means, if I understand them correctly, cooler times for our neck of the woods. It will be fun to watch the pattern evolve over the next week and a half.

(500mb vorticity, wind, and height forecast on May 10 for May 19)


** Update 5/11 **
And here it is. A complete change from one run to the next. This looks more like it! In the LRC I trust! Stiff north northwest flow early morning on May 19th lessening to a weaker west flow as the week ends. Notice the flow of the map below, compare it with previous cycles by clicking the links above. For a loop of the map below click here.

(500mb vorticity, wind, and height forecast on May 11 for May 19)


** Update 5/16 **
After analyzing the past few 500mb daily height contour maps and the 500mb vorticity, wind, and height forecast for Thu/Fri/Sat it seems I have misinterpreted the seasonal weakening of the jet and the effects it has on the LRC. The pattern will not be as potent from the north northwest as I originally thought back in the beginning of the month. In my eyes the signature storm cut-off from the main flow and is helping prevent the elongated north northwest flow and cool air of previous cycles. I am still learning and as spring turns to summer there is much more to learn. This instance being a great learning experience in my opinion. All in all, this is a GOOD THING. 7 day forecasts from the NWS give the area GOOD to GREAT WEATHER for spring golf in the UP. I would still keep the shorts at home and keep the winter hat, winter gloves and rain gear very close by, but as for the prediction of needing long johns because of the cold, I no longer see a need for them.

To find out more about the Teleconnections mentioned above click on the graphs at the top right.
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Following the Upcoming Storm, a Guest Forecast, and Tee Times

Following the Upcoming Storm
OSNW3 is now entrenched into a very active part of the LRC. Multiple disturbances tracking our direction will only allow a few sunshine days to sneak in here or there until the end of the month. The storm approaching for Tue-Wed this week, Apr 19-20, fits into the LRC with the dates Feb 28, Jan 10, and Nov 22. That is the way I see it at least. Right on schedule. Click on the linked dates for daily surface observations.

(Nov 22, 2010 - RADAR LOOP)


(Jan 10, 2011 - RADAR LOOP)


(Feb 28, 2011 - RADAR LOOP)


(Apr 20, 2011 - FORECAST)


*** The storm was a fun one this time through the cycle dumping 6.4 inches of snow in my backyard. For a storm report click here.

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OSNW3 Guest Forecast
We have guests staying with us next week and of course I wanted to tell them what weather conditions they could/should expect while visiting. Using the LRC model I am able to give them a good idea. It will help in determining what they should pack; winter jackets, spring jackets, snow boots, flip-flops? Yes, granted, they should pack for all seasons when visiting WI in late April, but why pack all of it if it is not necessary.

To start I had to determine each cycle length to the dates in question, Apr 22-27. After plotting the 500mb heights and analyzing the 500mb maps I found that the maps of this time period in previous cycles line up with Apr 25 and as of this writing, the forecast model is somewhat similar. I have a hunch the forecast model will change in time to have more of a similarity with previous occurrences within the LRC. This scenario, analyzed below, should bring precipitation with slightly above average temperatures for the first half of their visit. The second half of their visit things should cool off while keeping precipitation chances likely. We'll see what happens. I told them it's gonna be cold and dreary. Below are 500mb maps showing the time periods of this years LRC that line up with the half way point of their stay. Apr 25.

(Nov 26, 2010 - 500MB TIME LAPSE)


(Jan 16, 2011 - 500MB TIME LAPSE)


(Mar 5, 2011 - 500MB TIME LAPSE)


(Apr 25, 2011 - FORECAST)


Linked with each 500mb map heading (the text in parentheses above each image) is a 500mb map time lapse of a fourteen day period with the day of the map being the tenth day in the period. The red column in the 500mb height graph below is where each day mentioned above is located in the fourteen day analysis period. I would suggest opening each of the time lapse maps individually in QuickTime and manually moving them forward in time comparing the atmospheric flow of each. It provided another great lesson for me in how the cycle breathes and how seasonal affects on the jet manipulate the flow.

(500mb Height Plot)


Below are links to the Aug and Oct version of the period. It is a bit more difficult to see in the maps, but if I am seeing what I am seeing I believe these portions of cycle match up.

Aug 24, 2010
Oct 13, 2010

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Can I Get A Tee Time?
The recent pattern has not been conducive for golfing. It's getting late to still have the clubs in the basement. I am looking even further and perhaps forward to some golf the last weekend of April, will it be conducive? Analyzing the 500mb plots and surface data discussed above it would seem some rain will be threatening a 'weather free' round. Perhaps it'll be warm and in that case a few rain drops are tolerable. It will be do or die no matter what by that point, league starts the following week.

(Nov 30, 2010)


(Jan 20, 2011)


(Mar 8, 2011)


(Apr 29, 2011 - FORECAST)


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To help keep dates and surface data in order I created a LRC calendar. To keep time I highlighted this years signature storm and referenced the above comparisons in similar fashion. The LRC calendar can be found here. If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog.

Thanks for reading!